3 NBA FanDuel Tournament Plays to Target on Tuesday 4/27/21

"One cannot be betrayed if one has no people."

How many times have we been burned by the chalk in NBA DFS?

When it's time to start building GPP lineups, especially for NBA tournaments, the fundamental choice to make is whether or not to buy into the chalk plays of the slate. More than any other sport, the popular plays in the NBA are popular for a reason. Where we often get into trouble in tournaments, however, is when we begin to blindly trust a slate's chalk.

This regular piece will focus on tournaments looking through the lens of the projected chalk plays -- the usual suspects -- of that night's games. In an attempt to understand the context of the slate, this column will look at contrarian plays that help you gain leverage against the competition.

Tuesday's slate is a small six games, but we should still be able to find plenty of options to differentiate off of the night's chalk plays. Let's dig in to see where we can pivot.

Guard

D'Angelo Russell ($6,400) - I live in the Houston area, and back when the Houston Astros were atrocious (105-plus losses in three straight seasons from 2011 to 2013), it became a running joke in the city to look up the viewership numbers after each game. On multiple occasions, the team drew a 0.0 rating, meaning the Nielsen system couldn't identify anyone actually watching the game.

I believe tonight's battle-for-the-basement matchup between the Houston Rockets and Minnesota Timberwolves will end up like that. Unless you have financial interest in this game, why would you watch?

Well, someone has to win, and someone has to produce from each team. I figure Karl-Anthony Towns, Christian Wood, and Kevin Porter Jr. will be ultra-popular considering the game environment, so I like pivoting to a player who has excelled in his new role off the bench and is quickly ramping up his minutes and production.

Russell, after missing two months of action due to injury, is coming off the pine but has recently benefited from crossing the 30-minute mark in back-to-back games, and the fantasy production has followed. He is posting 39.3 FanDuel points per game in his last four contests and faces a Rockets team just as intent on losing as Minnesota is and who ranks dead last against shooting guards on the season (44.55 FanDuel points per game).

This game comes in with a strong 234.5-point implied total, has a 1.5-point spread, and features two teams in the bottom six in defensive rating on the year. Fantasy points should be flowing, but no one is going to blame you if you don't tune in to watch. Just lock in Russell and reap the rewards.

Forward

Khris Middleton ($7,700) - There are two prime chalk candidates at small forward tonight. Jaylen Brown will be without both Jayson Tatum and Kemba Walker and plays the defensively inept Oklahoma City Thunder. And as I just mentioned, Kevin Porter Jr. plays the Timberwolves with the bonus of John Wall being shut down for the season. These two will find themselves on a tremendous amount of rosters -- and rightly so.

As a similar salary range pivot to Brown, however, Middleton is someone I will sprinkle in considering the strong matchup he finds himself in and that we get a timely salary drop after a true dud of a performance on Saturday.

Against the Philadelphia 76ers on April 24th, Middleton scored only 7.9 FanDuel points in 20 minutes, which is his worst fantasy game of at least the past two seasons if my research is correct. Consequently, his salary is now the lowest it has been since early April, just in time for a matchup with the Charlotte Hornets. The Hornets allow the fifth-most FanDuel points to opposing small forwards this season (43.64 per game) and are in the bottom 10 in defensive rating over their last 12 games as they have featured a new small-ball lineup.

Don't expect Middleton to match the gaudy usage and overall points that Porter and Brown might produce, but pairing Middleton with one of them makes for a sneaky pivot in tournaments.

Center

Jusuf Nurkic ($8,200) - At just $9,700, the aforementioned Towns is going to be incredibly popular. His salary is $1,000 less than it was just a week ago, and he gets to face a Houston squad that allows the third-most FanDuel points per night to opposing centers this season (57.18). The Rockets have actually been worse against centers in their past 14 games, permitting 65.1 FanDuel points per game to fives.

But I predict KAT might just be out-produced by Nurkic today. The Bosnian Beast has been an absolute monster in his last two games, averaging 21 points, 18 rebounds, and five assists in only 29 minutes per night on the floor. He has finally taken over the majority of the minutes from Enes Kanter and is showing no signs of slowing down.

And while Towns might have a stellar matchup, Nurkic is actually walking into a goldmine of fantasy production for centers against the Indiana Pacers.

Let's start with the season-long numbers. On the year, the Pacers allow the most FanDuel points to opposing centers at 58.84. But in their last seven games, that number balloons to 73.13 per night. With no Myles Turner, Domantas Sabonis, or Goga Bitadze, the Pacers have been forced to play 6-foot-7 JaKarr Sampson and 6-foot-7 Oshae Brissett at center. The results have been predictable, with Indiana hemorrhaging points to centers.

Nurkic should be the latest to dominate Indiana, so be sure you're on board even if his expected roster percentage starts creeping higher.