NBA Betting Guide for Thursday 6/24/21: The Algorithm Likes the Clippers to Cover
Betting on the NBA can get a little overwhelming throughout the season because there are games every day, and there's just a lot to track throughout the season and entering every night -- spreads, over/unders, injuries, and so on.
But you can rely on numberFire to help. We have a detailed betting algorithm that projects out games to see how often certain betting lines hit, and our oddsFire section of the site allows you to track movement in those lines and see where the action is coming from on particular games.
Phoenix Suns (-118) at Los Angeles Clippers (+100)
Spread: Phoenix Suns -1.5
Since the start of the playoffs, the Suns have had a 13.1 net rating with Paul on the floor, compared to 4.7 without him, a differential of 8.4 points per 100 possessions. So, while the Suns have been good even without him, they've been elite with him.
Surprisingly, the Clippers have had a net rating of 3.3 with Leonard but 10.3 without him in the playoffs. That in itself suggests that they aren't entirely doomed in this series.
After all, the series is 2-0, but the net rating for the Suns is only 3.8. The bigger issue is that they're getting Paul back.
However, our model isn't that concerned after all.
numberFire's algorithm finds value on the home team and rates the Clippers' moneyline as a four-star recommendation out of five. The model views Los Angeles as 65.3% likely to win outright, giving us clear value on a +100 moneyline.
It stands to reason that the model also likes the Clippers getting 1.5 points. The algo sees the Clippers covering that spread 67.1% of the time. The Clippers spread is also a four-star recommendation as a result.
The public is fairly split on this game. For the moneyline, the Clippers are getting 49% of the bets but 55% of the money.
There's some discrepancy between the over/under between numberFire's model and the public, but the public over trends (59% of the tickets and 64% of the money) are fairly light relative to what they can typically be (the public loves the over).
Our model sees the under as 61.7% likely and rates the wager as a two-star recommendation.