NBA Betting Guide for Wednesday 12/7/22: 3 Totals That Are Too High
Betting on the NBA can get a little overwhelming throughout the season because there are games every day, and there's just a lot to track throughout the season and entering every night -- spreads, over/unders, injuries, and so on.
But you can rely on numberFire to help. We have a detailed betting algorithm that projects out games to see how often certain betting lines hit. You can also track spread bet percentages at FanDuel Sportsbook.
Where do our algorithm, our power rankings, and the betting trends identify value in tonight's NBA odds? (All offensive rating, defensive rating, and net rating splits come from PBPStats.com and account for medium-, high-, and very high-leverage situations unless otherwise noted.)
Los Angeles Clippers at Orlando Magic
Los Angeles Clippers -6.0 (-110)
Under 218.5 (-110)
In games with both Leonard and George, the Clippers' net rating on non-garbage-time possessions is +4.2 on the back of a 109.9 offensive rating. That offensive rating is around 97% of the NBA average, and that comes with an elite defensive rating of 105.7.
As for the Magic, they're pretty thin themselves and list Wendell Carter Jr., Gary Harris, and Jalen Suggs as out. Without them but in games with Paolo Banchero, the Magic hold a hugely negative net rating (-14.4) and score just 101.1 points per 100 possessions.
As a result, we're getting a team trending up and a team trending down, neither of which score a lot of points. My model doesn't think the Magic get to 100 tonight.
Washington Wizards at Chicago Bulls
Washington Wizards +5.5 (-110)
Under 226.5 (-110)
In games with Kristaps Porzingis but when both Beal and Hachimura are off the floor, the Wizards have 480 possessions classified as medium leverage or higher. On those possessions, they have a +3.7 net rating and score just a tick below the NBA average (112.3 points per 100 possessions).
Chicago is also a slightly below-average offense (111.7) on their relevant possessions based on tonight's available lineup, and that comes with a neutral net rating of +0.1.
Both sides have better-than-average defenses, as well, and combined, these teams hover around the NBA average in pace.
My model thinks this one scores just 217.8 points. numberFire's model likes the under as a two-star (i.e. two-unit) wager and Washington +5.5 as a one-star play.
Detroit Pistons at New Orleans Pelicans
New Orleans Pelicans -10.0 (-110)
Under 227.5 (-110)
There are a few key advantages in this game for the Pelicans.
They are at home, where they are 9-3 with a strong +7.0 opponent-adjusted point differential; the Detroit Pistons are 3-11 on the road with a -9.1 opponent-adjusted point differential.
They enter with two days of rest; the Pistons were one of six teams to play last night.
Given those adjustments and accounting for health, the Pelicans are rating out as 88.8% likely to win, according to numberFire's model, and they're getting a two-star recommendation to cover the double-digit spread.
The under is also firmly in play. Without Brandon Ingram, the Pelicans' offense struggles, and their relevant offensive rating for this matchup is just 108.6. That's tied to a pristine 102.0 defensive rating, though, so they should stifle the Pistons, whose weak defense should bump up New Orleans' scoring efficiency.