NBA Betting Guide for Friday 5/28/21: The Trends and Projections Align on a Pair of Unders
Betting on the NBA can get a little overwhelming throughout the season because there are games every day, and there's just a lot to track throughout the season and entering every night -- spreads, over/unders, injuries, and so on.
But you can rely on numberFire to help. We have a detailed betting algorithm that projects out games to see how often certain betting lines hit, and our oddsFire section of the site allows you to track movement in those lines and see where the action is coming from on particular games.
Spread: Atlanta Hawks -4.0
Of tonight's three games, our model and oddsmakers fall in line most closely on this one. There is a sliver of value on the under, and the trends point that way, too.
Over the New York Knicks' last seven games, the under has won out six times -- and by an average of 9.3 points. The average total in those games were 213.0 points. Tonight's line is 211.0 points. The Hawks, meanwhile, have seen their last five games go under the posted total.
In Game 1, we got 212 total points, hitting the under by 1.0 point. In Game 2, the Knicks and Hawks teamed up for just 193 points, going under by 19.5 points.
We're predicting 209.8 points to be scored in this game, which is a touch under the 211.0-point total. It's not much, but in a game that doesn't offer good betting value, per our numbers, it's the best we got.
Spread: Brooklyn Nets -8.0
If you've been reading these betting guides this postseason, you'll know our model likes the Boston Celtics. That's still the case. We actually have the C's -- who are 8.0-point 'dogs -- winning this game 56.6% of the time. We rate Boston to cover and win outright as five-star wagers.
But the Nets are a tough team for projection systems because they've had their best lineup for so few games this season. And on the flip side, with Jaylen Brown out, the Celtics are worse than what we saw most of the year. In short, we're getting a lesser version of Boston while the Nets are rounding into their best form -- and we don't know how high the Nets' ceiling is.
That's why the public is hammering the Nets, and we're seeing a little sharp money in a few spots. Per oddsFire, 89% of the tickets and 94% of the money coming in on the spread is backing Brooklyn to cover as 8.0-point favorites. The moneyline is the same story, with 98% of money and 92% of bets taking the Nets. On the total, 74% of the bets and 79% of the money is on the over (226.0).
The trends favor a Nets cover, as well. In Boston's last seven games as a home underdog, they've covered only once. The Nets have covered or pushed in 11 of their last 12 games as a favorite.
Spread: Los Angeles Clippers -2.5
These betting lines are super interesting, especially the spread. Despite losing the first two games at home -- by 10 and 6 points -- the Clippers are 2.5-point road favorites tonight at the Dallas Mavericks.
Our algorithm has that flipped as we're projecting the Mavs to win 108.66-106.07. That opens up a few avenues for betting value.
The obvious ones are taking the Mavs to win or cover. We give Dallas a 59.7% chance to win outright and 61.2% odds of covering as 2.5-point 'dogs. Those bets are rated as three- and two-star wagers, respectively.
The trends back Dallas, too. Over their last four games as an underdog, the Mavericks have covered in all four, and they've done so by an average of 12.3 points. The Clips, meanwhile, have covered just twice over their last 10 road games (with one push).
The other place our algorithm sees some value in on the total. Our projection results in 214.8 points, and the total is set at 219.0 points. We have the under hitting 57.8% of the time. The trends fall in line as each of the Mavs' last six games as a home underdog have gone under the total.