3 NBA Player Prop Bets to Target on Wednesday 11/23/22
Player props can be useful in a variety of ways, from taking advantage of them straight up within the betting market to measuring a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy basketball.
Here, we'll focus on utilizing daily fantasy basketball projections and a slew of other tools to help make money betting player props. For this article, we are focusing on the NBA odds at FanDuel Sportsbook to pinpoint spots where value can be had tonight.
The prop-betting experience on FanDuel Sportsbook is getting even more fun. You can track your player props with real-time updates and place in-game props with ease.
Please note that betting lines and our daily fantasy basketball projections may change throughout the day after this article is published.
Myles Turner Over 1.5 Made Threes (+140)
For the year, Minnesota is allowing a 42.0% three-point attempt rate, the fourth-highest clip in the NBA. They're surrendering the third-most three-point tries per game to centers (3.9) and the ninth-most to power forwards (7.0).
Plus, this is going to be a fast-paced game that should have a ton of possessions. The Indiana Pacers are fifth in pace while the T-Wolves sit fourth. As such, this clash boasts a 237.0-point over/under.
We project Turner to make 1.6 threes on 4.7 tries. That's right at this 1.5 line. But given that the over is priced at +140 and the under is -180, the over is the side I want to be on.
Al Horford Under 1.5 Made Threes (+112)
On the opposite end of the Timberwolves' three-point D is the defense Dallas Mavericks' defense. The Mavs are giving up a 34.9% three-point attempt rate, the fourth-lowest.
Dallas has been tough on centers, permitting a league-low 16.4 points per game to the position and allowing the eighth-fewest three-point tries per game to five-men (2.4).
Al Horford has made multiple threes just once in his previous four games, and he's due for some negative regression from deep -- both in his three-point percentage and in how many treys he's taking. Horford is shooting 42.2% from three and is hoisting up 7.2 threes per 100 possessions. DARKO has him as an expected 38.8% three-point shooter who takes 6.9 threes per 100 possessions.
Similar to Turner, our model has Horford right at this line as we peg him to sink 1.4 threes on 4.9 attempts. The under is +112, compared to a -142 price on the over, so the under is the way to go.
O.G. Anunoby Under 29.5 Points, Rebounds and Assists (-111)
The Toronto Raptors just can't catch a break with injuries this season.
Fred VanVleet just got back, and Chris Boucher and Gary Trent Jr. are expected back tonight. But Scottie Barnes is now questionable with a knee injury, and Pascal Siakam remains out. The constant changing rotations have made it hard to get a feel for the Raps' usage and splits this campaign.
Our model sees some value in this one, though.
OG Anunoby is averaging 27.1 points, rebounds and assists (PRA) this season. On the flip side, he's poured in 27 and 32 points over his last two games en route to hitting the over at this line. But in the six prior games, he'd posted an average of 27.8 PRA.
We project him for 19.4 points, 5.7 boards and 2.5 assists tonight against the Brooklyn Nets. That's just 27.6 PRA -- well below this line.