NBA

3 NBA Player Prop Bets to Target on Tuesday 6/29/21

Brandon Gdula  —  @gdula13 Jun 29th, 2021
After a big scoring outing for Khris Middleton in Game 3, our model sees value on his assist prop. Which other props look promising for Game 4?

Player props can be useful in a variety of ways, from taking advantage of them straight up (to the tune of cold hard cash) to measuring a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy basketball. Here we'll focus on utilizing our projections and a slew of other tools to help make money betting player props.

For this article, we are using the odds provided at NBA Finals odds to pinpoint spots where value can be had tonight.

Please note that betting lines and our player projections may change throughout the day after this article is published.

Khris Middleton Over 5.5 Assists (+112)

Khris Middleton took over late in Game 3 to secure a win for the Milwaukee Bucks. He wound up with a stat line that included 38 points, 11 rebounds, and 7 assists.

While the focus was on the scoring overall, his in-series assist totals have been strong at 4, 8, and 7. numberFire projects him for 6.2 assists across 39.9 minutes (0.16 per minute) for Game 4.

This season, Middleton has averaged 0.15 assists per minute, on par with his projection for tonight. At that season-long rate, he'd need to play 40 minutes to get to 6.0 assists -- in line with his expectation.

But we need to keep in mind that there's now plus money on this prop, and that matters. The +112 odds suggest a probability of 47.2%.

Using his seasonal variance and the baseline projection of 6.4 assists, Middleton should be 63.4% likely to hit the over.

John Collins Under 9.5 Rebounds (-115)

John Collins has hauled in 8 rebounds in consecutive games across just 24.0 and 23.2 minutes. He had a 15-rebound game in the opener when he played 37.0 minutes.

numberFire projects Collins to get to 31.7 minutes tonight -- with just 8.2 rebounds (0.26 per minute). Collins' season-long rebounding rate is just that: 0.26 per minute.

So to get to 10, we'd be looking at around 38.5 minutes unless he sees a big boost to his usual rebounding rate.

Collins has 10-plus boards in only 28.6% of his games this season, and at his projection of 8.2 rebounds, we should anticipate Collins staying under 9.5 rebounds at a 66.7% likelihood. That suggests under odds of -200

Clint Capela Over 12.5 Rebounds (+108)

Clint Capela has not been much of a scoring factor in this series, which isn't abnormal for him by any means. Capela has put up 12, 2, and 8 points on 9, 5, and 7 shot attempts, respectively in this series.

He has been making an impact on the boards, though, with 19, 8, and 11 rebounds, and we're getting a plus-money opportunity for his over here.

That helps because numberFire's baseline projection for Capela is 12.4 rebounds.

If we set that as the expectation and inject his seasonal variance, we're getting around even money on either side. For that reason, we can lean on the over at +108 and trust numberFire's baseline projection for Capela to clean the glass in a key game for the Atlanta Hawks.