NBA Betting Guide for Thursday 1/6/22: How to Bet All 4 Games Tonight
Betting on the NBA can get a little overwhelming throughout the season because there are games every day, and there's just a lot to track throughout the season and entering every night -- spreads, over/unders, injuries, and so on.
But you can rely on numberFire to help. We have a detailed betting algorithm that projects out games to see how often certain betting lines hit, and you can track line movement within games and compare odds over at the oddsFire section of the site.
Where do our algorithm, our power rankings, and the betting trends identify value in tonight's games? (All odds from FanDuel Sportsbook.)
Boston Celtics at New York Knicks
The Boston Celtics and New York Knicks have identical 18-20 records entering tonight's game.
numberFire's algorithm sees the Knicks getting to 19-20 61.6% of the time, a mark that makes their moneyline (+108) a three-star suggestion. Their spread (+2.0) is also a three-unit recommendation.
The Knicks will be without Kemba Walker and Derrick Rose tonight, yet with those two off the floor, their non-garbage net rating is still +2.7.
Adjusting for injury news on both sides, my model likes the Knicks as a one-point favorite, so it also agrees with numberFire's read.
Golden State Warriors at New Orleans Pelicans
The Golden State Warriors enter with a 29-8 record, and the New Orleans Pelicans are 13-25.
Golden State is actually just 6-4 over their past 10 games with a spread-adjusted point differential of -2.2, and the Pels are 5-5 in their past 10 with a spread-adjusted point differential of -1.4.
That partially explains the tight spread (Golden State is -2.5).
More of what explains it is that Stephen Curry is sounding doubtful to suit up. In games without him this season, the Dubs are 1-1 with a probably misleading medium-to-very-high-leverage net rating of -13.0 across 80 minutes. This is despite a better shot quality for (54.0%) than allowed (52.0%).
In total, numberFire's model likes Golden State to cover as a one-star play (56.1% likely) and their moneyline (-144) as a two-star play (66.2% likely).
Detroit Pistons at Memphis Grizzlies
There's minimal recommendation here, and the best play, per our algorithm, is the over (218.5).
That's getting a two-star suggestion from the algo, which views this Detroit Pistons/Memphis Grizzlies game as 60.2% likely to go over. Over their past 10 games each, the Pistons have gone over their own implied team total in 7 of them, and the Grizzlies did it in 6 of them.
The model also recommends one-unit leans on the Grizzlies' spread (-13.0) and moneyline (-950).
My model views the expected spread as 14.0 with a moneyline of -850 for the Grizz, so I'll stick to the over/under myself.
Los Angeles Clippers at Phoenix Suns
Over their past six games without Paul George, the Los Angeles Clippers are 2-4 with a point differential of -5.3 (but a spread-adjusted point differential of just -0.1). They've covered in half of those games.
So, they've been competitive against the spread, and that matters for us tonight.
They'll be getting 10.5 points against the Phoenix Suns, and our model sees them covering (at a 57.9% probability).
Now, the Suns are without Deandre Ayton themselves (which will mark the sixth straight game without him). Over the prior five, they are 3-2 with a +9.8 point differential and a +3.0 spread-adjusted point differential.
My model anticipated a spread of 9.0, so it also is siding with the Clippers +10.5 as the best angle for tonight's nightcap.
