NBA Betting Guide for Wednesday 6/23/21: Will the Bucks Cover as Big Favorites in Game 1?
Betting on the NBA can get a little overwhelming throughout the season because there are games every day, and there's just a lot to track throughout the season and entering every night -- spreads, over/unders, injuries, and so on.
But you can rely on numberFire to help. We have a detailed betting algorithm that projects out games to see how often certain betting lines hit, and our oddsFire section of the site allows you to track movement in those lines and see where the action is coming from on particular games.
Where do our algorithm, our power rankings, and the betting trends identify value in tonight's games? (All odds from NBA Finals odds.)
Atlanta Hawks (+275) at Milwaukee Bucks (-340)
Spread: Milwaukee Bucks -8.0
Total: 226.0
The bookmakers are taking a stand in this Game 1, giving the Bucks a -340 moneyline and an 8.0-point spread over the Atlanta Hawks.
This season, we've had three games between these two, and two of them came on or after April 15th, so they're not that outdated.
The Bucks won the first game at home 129-115, but Trae Young did not play. Then they won in Atlanta 120-109. Ten days later, the Hawks got a 111-104 home win.
Just one of these games -- the first -- hit the over (by 18.5 points), and the other two fell shy by 6.5 and 14.0, respectively.
numberFire's model isn't seeing much to recommend -- at least not strongly. It views the Bucks as 79.7% likely to win, turning their moneyline into a two-star recommendation out of five.
The betting public is on the same page for the moneyline: 71% of the bets and 87% of the money is on Milwaukee to get the Game 1 win.
There's no pick on the spread. The median outcome, per our model, is a 9.0-point win for Milwaukee, making it too close to take a side. The public is split on the spread with an even 50% of the money on either side.
There is some slight value on the over, per our model, however, as the expected point total is 228.8 points. The over, then, is rating out as 55.0% likely to hit. It's rare to see the public prefer the under, but that's where it's leaning. Thus far, 71% of the money has been placed on the under.
The primary injury to monitor is with Bogdan Bogdanovic (questionable with a knee injury). Using recent data and accounting for injury news, my model sees this game closer than the 8.0-point spread (expecting a 5.1-point victory for the Bucks).
Considering everything, the under is the place I'll be looking first. From there, I'll just be trusting the Bucks to win outright at home.
