3 NBA Player Prop Bets to Target on Monday 4/26/21

Player props can be useful in a variety of ways, from taking advantage of them straight up (to the tune of cold hard cash) to measuring a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy basketball. Here we'll focus on utilizing our projections and a slew of other tools to help make money betting player props.

For this article, we are using the odds provided at NBA Finals odds to pinpoint spots where value can be had tonight.

Please note that betting lines and our player projections may change throughout the day after this article is published.

Darius Bazley Under 18.5 Points (-104)

Our algorithm sees this prop as too high. It projects Darius Bazley for just 15.1 points over 32.0 minutes against the Philadelphia 76ers tonight.

The 76ers are 10th in defensive rating over the past 15 games, allowing 110.0 points per 100 possessions. That's pretty close to the NBA median in that span, so it's not much of an outlier. However, they're a strong defense, and over the past 10 games, they're eighth (109.4) in defensive rating -- and are third over the full season (107.5).

Bazley averages 0.42 points per minute on the season, and that rate would get him to 13.4 points at his projected minutes rate. Against top-10 defenses, his rate plummets to 0.37 points per minute (totaling 11.8 points over 32.0 minutes).

Caveat size large here: his scoring rate has skyrocketed to 0.57 points per minute over the past 15 games, which would get him to 18.2. That is still shy of his prop. In the tougher matchup, we can lean on the under here.

OG Anunoby Over 5.5 Rebounds (-114)

The model at numberFire is projecting OG Anunoby for 6.2 rebounds over 36.1 minutes (0.17 per minute) against the Cleveland Cavaliers.

Cleveland ranks 23rd in rebounding rate over the past 15 games and allows an above-average number of rebounds per 48 minutes to opposing small forwards.

Over the past 10 games, they allow 8.6 boards per 48 minutes to small forwards, the third-highest rate in the NBA in that span and 117.8% of the NBA median on a per-minute basis.

If we scale Anunoby's rebounding rate accordingly for the matchup, he should be able to haul in 7.2 boards over his 36.1 projected minutes. Six boards seems very reasonable.

Coby White Over 2.5 Made Three Pointers (-111)

The Miami Heat allow such a high rate of three-point attempts (46.4%, the highest rate in the NBA) that it's always enticing to bet three-point props against them.

Yes, they play at a slow pace, but their elevated three-point attempt rate allowed still equates to giving up 39.8 three-point attempts per game. That's the second-highest number in the NBA.

So we can boost Coby White's three-point attempt projection as a result. His per-minute average is 0.20 three-point attempts over the full season, which is about where it is over the past 15 games (0.19).

He's only a 34.7% shooter on the year (and 35.0% in his two seasons), but putting it all together, he should be projected for roughly 2.8 makes on 7.9 attempts. That can put us on the over for what would be a third straight game.

In this same matchup two days ago, he went three for nine from beyond the arc, evidencing that the shot attempts should be there.