3 NBA Player Prop Bets to Target on Thursday 5/13/21

Player props can be useful in a variety of ways, from taking advantage of them straight up (to the tune of cold hard cash) to measuring a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy basketball. Here we'll focus on utilizing our projections and a slew of other tools to help make money betting player props.

For this article, we are using the odds provided at NBA Finals odds to pinpoint spots where value can be had tonight.

Please note that betting lines and our player projections may change throughout the day after this article is published.

Nikola Vucevic Over 2.5 Made Three-Pointers (+142)

Nikola Vucevic has a great matchup tonight to get to this over on his made treys pop. Vucevic and the Chicago Bulls are facing a Toronto Raptors team that permits a 43.3% three-point attempt rate, the third-highest in the league.

Vucevic has been letting it fly from deep lately, averaging seven three-point attempts per night over his past six. He went 3 of 6 from three the last time he saw the Raps. Given the matchup, Vucevic should get up plenty of three-point shots today.

Our model projects him for exactly 2.5 made threes versus Toronto, but with a +142 price on the over and -184 on the under, I side with the over.

Dejounte Murray Under 16.5 Points (-122)

Dejounte Murray and the San Antonio Spurs have a tough draw against the New York Knicks. It's a particularly difficult spot for Murray as the Knicks have bottled up opposing point guards this season.

For the year, New York is surrendering just 22.2 points per game to floor generals, the third-fewest. That number drops to 20.9 if we look at only the past 15 games. Overall, the Knicks rank last in pace and own the fourth-best defensive efficiency.

Murray has netted 16-plus points in just two of his past six games, and that includes going for 15 points apiece in dreamy dates with the Brooklyn Nets and Portland Trail Blazers -- both of whom are in the top four for most points allowed to point guards.

We project Murray for 15.3 points against Toronto.

Michael Porter Jr. Over 7.5 Rebounds (-120)

The Denver Nuggets are in a big pace-up spot versus the Minnesota Timberwolves, who play at the fourth-fastest pace, compared to Denver's eighth-slowest pace. It's also a great matchup for the Nuggets because Minnesota just isn't good, especially on D, where they hold the fifth-worst defensive rating.

Those things have me looking through the overs on Denver's players, and MPJ's rebounding prop stands out with Minny allowing 8.3 rebounds per game to small forwards, the second-most. That's up to 8.4 boards per contest over the last 15 games.

While Porter is pulling down just 7.2 rebounds per night in 21 games without Jamal Murray, our model has this matchup giving him a boost. Our algorithm has MPJ snagging 8.6 boards in this one.