NBA Betting Guide for Thursday 5/26/22: Will the Warriors Outlast Luka's Last Stand?
With a Game 4 win, the Dallas Mavericks are on the board in this series. The problem is they need three more to complete a historic comeback over the Golden State Warriors, and two of those games will be by the bay. Can they get one win closer tonight?
Betting on the NBA can be tricky, but you can rely on numberFire to help. We have a detailed betting algorithm that projects out games to see how often certain betting lines hit. You can also track spread bet percentages at NBA odds.
Where do our algorithm, our power rankings, and the betting trends identify value in tonight's games? All odds are from NBA odds, and all ratings are out of five stars.
Mavericks +7 (-110) - 2 Stars
Both yours truly and numberFire's model are aligned -- Golden State probably wins tonight.
The model gives the Dubs a 65.6% chance of winning this one outright. But, for value betting purposes, we can take a peek at this touchdown-sized spread.
Our model believes Dallas covers seven points 59.0% of the time. It helps that 66% of bets are on the Warriors -7.0 tonight, so the public isn't buying what the Mavs sold in Game 4.
Golden State covered a similar spread in both home games earlier this series but emerged a bit lucky to do so. Dallas went just 19-for-52 (36.5%) on wide-open three-point attempts in those contests. Their shooting percentage on those kinds of shots on the road for the playoffs at large is 40.4%. It was an outlier of terrible shooting, and even just matching that 40.4% rate, Dallas would have covered both games.
Even if Golden State gets out to a sizable lead, Dallas will continue to play its best players as a last-ditch effort for a miracle comeback. The backdoor could be wide open here, too.
Under 215.5 (-110) - 4 Stars
The under in Game 4 might have been one of the toughest beats of the playoffs.
The three-quarter pace for that game was 212.0 points, and turning over to each team's second unit, efficiency usually drops. I had all but run to the proverbial window to cash that guy. Golden State's second unit ripped off 39 points in the fourth quarter to bury me.
The under is still a great bet for the pace of this series. A 96.13 average pace just isn't that high, and our model agrees. It believes this game stays south of 216.0 total points a whopping 69.4% of the time. We have the under as a four-star wager.
Even more notably, 12 of the 20 most similarly profiled games to this one in numberFire's database fell short of this projected total. In eight of those instances, one team failed to break even 90 points in the modern NBA. It's a projected slog.
If given a choice between these two bets, I would rather bet Dallas' spread given how much regression they're due from the three-point line, but the under is still absolutely the side to be on for tonight's total.
Swaim-Game Parlay (+545)
Klay Thompson 2+ Threes Made
Draymond Green 6+ Assists Recorded
Andrew Wiggins 1+ Steals Recorded
Jalen Brunson Under 19.5 Points
Just one game a day means it's Same-Game Parlay season now more than ever on FanDuel Sportsbook. For some fun, I drop 0.25 units a day on one to see if it hits. Feel free to tail mine...or create your own!
We've been one leg away three straight days. Manifest positive energy!
I'm being a bit of a wimp, but in a series full of blowouts, I'm not comfortable starting anywhere besides what our model says is overwhelmingly the case: Warriors ML (-300).
It's easy to start there with plenty of great props to make up for it. Even with a wide price, our model is supremely confident Klay Thompson splashes triples tonight. They've got him projected for 3.9 threes as a median, so Klay Thompson 2+ Threes Made (-550) in a Warriors win feels like a no-brainer.
As mentioned in my single-game DFS helper, Draymond Green is due for a little bit of luck dishing dimes. He's averaged 10.3 potential assists per game but has just 4.5 real assists per game to show for it. He's still dished at least five in three straight, so hoping luck is a lady. Draymond Green 6+ Assists Recorded (-164) is another interesting addition.
Andrew Wiggins averaged 1.0 steals per game in the regular season, and he's managed 0.8 per game in the playoffs. However, he's not recorded a steal in the past two games. With a little help from regression, Andrew Wiggins 1+ Steals Recorded (-200) seems like a reasonable proposition.
Finally, the market hasn't quite adjusted to the smaller role for Jalen Brunson in this series. He's posted just a 23.7% usage rate after a 27.0% mark against Phoenix. He's shooting an impressive 42.9% from three in this series and still eclipsed 20 points in only one game. That likely doesn't continue, and numberFire's model has Brunson projected for just 16.3 points at his current usage rate, so add Jalen Brunson Under 19.5 Points (-118) with confidence as the last leg.