3 NBA Player Prop Bets to Target on Tuesday 6/22/21
Player props can be useful in a variety of ways, from taking advantage of them straight up (to the tune of cold hard cash) to measuring a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy basketball. Here we'll focus on utilizing our projections and a slew of other tools to help make money betting player props.
For this article, we are using the odds provided at NBA Finals odds to pinpoint spots where value can be had tonight.
Please note that betting lines and our player projections may change throughout the day after this article is published.
Jae Crowder Over 2.5 Made Three-Pointers (+100)
Our algorithm likes this line for Jae Crowder's made threes, projecting him for 2.9 made triples tonight.
The Los Angeles Clippers are allowing a 46.5% three-point attempt rate this postseason, which is the second-highest among all playoff teams and the highest of the four remaining squads.
Crowder hit seven treys in Game 1 of this series, and he's made at least three trifectas in seven of his last eight games.
A lot of things point to the over on this one, and the +100 price is pretty appealing.
Paul George Under 8.5 Rebounds (-110)
In the regular season, the Phoenix Suns allowed the third-fewest rebounds per game to small forwards (6.7). In Game 1, Paul George snagged just four boards versus the Suns.
George does see a boost in his rebounding totals sans Kawhi Leonard. PG pulled down 9 and 16 boards in the final two games against the Utah Jazz, but in the regular season, his rate of rebounds per 100 possessions didn't increase that much when Kawhi was off the floor -- 10.1 per 100 possessions with Leonard and 10.9 without, per NBAWowy.
Given the tough matchup and the not-that-significant rebounding boost without Leonard, the under looks like the play here. Our projections agree, forecasting George for just 7.9 rebounds in Game 2.
Devin Booker Under 31.5 Points (-110)
Devin Booker went nuts in Game 1, torching the Clips for a 40 piece. He had 34 in the game before that. With Chris Paul out again, it's real scary to go with the under on Booker's points prop, but that's where our model leans.
Prior to the past two games, Booker had gone for more than 31 points just once in his last eight games. Of course, CP3 being out changes things. In the regular season, Booker's usage rate rose by 2.7 percentage points with Paul off the floor, and he averaged 4.0 more points per 100 possessions.
The Clips permitted the fifth-fewest points per game to two-guards in the regular season, although the absence of Leonard undoubtedly hurts LA's defense.
All in all, our projections side with the under, pegging Booker to score 30.6 points tonight.
