NBA Betting Guide for Thursday 12/22/22: How to Bet Spurs/Pelicans and Wizards/Jazz
Betting on the NBA can get a little overwhelming throughout the season because there are games every day, and there's just a lot to track throughout the season and entering every night -- spreads, over/unders, injuries, and so on.
But you can rely on numberFire to help. We have a detailed betting algorithm that projects out games to see how often certain betting lines hit. You can also track spread bet percentages at FanDuel Sportsbook.
Where do our algorithm, our power rankings, and the betting trends identify value in tonight's NBA odds? (All offensive rating, defensive rating, and net rating splits come from PBPStats.com and account for medium-, high-, and very high-leverage situations unless otherwise noted.)
San Antonio Spurs at New Orleans Pelicans
Under 228.0 (-110)
The 18-12 New Orleans Pelicans are going to be without Zion Williamson and Brandon Ingram for this matchup against the 10-20 San Antonio Spurs.
In two matchups so far this season, the Pelicans beat the Spurs in each, and both of those games were in San Antonio.
The first was a 129-110 win in late November, and both Williamson and Ingram played. On December 2nd, without Ingram, the Pelicans had another big win: 117-99.
How well will that translate to tonight? Probably not quite as easily. In games without those studs but with C.J. McCollum, the Pelicans are 1-1 despite a net rating of -7.3.
The Spurs are 5-8 on the road in spite of a -9.1 opponent-adjusted point differential, the third-worst in the NBA. The problem is that they're still okay against the spread (46.2% cover rate) and fall short of the spread by just 0.7 points, on average. That makes a spread bet in New Orleans' favor tough to back.
My preferred angle here is the under, which stems from the expected offensive shortcomings of the Pelicans without Zion and Ingram.
numberFire's model also thinks the Pelicans snap a four-game losing streak and loves their moneyline (-360) as a four-star (i.e. four-unit) opportunity.
Washington Wizards at Utah Jazz
Utah Jazz Moneyline (-255)
Utah Jazz -6.5 (-110)
There are some relevant questionable tags for this game, and that means we need some caveats.
The visiting Washington Wizards list Kristaps Porzingis as questionable, and the Jazz have Collin Sexton questionable, as well. Kelly Olynyk is out for Utah, too.
In situations like this, I like to figure out where we can find action in the worst-case scenario. Can the Jazz cover without Sexton and Olynyk even if Porzingis plays?
Yeah, it seems like it.
The relevant net ratings in that split would be -4.5 for Washington and +5.4 for Utah. numberFire's model likes the Jazz to cover with a 62.0% probability.
The algorithm also thinks Utah wins outright with an 82.7% probability, making their moneyline (-255) a strong play, as well. The expected return is 15.2%.
Notably, Washington is 4-13 on the road, and Utah is 11-5 at home.
