NBA Betting Guide for Friday 12/16/22: What to Expect From the Damian Lillard and Luka Doncic Showdown

Betting on the NBA can get a little overwhelming throughout the season because there are games every day, and there's just a lot to track throughout the season and entering every night -- spreads, over/unders, injuries, and so on.

But you can rely on numberFire to help. We have a detailed betting algorithm that projects out games to see how often certain betting lines hit. You can also track spread bet percentages at FanDuel Sportsbook.

Where do our algorithm, our power rankings, and the betting trends identify value in tonight's NBA odds? (All offensive rating, defensive rating, and net rating splits come from PBPStats.com and account for medium-, high-, and very high-leverage situations unless otherwise noted.)

Indiana Pacers at Cleveland Cavaliers

Under 222.5 (-110)
Cleveland Cavaliers Moneyline (-335)
Cleveland Cavaliers -8.0 (-110)

I'm not seeing a lot that I love on Friday's slate despite its size, and rather than meet a volume quota, I'd rather keep the quality and focus on what looks best.

There aren't too many injuries to account for in this matchup between the Cavaliers and the Indiana Pacers, which is always welcomed this far into the season --or at any point in the season.

The Cavaliers are a stellar 12-2 at home and 18-11 overall. Their point differential at home is +10.4. Adjusting for opponents, that number is still +9.6. They've got an 83.3% cover rate at home, but their home games have a 35.7% over rate thus far.

While the Pacers are a respectable 6-8 on the road, that's tied to a point differential of -4.8. Adjusting for opponents, that falls to -7.4. They've been the sixth-luckiest road team in the NBA and probably should have just 4.8 road wins -- based on their point differential.

Given all of this, it's hard to ignore the Cavaliers' moneyline. I think their spread is playable -- but a bit efficient.

The under is also very much in play and perhaps preferable to the other options here. Accounting for active rosters in this matchup, my model is projecting a total of only 219.3 points.

Portland Trail Blazers at Dallas Mavericks

Over 225.5 (-110)
Portland Trail Blazers +4.0 (-110)

A game between Damian Lillard and Luka Doncic has to have offensive fireworks, right?

My model thinks so.

In games with Lillard active, the Portland Trail Blazers have a pristine 119.1 offensive rating and allow 114.0 points per 100 possessions, around the NBA average. The offensive rating, though, is a five-percent boost from the league average.

The Dallas Mavericks' relevant offensive rating for this game is even better than Portland's: 120.6. That comes with a bad defensive rating (117.5).

So why not love the over? The only thing left is pace.

Though that is a concern, we can project each team to have an expected offensive rating north of 120.0 in this game, and that -- even over a slower game -- is working out to a total of 232.5. That gives us a lot of room on the current total.

Going back to the Blazers with Lillard, they're 11-5 in games with him active with a point differential of +5.3. They're rating out as 2.0-point underdogs in my model, but we can get 4.0 points in the actual betting market.