NBA Betting Guide for Tuesday 12/13/22: Adjusting Offensive Expectations for Injuries

Betting on the NBA can get a little overwhelming throughout the season because there are games every day, and there's just a lot to track throughout the season and entering every night -- spreads, over/unders, injuries, and so on.

But you can rely on numberFire to help. We have a detailed betting algorithm that projects out games to see how often certain betting lines hit. You can also track spread bet percentages at FanDuel Sportsbook.

Where do our algorithm, our power rankings, and the betting trends identify value in tonight's NBA odds? (All offensive rating, defensive rating, and net rating splits come from PBPStats.com and account for medium-, high-, and very high-leverage situations unless otherwise noted.)

Sacramento Kings at Philadelphia 76ers

Under 229.0 (-110)
Philadelphia 76ers Moneyline (-200)

With De'Aaron Fox questionable, we have to keep an eye on the news, but Fox did practice on Monday, so it's fairly possible he's back for this game against the 76ers.

Also, the Sacramento Kings' net rating shifts by just 0.1 with and without Fox, so the on-court impact hasn't been too drastic -- and they've actually been a tick better without him, to clarify.

The 76ers are without Tyrese Maxey, and in games without him but with James Harden and Joel Embiid, Philadelphia is 2-1 but with a net rating of +7.1 and an offensive rating of 120.0.

Combined, each side has a slightly better-than-average defense, and it's hard to maintain a 120.0 offensive rating over the long term.

My model, then, is projecting a 224.9-point total. numberFire's model also likes the under as a four-unit recommendation.

Phoenix Suns at Houston Rockets

Under 222.5 (-110)
Houston Rockets +6.0 (-110)

While the Rockets are pretty healthy for this matchup, the Phoenix Suns are without Devin Booker. The Suns' net rating differential with Booker is +4.6 better than without him.

That's a sizable shift. Those numbers for Chris Paul (+0.1) and Deandre Ayton (-8.8) are substantially worse.

So, in games with Paul and Ayton but with Booker on the bench, the Suns have a -6.8 net rating and an abysmal 103.4 offensive rating.

The Rockets, with their key players in this game active, have a -7.2 net rating but get there in a different way (with a 111.4 offensive rating and a 118.5 defensive rating).

Neither team is great, but the Suns without Booker are probably a lot worse than we realize, thus putting value on the home side here to cover.

The bad offenses combine for an expected point total of just 218.1 in my model.

New Orleans Pelicans at Utah Jazz

Under 234.5 (-110)
Utah Jazz Moneyline (+108)
Utah Jazz +1.5 (-110)

Yes, here is a third under, but that's where the value is based on injury adjustments.

Similar to the situation with the Suns without Booker, the New Orleans Pelicans' offense is drastically different without Brandon Ingram. With Ingram, the team has a 121.8 offensive rating. Without him, it's 110.4, a dip of 11.4 points.

As for the Jazz, they're without Collin Sexton but are otherwise good to go. The surprisingly good Jazz (15-14 on the year) are 9-5 at home.

Their relevant net rating for this game is +8.3; meanwhile, the Pelicans' is +0.4.

Accounting for home-court advantage and current rosters, I have the Jazz favored by 5.0 points. My model also sees this game scoring under 220.0 points if we account for the offensive downshift for New Orleans.

numberFire's model lists the under, the Jazz spread, and the Jazz moneyline as four-star plays each.