NBA Odds Update: The Best Championship Bets to Make With the Postseason Looming
In this edition of the 2020-21 NBA Championship Odds Update, we’ll look at which teams saw their numberFire title odds move the most over the last six weeks -- that will give us a better snapshot of the landscape of the league. You can read our last update here.
Teams that had strong stretches and are looking like cohesive units will likely see the most upward movement, while those that had it rough could see their odds spiraling.
Now, here's a look at the teams who had the most upward movement in title odds over the month of action.
Current numberFire Championship Probability: 33.7%
Previous numberFire Championship Probability: 21.1%
FanDuel Sportsbook Championship Odds: +650
Though they've certainly had their ups and downs since the All-Star break, the Utah Jazz are (by far) our model's favorite bet to win it all, with their 33.7% likelihood dwarfing the next-closest team -- the Philadelphia 76ers -- by a whopping 18.7 percentage points.
To date, Utah has the league's best net rating at 8.9, 2.6 points better than the next-best team. The Jazz enter today ranking fourth in the Association in offensive efficiency and third on the offensive end. That'll play.
Now, there's a gap the size of the grand canyon between what our model perceives as Utah's chances to win the title and what their betting odds imply. Over at FanDuel Sportsbook, a championship bet on the Jazz is currently listed at +650, which implies a 13.3% probability of occurrence -- again, our algorithm is at 33.7%.
Current numberFire Championship Probability: 8.9%
Previous numberFire Championship Probability: 6.5%
FanDuel Sportsbook Title Odds: +1600
In the last edition of this series, the Phoenix Suns were featured and were priced at 30/1 -- that's essentially been cut in half. That said, our model still sees some value here.
Phoenix has been one of the more consistent teams in the league since the bubble last season, and their net rating of 6.3 ranks behind only the Jazz this season. The Suns are top-seven in both defensive and offensive efficiency, and by all accounts, they look like legitimate title contenders.
At +1600, the Suns have 5.9% implied odds to hoist the Larry O'Brien Trophy when it's all said and done, and that's still a far cry from our model's 8.9% probability. With the Los Angeles Lakers (+460) looking particularly vulnerable in the West, betting on Phoenix is far from the worst idea.
Current numberFire Championship Probability: 15.0%
Previous numberFire Championship Probability: 12.7%
FanDuel Sportsbook Title Odds: +1200
The Philadelphia 76ers have won five in a row and currently possess a one-game lead for home court in the Eastern Conference. Given that the Sixers are 56-11 at home over their last two seasons, getting that advantage would be huge for their title chances.
Philly currently ranks as the second-best defensive team in the league behind only the Lakers. They're no slouch on the offensive end, as their 112.1 rating ranks as slightly above average so far this season.
numberFire's algo gives the 76ers a 15% chance to be crowned champions at the conclusion of the season, which is nearly double that of what is implied by their +1200 odds (7.7%). Like the two teams covered above, there seems to be value in betting on Philadelphia.