NBA

NBA Betting Guide for Wednesday 10/20/21: The Grizzlies Are Primed to Start Off Hot

Betting on the NBA can get a little overwhelming throughout the season because there are games every day, and there's just a lot to track throughout the season and entering every night -- spreads, over/unders, injuries, and so on.

But you can rely on numberFire to help. We have a detailed betting algorithm that projects out games to see how often certain betting lines hit, and you can track line movement within games and compare odds over at the oddsFire section of the site.

Where do our algorithm, our power rankings, and the betting trends identify value in tonight's games? (All odds from FanDuel Sportsbook.)

Boston Celtics at New York Knicks

Our algorithm at numberFire is showing some slight value in this game on the New York Knicks' side and views their moneyline (-138) and spread (-2.5) as two-star and one-star bets, respectively. Those are out of five stars and indicate the number of units you should feel comfortable betting on particular plays.

But it's the under (216.0) that is rating as a three-star recommendation rather than the Knicks' performance against the Boston Celtics outright.

Our algorithm's median projection for this contest is 208.7 points, well shy of the posted total. And overall, the under is rating out as 65.4% likely to occur, which suggests an expected return of 24.8%.

Notably, these teams played thrice last season and hit the under all three times. At over/unders of 210.5, 208.0, and 211.5, these matchups fell shy by 30.5, 8.0, and 23.5 points.

Also, October games since 2012 with totals between 210.0 and 220.0 have hit the under at a 52.3% rate, higher than the full-sample rate of 50.4%.

Cleveland Cavaliers at Memphis Grizzlies

The Cleveland Cavaliers will get their first regular-season look at rookie big Evan Mobley, but our model is understandably all over the other side of this game.

The Memphis Grizzlies sit at a hefty asking price of -300 on the moneyline, yet that's a bet that our algorithm is identifying as a five-star wager (meaning you can go with five units on this one).

In total, the Grizzlies are rating out at 85.8% likely to pick up the win, and that suggests a 14.4% expected return on investment.

Since 2012, home favorites between the -250 and -350 range in early-season (i.e. October games) win at a bit of a higher rate than expected at 77.1% (the -300 odds suggest a 75.0% win probability).

Also, the teams representing the Grizzlies in the 25 most comparable games to this one in our database wound up winning 76.0% of the time.

If the -300 odds are too steep for you, the algorithm also likes the 7.5-point spread to hit at a 63.4% clip, which leads to a 21.1% expected return.

Sacramento Kings at Portland Trail Blazers

Though this game between the Sacramento Kings and Portland Trail Blazers holds the highest over/under of the night at 234.0, it's the over that our algorithm finds a lean on (a one-star rating due to a 53.2% probability to hit).

Early-season totals this high are scarce, but it's worth noting that October games with a total of at least 232.0 points since 2012 have gone over at a 57.1% clip and have done so by an average of 4.3 points.

Also, these two teams went over in two of three matchups last season despite lofty totals of 236.5, 237.5, and 237.5.

The total here has shot up from 230.0 but still looks to be a valuable opportunity given the early-season trends we've seen historically.