NBA Betting Guide for Tuesday 5/4/21: 3 Bets Our Algorithm Likes
Betting on the NBA can get a little overwhelming throughout the season because there are games every day, and there's just a lot to track throughout the season and entering every night -- spreads, over/unders, injuries, and so on.
But you can rely on numberFire to help. We have a detailed betting algorithm that projects out games to see how often certain betting lines hit, and our oddsFire section of the site allows you to track movement in those lines and see where the action is coming from on particular games.
Where do our algorithm, our power rankings, and the betting trends identify value in tonight's games? (All odds from NBA Finals odds.)
Phoenix Suns at Cleveland Cavaliers
These two teams couldn't be much further apart in the standings -- the Phoenix Suns are 46-18, and the Cleveland Cavaliers are 21-43 -- but over the past 15 games, things are kind of interesting.
The Suns' net rating has been +3.8 over their last 15, which has led to a record of 11-4. The Cavaliers are just 4-11 with a net rating of -3.5, which isn't completely terrible.
However, these are two of the 10 slowest teams in that span, and that can lead to tighter games naturally. Using this data, my model projects a much tighter game than the 13.0-point spread suggests: 7.0 points.
Our algorithm is rating the Cavaliers +13.0 as a two-star recommendation. They won't win, but 13 points is quite large, according to the betting models.
Sacramento Kings at Oklahoma City Thunder
This game is receiving a ton of bets on the under (75%), and that's telling, but what's more telling is the percentage of money on the over despite that: 60%.
The over opened at 228.5 on FanDuel Sportsbook before climbing down a point and then back up half a point to settle at 228.0.
Our algorithm is keen on the over, as well, and it's hard to turn down highlighting a spot that our model and some smart money indications are pointing to. Our model projects this game to score 229 points 65.5% of the time.
The Oklahoma City Thunder have hit the over in 52.4% of their 21 games since the trade deadline and in 5 of their past 7. The Sacramento Kings have been a lot less friendly (40.0% of their post-deadline games), but they are league-average in offensive efficiency over the past 15 games.
Toronto Raptors at Los Angeles Clippers
There is heavy betting action on the over (219.5) in this game, stemming from 75% of the betting tickets and 81% of the money. Our algorithm is on board with that, too: the over is a two-star recommendation out of five.
In total, our model sees this tilt going to 220 points 60.6% of the time. The median point total here is 224.6 points, per our algorithm.
Over their past 10 games, the Toronto Raptors have hit the over half the time, and for the Los Angeles Clippers, they've done it just twice.
But Kawhi Leonard missed most of those, and with him, the Clippers have an offensive rating of 122.0, which is 4.9 points higher than any other team's this season. Using the Raptors' past 15 and the Clippers' splits with Kawhi, my model sees a total of 224.5 points.
