NBA Player Prop Bets to Target on Friday 6/4/21
Player props can be useful in a variety of ways, from taking advantage of them straight up (to the tune of cold hard cash) to measuring a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy basketball. Here we'll focus on utilizing our projections and a slew of other tools to help make money betting player props.
For this article, we are using the odds provided at FanDuel Sportsbook to pinpoint spots where value can be had tonight.
Please note that betting lines and our player projections may change throughout the day after this article is published.
Luka Doncic to Score 30-Plus Points/Dallas to Win (+255)
Luka Doncic is -130 to score 30-plus points, and the over/under on his points prop is set at 31.5 (with -112 on the over). So while 30 points is a high bar, this player performance double is more about the Dallas Mavericks winning than Luka getting a 30 piece.
Despite Dallas being a 3.0-point home 'dog, our algorithm really likes them tonight. We give the Mavs a 59% chance to win and project the final score to be 108.47-106.08 in favor of Dallas. Counting the postseason, the Mavs and Los Angeles Clippers have met eight times this season. Dallas has won five of them and covered the spread in seven.
In addition to projecting Dallas to win, our model has Doncic pegged for 30.4 points. He's scored at least 31 in four of five games in this series, with the lone exception being LA's blowout win in Game 4.
With the price at +255, this is a nice bet to zero in on.
Kawhi Leonard Under 8.5 Rebounds (-134)
As you'd expect with only one game tonight, the prop lines are pretty tight. This is one of the few spots with much of a discrepancy between our projections and the betting line.
Over the last four games in this series, Kawhi Leonard has 5, 10, 8 and 6 boards -- going over this 8.5 line just once. For the year, he pulled down only 6.5 rebounds per night. His best rest split for his rebounding numbers is on one day of rest, but even then, it's just 7.3 rebounds per game.
Our model projects Leonard to snag 7.1 rebounds tonight, so, really, nothing points to him getting nine-plus rebounds.