NBA Betting Guide for Tuesday 6/8/21: The Odds and Public Like the Home Teams Tonight
Betting on the NBA can get a little overwhelming throughout the season because there are games every day, and there's just a lot to track throughout the season and entering every night -- spreads, over/unders, injuries, and so on.
But you can rely on numberFire to help. We have a detailed betting algorithm that projects out games to see how often certain betting lines hit, and our oddsFire section of the site allows you to track movement in those lines and see where the action is coming from on particular games.
Where do our algorithm, our power rankings, and the betting trends identify value in tonight's games? (All odds from NBA Finals odds.)
Atlanta Hawks (+205) at Philadelphia 76ers (-250)
Spread: Philadelphia 76ers -6.0
Total: 224.5
The Atlanta Hawks carved out a 1-0 series lead with a 128-124 win in the opener. They got out to a 42-27 lead at the end of the first quarter and were up 74-54 at halftime.
Despite that, the oddsmakers are heavy on the 76ers to even out the series, giving them a -250 moneyline and a 6.0-point spread. Those -250 odds suggest a 71.4% win probability, and our model at numberFire sees it even higher at 79.7%. That makes the 76ers' moneyline a three-star recommendation, according to our algorithm.
In accordance, we're seeing heavy action on the 76ers' moneyline by way of 66% of the tickets and 84% of the money.
The average projected score is a 112.7-103.7 win for the 76ers, per our model, which still only makes Philadelphia -6.0 a one-star recommendation. This coincides with the betting public, which has put a serendipitous 76% of the money on the 76ers to cover.
As always, the public loves the over, and we're seeing 90% of the money on the over in this matchup. The past two games between these two did hit the over, but the first two fell short. numberFire's model sees this game staying under that total 65.9% of the time, making it a three-star recommendation.
The agreement here is on the 76ers' moneyline and spread.
Los Angeles Clippers (+134) at Utah Jazz (-158)
Spread: Utah Jazz -3.5
Total: 221.5
This opening game in the Western Conference is much tighter with the spread and moneylines by comparison. The Utah Jazz are -126 to win the series and are -158 to win the opener.
We do see some additional agreement with the home side here. numberFire's model rates Utah's moneyline (-158) as a three-star recommendation and Utah -3.5 as a two-star bet of its own.
The public is siding with the well-rested Jazz over the just-played-a-seven-game-series Los Angeles Clippers. oddsFire shows 65% of the money on the Jazz moneyline and 72% of the money on the Jazz spread, both of which outperform the corresponding ticket percentage (53% and 63%, respectively). We can impute some bigger bettors are in on Utah here.
Aaaaand as typical, the model loves the under, rating this game as 65.4% likely to stay under 220 points, yet the public loves the over: 79% of the bets and 87% of the money is on the over. In three meetings this year, the under is 2-0-1, the push coming in their final meeting on February 19th.
My model leans on the under, but why not simply side with the consensus on the Jazz moneyline and spread?
