NBA

NBA Betting Guide for Wednesday 5/11/22: Can the Grizzlies Extend Their Season?

Brandon Gdula  —  @gdula13 May 11th, 2022
Memphis is a home underdog in Game 5. Can they win -- or at least cover? And is there value in the Celtics/Bucks game?

Betting on the NBA can get a little overwhelming throughout the season because there are games every day, and there's just a lot to track throughout the season and entering every night -- spreads, over/unders, injuries, and so on.

But you can rely on numberFire to help. We have a detailed betting algorithm that projects out games to see how often certain betting lines hit. You can also track spread bet percentages at NBA odds.

Where do our algorithm, our power rankings, and the betting trends identify value in tonight's games? (All odds from NBA odds.)

Milwaukee Bucks at Boston Celtics

Series
- Milwaukee Bucks 2, Boston Celtics

Main Algorithm Picks
- Over (214.5, 3 stars)
- Celtics Moneyline (-230, 1 star)

The Bucks remain without Khris Middleton, and the Celtics list Robert Williams as questionable after he was a surprise scratch for Game 4.

Milwaukee is 7-4 since the All-Star break in games without Middleton while sporting a +6.6 net rating when we remove low-leverage possessions. With Middleton off the floor since the break (not necessarily out for the whole game), their net rating dips to +4.6, yet they maintain an effective field goal percentage (eFG%) of 55.2% despite a shot quality rating (or expected eFG%) of 52.0%.

As for Boston without Williams since the break, their non-garbage net rating is +13.0 on a shot quality rating of 52.0% but an eFG% of 59.1%.

I say this not to compare Middleton's impact to Williams' but rather to give us a bit of a working baseline of team expectations.

Using these numbers, my model would anticipate a total of 225.1 points tonight.

And the over is the top play in the game by far. numberFire's algorithm expects the over to hit with a 64.1% probability. That leads to an expected return of 22.4%.

There's a one-star suggestion on the Boston moneyline. numberFire's model views Boston as 70.7% likely to take the series lead.

Golden State Warriors at Memphis Grizzlies

Series
- Golden State Warriors 3, Memphis Grizzlies 1

Main Algorithm Picks
- Grizzlies Spread (+4.0, 4 stars)
- Grizzlies Moneyline (+148, 4 stars)
- Over (218.5, 1 star)

The Grizzlies held tough in Game 4 on the road and covered the 9.5-point spread in Golden State even without Ja Morant.

Something we noted on Monday is that the Grizzlies are a good team even without Morant. Their net rating in medium-to-very-high-leverage situations since the break is now +6.7 over 655 minutes without Morant. Their record in games without him in that span is 8-4 with an even better +9.7 net rating.

I'm just saying, the Warriors' net rating in games with their Big Three is +7.7 since the break.

That's enough for them to be "only" 4.0-point underdogs at home with a +148 moneyline (implying odds of 40.3%).

numberFire's model firmly believes in the Grizzlies to cover and finds value on them to win.

Using the relevant data here, my model likes Memphis for a 46.2% win rate, besting their moneyline odds, as well. They're 54.0% likely to cover.

It goes against convention, but the Grizzlies remain a strong team without Morant -- and now they're back at home playing for their postseason. Memphis +4.0 is a pretty nice play.