NBA

NBA Betting Guide for Wednesday 6/9/21: Can Denver Even Out the Series Against Phoenix?

Betting on the NBA can get a little overwhelming throughout the season because there are games every day, and there's just a lot to track throughout the season and entering every night -- spreads, over/unders, injuries, and so on.

But you can rely on numberFire to help. We have a detailed betting algorithm that projects out games to see how often certain betting lines hit, and our oddsFire section of the site allows you to track movement in those lines and see where the action is coming from on particular games.

Where do our algorithm, our power rankings, and the betting trends identify value in tonight's games? (All odds from FanDuel Sportsbook.)

Denver Nuggets (+180) at Phoenix Suns (-215)

Spread: Phoenix Suns -5.5
Total: 223.0

Game 1 of this series was tight through the first quarter (tied at 28) and at halftime (the Denver Nuggets led by 1), but the Suns won the third quarter by 10 points and the fourth quarter by 8 for their 17-point victory.

Four Suns -- Mikal Bridges, Devin Booker, Chris Paul, and Deandre Ayton -- scored at least 20 points for a balanced attack, and only MVP Nikola Jokic got there for the Nuggets.

I always like when numberFire's betting model agrees with the betting public, but we don't have that here. Like, at all.

numberFire's model is anticipating a 63.4% chance for the Suns to move to 2-0 in the series. However, those win odds imply a moneyline of -173, so it's tough to back them at -215.

For that reason, it's actually Denver's moneyline (+180) that's getting the slight recommendation from our algorithm. The expected return is just 2.5%.

The betting public is willing to forge ahead with the Suns at -215 (down from -240 at the open) regardless. oddsFire shows 68% of the bets and 80% of the money is on Phoenix to win again.

As for the spread, numberFire's model also slightly likes the Nuggets's side (+5.5), seeing them covering 56.4% of the time for a one-star recommendation out of five and an expected return of 7.6%.

Once more, though, the betting public is siding with Phoenix and has placed 64% of the money on spread bets on the favorite to cover.

I could copy and paste this next section here, but the public loves the over (91% of the money is on the over).

Three of the four games between these teams did go over the posted total, but despite that, our algorithm is rating the under as a three-star recommendation out of five. Of the 25 most similar games to this one, historically, 21 of them hit the under.

Of note, the Nuggets are expecting Michael Porter Jr. and also possibly Will Barton to play in Game 2.

In games with both of them, the Nuggets are 31-15 this season with a point differential of 4.8. A 4.8-point point differential implies an expected winning percentage of around 66.0%, which checks out with their actual in-split record.

Using those relevant samples for this game, my betting model sees this one as quite close, expecting the Nuggets to cover the spread around 64.0% of the time. The under is also rating out as 54.7% likely.

The two data-driven models are more keen on the Nuggets to keep it close and for this game to play to the under. That's where I'm winding up tonight.