FanDuel Daily Fantasy Basketball Helper: Monday 12/12/22

Since it's much simpler to predict than baseball or football, daily fantasy basketball would get plenty of votes as the best sport to play on FanDuel. Players usually stick to the same minutes and produce at roughly the same rate. Sounds easy, right?

As a result, NBA daily fantasy is highly reliant on a player's opportunity, so you'll need to ensure that you're up-to-date with key injuries. Our projections update up until tip-off to reflect current news, we have player news updates, and the FanDuel Scout app will send push notifications for pressing updates regarding your players.

With so much changing so quickly, we're here with plenty of tools to help you. We have daily projections, a matchup heat map, a lineup optimizer, and a bunch of other great resources to help give you an edge.

We'll also be coming at you with this primer daily, breaking down a few of the day's top plays at each position.

Let's break down today's main slate on FanDuel.

The Slate and Key Injuries

Monday's slate could be down one of its key stars.

Ja Morant has popped up as questionable on today's injury report with an ankle injury. In that same game, his teammate Steven Adams (ankle) joins him. Memphis is hosting the Hawks, and Atlanta could also make a decision to rest some players after last night's overtime contest.

Elsewhere, the Cavaliers have Donovan Mitchell (leg) listed as questionable to miss a third straight game. Kevin Love (back) is also unknown. Hosting this one, the Spurs are still down Jakob Poeltl (knee) and Keita Bates-Diop (foot), but Jeremy Sochan (quad) is questionable and potentially set to return.

Nicolas Claxton (hamstring) is at risk for a third missed game for Brooklyn, and Royce O'Neale (personal) is out. The visiting Wizards have Monte Morris (groin) listed as questionable, and Bradley Beal (hamstring) is still likely out.

The Mavericks are listing Luka Doncic (quad) as probable, and Maxi Kleber (foot) appears to be more of a question mark.

Amidst the Heat's bevy of probables, they've got Gabe Vincent (knee) listed out. Dewayne Dedmon (foot) is questionable. They're traveling to Indiana, who are listed at full strength.

Finally, the Celtics and Clippers are the nightcap, and they'll have their usual absences. Boston is without Al Horford (personal), and L.A. is still without Norman Powell (groin).

**Editor's Note: Trae Young, Clint Capela, and Bogdan Bogdanovic were added to Atlanta's updated injury report Monday afternoon. Check numberFire's projections for updated best plays and recommendations.**

Guards

If the betting information comes to fruition, Luka Doncic ($12,000) should be an elite play on this slate.

The Mavs are currently just 9.5-point favorites, which would give Luka -- and his 37.0% usage rate (third-best in the NBA) -- plenty of room to roam in an elite matchup. Oklahoma City's young defense is allowing the second-most FanDuel points per game to combo guards.

Behind him, Darius Garland ($8,400) might be a hidden gem. He's held a team-best 31.2% usage rate without Donovan Mitchell on the floor this season, but he's waffled in two straight games without him due to 38.5% shooting from the field. If that returns to his season-long 43.1% mark, he'll be a bargain.

I prefer Garland to Trae Young ($10,000) if Mitchell sits, but Young, given his continued 41.2% usage rate with Dejounte Murray off the floor, is viable, too. I just have concerns for him because of his teammate Bogdan Bogdanovic ($5,600), who I'll get to with the wings. He's fired basketballs at the hoop en masse since returning.

Young's other teammate, Trent Forrest ($3,800), heads our value tier, and it's easy to see why as he usurped Aaron Holiday with 34 minutes last night. At a near-minimum salary, the production should come most nights. Forrest heads D'Angelo Russell ($7,200), Marcus Smart ($6,400), and Victor Oladipo ($4,000) in our projections, but there's not a ton of other value.

Monte Morris ($5,500) is also here if he can suit up, and Tyus Jones ($5,600) will rise to the top if Morant sits.

Wings

In his hometown, Kevin Durant ($10,300) is projecting well above his contemporaries at the top of small forward today.

Eclipsing 48 FanDuel points in six of his last eight games, he's tough to argue against. Doncic might have a higher ceiling, but chances are K.D. gets his -- especially against his childhood squad. Durant dropped 39 on Washington earlier this year.

Both Clippers wings are interesting at salary, too. Paul George ($9,100) just dropped 66.4 FanDuel points in 40 minutes on Saturday, and personally, the minute load is the story there. If he's back to full work, he's undersalaried. The same could be said for Kawhi Leonard ($6,300), who logged 30 in that contest. Leonard was a five-digit salary player when last at full strength, so his salary carries massive upside.

AJ Griffin ($4,500) hasn't produced well in De'Andre Hunter's absence, but he got 40 minutes yesterday. That's hard to knock at his salary.

Griffin only trails a pair of Wizards in our projections today. Opposite Durant, both Deni Avdija ($5,500) and Corey Kispert ($3,900) are gleaming, and both should project even better if Monte Morris can't play. Other value wings to consider include Dillon Brooks ($6,200), Buddy Hield ($6,100), Caleb Martin ($5,000), and Jaden McDaniels ($4,600).

Bigs

It's starting to appear the Wizards fleeced the Mavericks in last year's big trade.

Kristaps Porzingis ($9,200), with a clean bill of health, has been dominant. Operating without Bradley Beal in the past four games, he's posted 53.0 FanDuel points per 36 minutes on a healthy 31.2% usage rate. Especially considering the salary bump to Kyle Kuzma ($8,500), he's a phenomenal way to stack Durant.

If Ja Morant sits, Jaren Jackson Jr. ($7,700) might be a sneaky way to target Memphis. He's averaged an absurd 61.0 FanDuel points per 36 minutes during court situations without Ja this season, and that's come on a team-best 35.6% usage rate. Without exaggeration, he basically mirrors Giannis Antetokounmpo in that floor condition.

Rudy Gobert ($7,600) has also found his way in Minnesota without Karl-Anthony Towns next to him. In the past three games, Gobert is averaging 21.4 points, 14.9 rebounds, and 3.4 blocks plus steals per 36 minutes. He's essentially become a better version of his Utah profile, which is worth well beyond this salary.

This isn't a position group short on depth today. Indiana cedes the most FanDuel points per game to centers, so don't cross off Bam Adebayo ($8,800) even with Miami at full strength. Jarrett Allen ($6,900) also sits below his median salary from last year, and he sees a team-best 6.9 percentage-point increase in usage rate with Mitchell off the floor this year.

Value is a bit harder to come by than some of these upper-mid-range studs, but our projections still shine favorably on Clint Capela ($6,200), Zach Collins ($5,200), and Grant Williams ($4,800). After playing 30 minutes last game, I'm in on Collins -- at last -- despite the fact his production hasn't come yet.