3 NBA Player Prop Bets to Target on Wednesday 6/30/21
Player props can be useful in a variety of ways, from taking advantage of them straight up (to the tune of cold hard cash) to measuring a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy basketball. Here we'll focus on utilizing our projections and a slew of other tools to help make money betting player props.
For this article, we are using the odds provided at FanDuel Sportsbook to pinpoint spots where value can be had tonight.
Please note that betting lines and our player projections may change throughout the day after this article is published.
Reggie Jackson Under 21.5 Points (-118)
Reggie Jackson has been clinging to consistency with his scoring output in this series: 24, 19, 23, 20, and 23 points. That'd give him three overs at this current prop, but numberFire's projections are on the under for him here.
The algorithm anticipates Jackson for 19.9 points across 38.5 points.
Jackson has averaged 0.47 points per minute this season without Kawhi Leonard. Over 38.5 minutes and that same scoring rate, we should anticipate 18.1 points for Jackson.
Using his baseline of projection of 19.9 points and his usual deviation, Jackson should be 59.3% likely to go under 22 points, suggesting under odds of -146.
Chris Paul Over 4.5 Rebounds (+112)
Chris Paul has tallied just 2, 4, and 3 rebounds thus far in the series in his healthy games. That puts him at 0.08 per minute, which is down drastically from his full-season rebounding rate of 0.14 per minute.
So we're seeing the plus money trend toward the over here due to recency. numberFire projects Paul for 5.1 boards over 38.2 minutes (0.13 per minute).
Relying on the 5.1-rebound projection to simulate out Paul's rebounding total for tonight, we should expect a 60.1% probability that he gets to 5 or more boards. That would come with -151 odds on the over.
Devin Booker Over 2.5 Made Threes (+146)
Let's get weird and chase a big plus-money opportunity.
Devin Booker has made 3, 1, 1, 0, and 4 threes in this series so far on 7, 3, 7, 5, and 6 attempts. That puts him at a 32.1% three-point field goal percentage, shy of his full-season rate of 34.0%.
He's taking 0.14 three-pointers per minute in the series (down from his full-season rate of 0.16 despite the Clippers being pretty generous against the three overall).
He should reach 5 to 7 attempts over his projected workload of 40.0 minutes. It works out to 5.6 at the 0.14 rate and 6.4 at the 0.16 rate.
In all, numberFire projects Booker for 2.2 made threes tonight, close enough to this prop to consider the over given the plus money opportunity.
Using that baseline, Booker is rating out at 40.8% likely to get to three makes, just on par with the +146 odds here. We typically want leverage, but the +146 odds are very fair for a prop.