NBA

NBA Betting Guide for Wednesday 5/4/22: Can the Road Teams Keep It Close in Game 2?

Brandon Gdula  —  @gdula13 May 4th, 2022
Game 1s in the 76ers/Heat and Mavericks/Suns series saw home teams cover. Can the road sides reverse course tonight?

Betting on the NBA can get a little overwhelming throughout the season because there are games every day, and there's just a lot to track throughout the season and entering every night -- spreads, over/unders, injuries, and so on.

But you can rely on numberFire to help. We have a detailed betting algorithm that projects out games to see how often certain betting lines hit. You can also track spread bet percentages at NBA odds.

Where do our algorithm, our power rankings, and the betting trends identify value in tonight's games? (All odds from NBA odds.)

Philadelphia 76ers at Miami Heat

Series
- Miami Heat 1, Philadelphia 76ers 0

Main Algorithm Picks
- 76ers Spread (+8.0, 3 stars)
- 76ers Moneyline (+315, 2 stars)
- Under (207.5, 1 star)

The model at numberFire is still a believer in the 76ers tonight -- to a degree.

They have a 35.6% win probability in our model, which is more than 10 percentage points higher than their implied moneyline odds (24.1% at +315), so that's a worthwhile wager.

The 76ers moneyline has an expected return of 47.9%, and even at the lower probability of hitting, the algorithm says we can go there with two units.

It also expects the Sixers to cover with a 62.8% probability, a three-star play with a 19.9% return.

Since 2016, road playoff teams who were underdogs of 7.5 to 8.5 points have covered at a 55.4% rate by an average of 1.5 points. They also won outright in 39.3% of games, similar to where numberFire's model has them (and a lot higher than the +315 odds imply).

Also, those playoff games with a comparable spread to this one have a 65.3% under rate.

In the 25 most comparable games to this one in our database, teams representing the 76ers are 16-7-2 against the spread, and the under is 14-11.

Dallas Mavericks at Phoenix Suns

Series
- Phoenix Suns 1, Dallas Mavericks 0

Main Algorithm Picks
- Suns Moneyline (-270, 1 star)

There's not a lot of betting suggestions here in this game. The model is picking out only the Suns' moneyline (-270), and even then, it's more of a lean than a love.

numberFire's algorithm likes Phoenix to win with a 73.8% probability, narrowly outdoing the 73.0% implied odds of the -270 moneyline. Yes, that's a probability margin of just 0.8 percentage points, but when factoring in the probability of the win, it's still a slight recommendation.

The 6.5-point spread and 216.0-point over/under are treated as stay-aways with negative expected value on either side of those.

As for some historical trends: home playoff teams favored by 6.0 to 7.0 points have a 59.2% cover rate (by an average of 2.4 points) and an outright win rate of 77.5%.

The under in such games is 40-31-0 (for a 56.3% hit rate), as well.