FanDuel Daily Fantasy Basketball Helper: Monday 11/15/21

If you're new to daily fantasy basketball -- maybe you started your DFS journey during the MLB or NFL seasons, or maybe basketball is your sport and this will be your first year giving it a shot -- you're in for a treat. The NBA scene changes on a week-to-week, day-to-day, and -- depending on injury news -- even a minute-to-minute basis, making every slate a unique one that requires an ever-changing approach.

With so much changing so quickly, we're here with plenty of tools to help you out. We have daily projections, a matchup heat map, a lineup optimizer, and a bunch of other great resources to help give you an edge.

Daily fantasy basketball is very reliant on a player's opportunity, so you'll need to make sure that you're up-to-date with key injuries. Our projections update up until tip-off to reflect current news, we have player news updates, and the FanDuel Scout app will send push notifications for pressing updates regarding your players.

We'll also be coming at you with this primer every day, breaking down a few of the day's top plays at each position.

Let's break down today's main slate on FanDuel.

The Slate and Key Injuries

Plenty of injury questions headline an 11-game slate on tap for Monday night.

The highest-salaried injury of the day to monitor is Miami's Jimmy Butler. Butler turned his ankle against the Lakers last week, and he has missed the two contests since. He's officially listed questionable, but contextualizing the lowly Thunder on the other side as 9.5-point underdogs, the belief is he likely sits again personally.

Bradley Beal will miss a second straight game for Washington on the bereavement list.

Elsewhere, Fred VanVleet is questionable to play for the Raptors with a groin issue. Bizarrely, Goran Dragic went from nine straight DNP-CDs to 28 minutes in VanVleet's stead, and he's likely the plug again if FVV sits.

In that same locker room, both Precious Achiuwa (shoulder) and Chris Boucher (back) are listed questionable as backup bigs for Toronto. Khem Birch might see a boost in minutes without them.

Damian Lillard missed Sunday's blowout loss to Denver, and the Blazers guard is questionable Monday with what is listed as an abdominal injury. Lillard lobbied head coach Chauncey Billups to play Sunday, so he is trending upwards to play.

Just before that same Sunday contest, Will Barton strained his back in pregame warmups. On the second leg of a back-to-back, Barton likely sits for Denver, and the primary beneficiaries were Austin Rivers (started) and Aaron Gordon (team-high in minutes).

Rookie Chris Duarte is questionable for Indiana with an ankle injury. An absence would likely mean a start and heavy minutes for Justin Holiday.

Guards

Luka Doncic ($10,600): Doncic has been wildly inconsistent this year, but he's surging lately on the basis of his peripheral stats. In the last three games with Kristaps Porzingis back, Doncic is averaging 10.48 assists per 36 minutes and 8.73 rebounds per 36 minutes. That was where he fell off most through his cold spell, and with a 32-point outburst like he had Friday, that's where we can see his true ceiling (72.8 FanDuel points). He's the top option at guard with Ja Morant dealing with the return of Dillon Brooks and a large spread against Houston.

Spencer Dinwiddie ($6,500): With Bradley Beal out (and out well before this slate was published), Dinwiddie did not see his salary rise. Dinwiddie averages 1.29 FanDuel points per minute in floor situations without Beal this year -- second on the team to only Montrezl Harrell (now in a bench role). His 31.3% usage rate is also the highest amongst starters, and he's a definitive core play in a great matchup with the Pelicans. New Orleans has the second-worst defensive rating (113.0) in the NBA.

Lonzo Ball ($5,700): Beyond the revenge game narrative in LaVar's hometown, Ball is just a quality play as the Bulls remain without Nikola Vucevic. The true sign of a player under-salaried is when they nearly exceed requisite value on a horrible night. Despite awful 6-for-25 shooting over the weekend, Ball still turned in at least 26 FanDuel points in both contests. Ball has taken at least 11 shots in seven of the last eight games and holds a 20.4% usage rate without Vucevic (second amongst starters).

Others to Consider:
C.J. McCollum ($7,500): Played terribly on Sunday, but still a 32.5% usage rate without Lillard on the floor this season. A must in all formats if Dame sits.
Dennis Schroder ($5,700): Couldn't believe this salary; has exceeded 30 FanDuel points and 29 minutes in four of the last five games. Just too low for his current role without Jaylen Brown.
Alex Caruso ($4,400): Another Lakers revenge narrative. Started and saw 38 minutes on Sunday with no Vucevic. Played well enough it likely sticks. Well projected.
Anfernee Simons ($4,000): Saw 30 minutes without Lillard in a total blowout. Dame likely plays, but if he doesn't, it's worth pivoting some value to Simons with the news likely dropping after lock.

Wings

Jayson Tatum ($9,500): If turning to Doncic again is scary, turning once again to Tatum is downright frightening. Tatum's past week was a frigid one with 26-for-71 shooting (36.7%), and he's failed to exceed hopeful value at this salary in six of the last seven games. There really isn't an argument for Tatum besides that he is significantly under-salaried if his current shot volume regresses anywhere close to his 45.3% career-long mark. He should carry little-to-no popularity in a low-total game against Cleveland despite a tremendous 33.9% usage rate without Jaylen Brown this season.

Tyler Herro ($6,900): As mentioned in the injury section, it would be strange if Miami deploys Jimmy Butler in a winnable matchup with OKC. That should lead to another start and heavy minutes for Tyler Herro. Herro has a team-high 27.7% usage rate in floor situations without Butler this season. Herro's exceed 36 FanDuel points in back-to-back games without Butler, and he's the choice over Kyle Lowry personally because he fills a barren small forward spot with his similar role.

Kevin Huerter ($4,200): Though he'd missed two of the last three games anyway, De'Andre Hunter is officially out an extended period for the Hawks, and that should lead to a 30-plus minute, starting role for Huerter. He is always incredibly volatile with a low usage rate (17.2%) and minimal per-minute production (0.67 FanDuel points per minute), but the reward largely outweighs the risk at this salary. Cam Reddish only played 16 minutes last game without Hunter, so Huerter appears to be the preferred option with massive upside; he scored 40.1 FanDuel points against Utah last week in a game without Hunter.

Others to Consider:
RJ Barrett ($5,600): The salary is creeping low enough to take swipes at his prior upside; 30-plus FanDuel points in 6 of their 13 games this season. The current rotation is a mess, though.
Bogdan Bogdanovic ($4,800): Just doesn't seem healthy, but theoretically should see a boost in shot volume without Hunter. Prefer Huerter in most spots, but an interesting tournament pivot.
Talen Horton-Tucker ($4,400): 27 minutes in season-debut for the Lakers with a tremendous 27.9% usage rate. Could be salaried above $6,000 in a blink if his role stays.
Jeff Green ($4,200): Especially if Barton sits, he still should see 30-plus minutes. 27 on Sunday in a total blowout. His production has wildly fluctuated inside of them, but numberFire's model is optimistic for tonight.

Bigs

Nikola Jokic ($11,500): Given the other stars on the slate, my impulse is to lock Jokic in a vast majority of lineups. Jokic is still averaging a video-game-like 2.04 FanDuel points per minute without Michael Porter Jr. this season, and Will Barton will be likely missing from this contest as well. He is the one-man show. The Nuggets are the slowest team in the league in terms of pace, and that makes any squad a viable matchup for them. The lone factor to check before hammering Jokic these days is the spread, and a 4.5-point one against the Mavericks is more than suitable.

Christian Wood ($7,600): Knowing Jokic will be the plug at center, I intentionally wanted to highlight bigs with forward eligibility. Amongst a mediocre mid-tier, Wood is acceptable with the assumption Houston finds a way to cover an 11-point spread against the Grizzlies. Wood's salary has seen a large reduction after averaging just 0.89 FanDuel points per minute last week. His season-long 1.09 mark inspires confidence he can return to form beyond this salary if Houston stops getting blown out; they've lost four of their last six games by at least 12 points.

Isaiah Stewart ($5,100): Stewart had the game many were anticipating on Friday, but it was just on Saturday. He started and played 32 minutes with Kelly Olynyk out for the foreseeable future, and he poured in 20 points and 4 rebounds to smash value in the contest. While the scoring outburst was unexpected, his four boards were well below his season-long pace (10.20 rebounds per 36 minutes), so there is optimism the bottom line FanDuel point result can stick.

Others to Consider:
Julius Randle ($9,200): I will be here in tournaments for triple-double upside. I also won't blame you for avoiding it. He's missed requisite value at this salary in 8 of the last 10 games.
John Collins ($6,900): Forward eligibility gives the personal tiebreak to Collins over Clint Capela, but both should play heavy minutes against Orlando's larger rotation.
Herbert Jones ($4,400): The Pels are largely over-salaried with the return of Brandon Ingram, but Jones' salary is fair given his role. 20-plus FanDuel points every game since returning from injury.
Tony Bradley ($3,900): Alize Johnson was a DNP on Sunday, and Bradley logged 24 minutes. Like the Bulls, not a tremendous fan of either, but Bradley's role is fine for his salary.