NBA Betting Guide for Thursday 11/3/22: Will the Warriors and Nuggets Keep Struggling on the Road?

Betting on the NBA can get a little overwhelming throughout the season because there are games every day, and there's just a lot to track throughout the season and entering every night -- spreads, over/unders, injuries, and so on.

But you can rely on numberFire to help. We have a detailed betting algorithm that projects out games to see how often certain betting lines hit. You can also track spread bet percentages at FanDuel Sportsbook.

Where do the betting trends identify value in tonight's NBA odds?

Golden State Warriors at Orlando Magic

Orlando Magic +9.0 (-108)

It's a two-game slate, and that might mean we don't have the best options available to us. numberFire's model isn't finding much here, though my model sees some value overall.

There's a lean on the Magic to cover a 9.0-point spread against the Golden State Warriors, according to my data.

Both teams have had a day of rest, and when accounting for key injuries in this game, my model thinks the spread should be +7.0 for the home side -- not +9.0.

Despite a 33.3% cover rate for the Magic, they've played 2.0 points better than the spread, on average. For the Warriors, they are 2-6 against the spread and have played 9.2 points worse than spread indications.

Golden State also holds a point differential of -14.3 on the road, the second-worst rate in the NBA. Accounting for opponents, my model actually has Golden State as the worst overall road team. That's not necessarily predictive long-term, but they haven't traveled well this season. Their offensive rating dips from 115.2 at home to 107.6 on the road.

This is also their fourth straight road game, and they play the New Orleans Pelicans tomorrow night on the road before heading home.

The Magic actually have a 116.5 offensive rating at home, and the Warriors are allowing 121.5 points per 100 possessions away from home, the second-worst mark in the NBA.

I think this is just a case where the data gap is closer than the perception gap between these two teams.

Denver Nuggets at Oklahoma City Thunder

Oklahoma City Thunder +6.5 (-112)
Over 228.5 (-110)

It's a better game than the first in terms of betting expectations.

The Denver Nuggets are such a strange case to start the season. They're 4-3 overall but 1-3 on the road, and they have a -13.0 point differential on the road, too.

Remember how the Warriors' defensive rating on the road (121.5) was 29th in the league? Well, the Nuggets' is 123.6, ranking them last.

Denver did beat Oklahoma City already this season (122-117 at home).

Accounting for injuries, my model sees this game as 65.2% likely for a Nuggets win, leaving plenty of room for the Thunder (4-3 overall and 3-1 at home) to cover.

The poor defense for the Nuggets should boost the subpar offense for the Thunder, as well, and my model likes a total of 233.1 rather than 228.5.