FanDuel Daily Fantasy Basketball Helper: Monday 4/19/21
The NBA scene changes on a week-to-week, day-to-day, and -- depending on injury news -- even a minute-to-minute basis, making every slate a unique one that requires an ever-changing approach.
With so much changing so quickly, we're here with plenty of tools to help you out. We have daily projections, a matchup heat map, a lineup optimizer, and a bunch of other great resources to help give you an edge.
Daily fantasy NBA is very reliant on opportunity, so you'll need to make sure that you're up-to-date with key injuries and COVID-19 situations. Our projections update up until tip-off to reflect current news and we also have player news updates.
We'll also be coming at you with this primer every day, breaking down a few of the day's top plays at each position.
Please note: When I'm referencing a player's value figure, it is the number of fantasy points scored for every $1,000 in salary. Typically, a value figure of 5.0 (meaning, 5.0 FanDuel points for every $1,000 in salary) is the minimum baseline we'll be targeting.
Let's take a look at who you should target on tonight's nine-game slate, which locks at 7:00 PM Eastern.
This table is via Brandon Gdula's matchup sheet -- it shows the over/under for each game, as well as each team's spread and implied total. The table also includes each squad's offensive rating, adjusted for opponent, as well as opponent-adjusted defensive rating for the opposing team, including the respective league-wide ranks for each of those ratings.
Teams are sorted by their implied total.
Malcolm Brogdon ($7,500) - Point guard is loaded tonight, which could make Brogdon an excellent under-the-radar play. The 28-year-old has posted at least 39 FanDuel points in three of his last four games, including performances of 52.3 and 59.3. Another outing in the 50s isn't out of the question against a San Antonio Spurs squad that has given up the sixth-most fantasy points to point guards, according to numberFire's DvP tool.
Facundo Campazzo ($4,300) - In addition to Jamal Murray, the Denver Nuggets will be without Monte Morris for tonight's bout with the Memphis Grizzlies, which makes Campazzo one of the top value plays on the slate. numberFire's models project the first-year Pro to drop 25 fantasy points in 32 minutes of action, making him the top point-per-dollar at point guard.
Bradley Beal ($8,500) - I highlighted Beal as a top target in today's studs column, despite the fact that he's likely to be chalky. Beal's matchup tonight is mouth-watering, as the Oklahoma City Thunder have allowed the most real-life points and third-most fantasy points to two-guards over their last 15 games, per FantasyPros. The Washington Wizards currently sport an implied total of 121.5, which is four points higher than any other team on the slate. numberFire's algorithm has Beal as the top-projected scorer at the position.
Josh Jackson ($5,500) - The injury report for the Detroit Pistons reads longer than a CVS receipt, which means that Jackson should be in a great position to produce. For their matchup with the Cleveland Cavaliers, Detroit has Jerami Grant, Mason Plumlee, Cory Joseph, Wayne Ellington, Sekou Doumbouya, Dennis Smith, and Rodney McGruder listed as out. Wowza. Jackson has eclipsed 40 FanDuel points in two of his last four games, and facing a Cavs team that's second-most-generous to shooting guards over their last 15 games could allow him to do so again tonight.
Jimmy Butler ($9,300) - Butler is currently listed as questionable, but if he suits up, we'll want to roster him with Tyler Herro, Bam Adebayo, and Victor Oladipo out tonight. With those players off the court this season, Butler is averaging an absurd 1.64 FanDuel points per minute, according to RotoGrinders. The veteran will also benefit from one of the best matchups on the slate -- over their last 15 games, no team has allowed more fantasy points to small forwards than the Houston Rockets.
Bojan Bogdanovic ($5,400) - The Utah Jazz are another team dealing with injuries to key members of their team, as Donovan Mitchell remains out tonight and Derrick Favors and Ersan Ilyasova are questionable. Bojan has recorded 29.6-plus FanDuel points in each of his last four, including two with more than 30. The Los Angeles Lakers have conceded the 12th-most fantasy points to small forwards over their last 15 games.
Tobias Harris ($7,200) - As is the case with pretty much everyone else on this slate, Harris is currently questionable. That said, if he does play, he should prove worthy of his salary. Harris has topped 36 fantasy points in four of his last six games, and he only needs 36 to achieve five-times value (or 5.0 fantasy points for every $1,000 in salary). numberFire's models have him totaling 38.9, resulting in a rock-solid value figure of 5.4.
Isaiah Stewart ($4,800) - I've already mentioned the laundry list of absences for Detroit tonight, and perhaps the prime beneficiary of all of those inactive should be Stewart. In his last two games, Stewart has erupted for 39.9 and 49.7 FanDuel points, and a Cavs interior that's 10th-worst against centers over their last 30 games isn't likely to slow him down.
Joel Embiid ($10,400) - There's a not-so-slight chance that Embiid could go under-rostered tonight given the talent available at center, and we should take advantage. This, no player in the Association averages more FanDuel points on their home court than Embiid (56.4) -- who has more than 60 fantasy points in 9 of his 21 efforts at home. His matchup tonight just makes him all the more enticing, as the Golden State Warriors have surrendered the fourth-most real-life points and rebounds, the most steals, and the fourth-most fantasy points to opposing centers over their last 30 contests.
Tristan Thompson ($4,400) - I wouldn't be stingy at center tonight, but if that is the route you decide to go down, you can do worse than Thompson. With Robert Williams out, Thompson should continue to see plenty of run at the five, a role that has allowed him to eclipse 22 fantasy points in three of his last six games. Meanwhile, the Chicago Bulls have continued to struggle to defend centers, as they rank 29th versus the position in their last 30 games.