NBA Betting Guide for Thursday 11/17/22: Why the Blazers Should Cover at Home
Betting on the NBA can get a little overwhelming throughout the season because there are games every day, and there's just a lot to track throughout the season and entering every night -- spreads, over/unders, injuries, and so on.
But you can rely on numberFire to help. We have a detailed betting algorithm that projects out games to see how often certain betting lines hit. You can also track spread bet percentages at FanDuel Sportsbook.
Where do our algorithm, our power rankings, and the betting trends identify value in tonight's NBA odds? (All offensive rating, defensive rating, and net rating splits come from PBPStats.com and account for medium-, high-, and very high-leverage situations unless otherwise noted.)
Brooklyn Nets at Portland Trail Blazers
Over 220.0 (-110)
Portland Trail Blazers -2.5 (-110)
They are 4-3 in games without Irving with a lot of wild point differential variations in those. They have wins of 42, 4, 27, and 15 points but also losses of 2, 13, and 32. The two double-digit losses have come in the last two games.
In total, in games with Kevin Durant but without Irving on the floor, the team's offensive rating is about average (112.8), and their net rating is a -1.0.
The Portland Trail Blazers list Jusuf Nurkic as questionable. In games with Damian Lillard but with Nurkic off the floor, the Blazers have a strong +8.5 net rating with a blistering 121.3 offensive rating.
For that reason, it seems like the 2.5-point spread for the Blazers is too short. Even with assuming Nurkic is out, they're the better side, and my model anticipates a larger spread.
The mediocre defense for Brooklyn along with the good offense for Portland so long as Lillard is out there points to the over (my model thinks it should be 226.2).
San Antonio Spurs at Sacramento Kings
San Antonio Spurs +7.0 (-110)
Another questionable tag awaits for this matchup between the Spurs (6-9 overall and 3-4 on the road) against the Sacramento Kings (7-6 and 4-3 at home).
That questionable note belongs to rookie Keegan Murray. The Kings, with Murray, have an overall net differential of just 0.8 points with Murray than they do without him, and there are some small gaps in efficiency with and without him.
numberFire's model, though, thinks the Spurs cover, and Spurs +7.0 is a full-on, five-star play. The algorithm here also likes the Spurs' moneyline (+215).
Detroit Pistons at Los Angeles Clippers
Under 215.5 (-110)
Going back to Detroit here, their splits without those two players are pretty rough. They score just 101.9 points per 100 possessions, which is around 93% of the NBA average, and they allow 119.6 -- 105% of the league average. Their net rating works out to a -17.7. Woof.
The Clippers' relevant numbers (assuming George is out) aren't much better. Their offense is even worse (94.8), but their defense (106.1) is good.
These two dreadful offensive expectations lead to a point total expectation -- for me -- of just 200.0. If I assume George plays, then that shoots up to a 210.7, which still is short of the over/under.
With George, I like the Clippers to cover; without him, I'd back the Pistons. With his status up in the air, I'll just focus on the under early in the day.