NBA

NBA Betting Guide for Wednesday 5/5/21: Why the Data Likes the Grizzlies Tonight

Betting on the NBA can get a little overwhelming throughout the season because there are games every day, and there's just a lot to track throughout the season and entering every night -- spreads, over/unders, injuries, and so on.

But you can rely on numberFire to help. We have a detailed betting algorithm that projects out games to see how often certain betting lines hit, and our oddsFire section of the site allows you to track movement in those lines and see where the action is coming from on particular games.

Where do our algorithm, our power rankings, and the betting trends identify value in tonight's games? (All odds from FanDuel Sportsbook.)

Sacramento Kings at Indiana Pacers

These two teams are still flashing some playoff life -- barely for the Sacramento Kings at 0.5% and less than likely for the Indiana Pacers at 39.6%, according to our algorithm -- but one thing is for sure: their defenses are reeling.

They rank 30th and 22nd, respectively, in adjusted defensive rating since the trade deadline. That's partly why the over/under here is 239.5 points.

But. My model -- fully aware of their poor defenses and average offenses -- is anticipating this game to get to 236.5 points and thus stay under the 239.5 mark 59.8% of the time.

That's supported by heavy betting action on the under: 78% of the betting ticket and 83% of the money are coming in on the under in this game.

Memphis Grizzlies at Minnesota Timberwolves

Since the trade deadline, these two teams, despite similar records, are pretty far apart in terms of efficiency.

The Memphis Grizzlies are 11-12 with a net rating of 1.1 (and of 4.5 when adjusted for opponents, per my data). The Minnesota Timberwolves are 10-11 with a net rating of -3.7 (but -11.8 when adjusted for opponents faced; they've played a lot of good teams but also a lot of bad teams and got blown out by the good teams often).

Now, Minnesota was on a four-game winning streak before an overtime loss to the New Orleans Pelicans on Saturday, and I think that's causing the line to shift a lot.

The Grizzlies are 2.5-point favorites, and our algorithm at numberFire sees the median margin of victory to be 5.2 for Memphis.

My model sees it as 8.4. The betting public is placing 68% of the bets and 73% of the money on the Grizz.

San Antonio Spurs at Utah Jazz

The Utah Jazz are 6.0-point favorites but are without both Mike Conley and Donovan Mitchell, a split in which they are 3-2 on the season, via PBPStats.

That sample comes with an offensive rating of 119.4 and a defensive rating of 112.4, for a net rating of 7.0, which would rank them as the second-best team in the NBA on the full season behind only their usual 8.9 net rating.

The San Antonio Spurs, since the trade deadline, have a net rating of -0.2 and an adjusted net rating of -1.3, according to my data.

Our model at numberFire is rating the Jazz -6.0 as a three-star recommendation and their moneyline (-260) as a full five-star recommendation.

The Spurs are clinging to playoff hopes (13.2% odds, according to our algorithm), but the Jazz are a powerhouse team even without their top guards.

The Jazz are receiving 62% of the tickets and 58% of the money to cover the spread, and we have seen it tick down from 7.0 at the open to 6.0 now.

There's not a lot of uncertainty on the moneyline (89% of the money is on Utah), so you can lay the -260 for a near lock, but playing the spread is also looking like a winner.