NBA

FanDuel Daily Fantasy Basketball Helper: Tuesday 12/27/22

Since it's much simpler to predict than baseball or football, daily fantasy basketball would get plenty of votes as the best sport to play on FanDuel. Players usually stick to the same minutes and produce at roughly the same rate. Sounds easy, right?

As a result, NBA daily fantasy is highly reliant on a player's opportunity, so you'll need to ensure that you're up-to-date with key injuries. Our projections update up until tip-off to reflect current news, we have player news updates, and the FanDuel Scout app will send push notifications for pressing updates regarding your players.

With so much changing so quickly, we're here with plenty of tools to help you. We have daily projections, a matchup heat map, a lineup optimizer, and a bunch of other great resources to help give you an edge.

We'll also be coming at you with this primer daily, breaking down a few of the day's top plays at each position.

Let's break down today's main slate on FanDuel.

The Slate and Key Injuries

Away Home Game
Total
Away
Implied
Total
Home
Implied
Total
Away
Pace
Home
Pace
Philadelphia Washington 225.5 115.3 110.3 24 16
LA Lakers Orlando 235 116.0 119.0 2 13
LA Clippers Toronto 220 107.8 112.3 26 23
Atlanta Indiana 238.5 120.0 118.5 6 7
Houston Boston 231 108.3 122.8 22 12
San Antonio Oklahoma City 236.5 114.8 121.8 9 3
Phoenix Memphis 226.5 109.3 117.3 19 5
New York Dallas 218.5 106.8 111.8 13 28
Charlotte Golden State 239.5 117.5 122.0 11 1
Denver Sacramento 240.5 121.8 118.8 18 3


The NBA's Christmas schedule has balanced the game volumes by day this week, so we've got a loaded 11-game slate on Tuesday.

All things considered, it's decently quiet on the injury front. Domantas Sabonis is -- by far -- the biggest new name on the injury report. He's questionable for Sacramento due to a thumb fracture, but he'll try to play through it.

Unfortunately, Devin Booker (groin) ruined Christmas for many DFS players. He reaggravated his injury four minutes into Phoenix's game with Denver and is out Tuesday. The Suns are short on guards with Landry Shamet (Achilles) and Cameron Payne (foot) out, too.

Kawhi Leonard (knee) sat for the Clippers yesterday, but it was maintenance-related, so expect him back tonight in his old stomping grounds as LA visits the Raptors. We're still waiting on Los Angeles' official injury report, but something tells me Paul George might be on it. John Wall (rest) almost certainly will be.

Listed as questionable, New York's Jalen Brunson (hip) might not be able to make his grand return to Dallas. The Mavs are still down Dorian Finney-Smith (hip), and Kemba Walker (knee) is questionable.

Andrew Wiggins (groin) is out again for Golden State, who also has Draymond Green (foot) listed as questionable. They're hosting Charlotte, and the Hornets could be down Dennis Smith (ankle) and Nick Richards (ankle) as they were yesterday.

The Hawks will be sans Clint Capela (calf) again tonight, and they've got De'Andre Hunter (knee) listed as questionable. They're also going to be without Jarrett Culver (illness) as they travel to Indiana.

Finally, Deni Avdija (back) is questionable again tonight for Washington.

Guards

Just looking at game totals, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander ($10,600) stands out by default.

There's a 236.5-point total in Oklahoma City, and the Spurs have ceded the seventh-most FanDuel points per game to opposing point guards. Honestly, factoring in salaries, Josh Giddey ($7,200) may be more appealing. On a per-dollar basis, our projections agree.

Giddey fits my primary strategy to pepper the upper-mid-range here, too. That starts with De'Aaron Fox ($8,600), who could be in for a lift if Sabonis sits. He sees a team-best increase of 6.12 FanDuel points per 36 minutes with Domas off the floor.

On the other side of him, Jamal Murray ($7,400) makes plenty of sense with a 240.5-point total in Sactown.

LaMelo Ball ($8,900), Dejounte Murray ($8,600), Jordan Poole ($8,300), and Chris Paul ($8,200) also shine through our projections in this salary range.

In terms of value, Damion Lee ($4,400) is an obvious one. His path to failure -- Landry Shamet off the bench -- won't even play. Jalen Green ($6,900), Spencer Dinwiddie ($6,400), Tre Jones ($6,300), De'Anthony Melton ($6,200), and Reggie Jackson ($5,000) are other point-per-dollar values our model likes early in the day. Outside of Lee, there's a strong core of mid-range guys.

Wings

Houston is generally terrible at defense (115.1 rating), so both Jayson Tatum ($10,800) and Jaylen Brown ($8,700) are on the table -- albeit with a dicey 14.5-point spread to navigate there.

With a maximum of 58.7 FanDuel points in this time without Anthony Davis, LeBron James ($11,500) doesn't offer too much upside at his salary. Orlando's defense (113.7 rating) isn't as bad as in previous seasons, either.

If George is rested on the back-to-back, Kawhi Leonard ($8,100) is a steal against his old team. He's posted a team-best rate of 1.18 FanDuel points per minute with PG13 off the floor, but if both suit up, I'll probably fade the situation entirely.

San Antonio -- tanking for Victor Wembanyama -- has been resting Keldon Johnson ($7,100) on some back-to-backs. Having played last night, he's a question mark, but I love his floor (five straight over 28 FanDuel points) if he can go.

Speaking of floor, Tim Hardaway Jr. ($5,700) has generated at least 24 FanDuel points in five straight for Dallas since entering the starting lineup. He's projecting favorably in a pretty loaded group of value wings that includes Tobias Harris ($6,800), Buddy Hield ($6,000), Harrison Barnes ($5,600), Marcus Morris ($5,100), and Quentin Grimes ($5,000).

I'd add a few more darts to that list with guys coming off injuries who are under-salaried, including Desmond Bane ($7,100), Gordon Hayward ($6,500), and Michael Porter Jr. ($5,800). They've yet to pop since returning to full minutes.

Bigs

Nikola Jokic ($12,400) is never as popular as he should be, but maybe that changes in the game with the highest total of the night.

Neither his usage rate (28.3%) nor his per-minute production (1.66 FanDuel points) is stellar for his salary with Denver healthy, but his elite efficiency can produce break the slate as we saw on Christmas (81.5 FanDuel points). Plus, Sacramento could be down their starting center.

To me, the top big man at salary is Kristaps Porzingis ($8,900). Like Denver, Washington's at full strength, but Porzingis is under-salaried given a rate of 46.0 FanDuel points per 36 minutes this year.

Especially if Jokic -- or a value center like Alex Len ($3,500) in Sabonis' stead -- leaps out in projected popularity, Deandre Ayton ($8,200) is another great pivot. Ayton becomes the Suns' offensive leader (45.8 FanDuel points per 36) with Booker off the floor, and he correlates well with CP3 as the two work the pick-and-roll.

Speaking of Len, that's an overall ugly situation. Chimezie Metu ($3,800), Richaun Holmes ($3,800), and Neemias Queta ($3,500) are also in the fold for the Kings in a random frontcourt cesspool as it was before last year's Sabonis trade. If forced to choose one, Holmes is my pick, because he isn't a center-only play.

Myles Turner ($7,000) is a tried-and-true point-per-dollar. There's no injury situation for Indiana; he's just well outpacing his salary in production (42.1 FanDuel points per 36) in a great matchup with Atlanta. In addition to him, John Collins ($6,300), Thomas Bryant ($5,900), and Robert Williams ($5,000) are also projecting well. Add Kevon Looney ($5,500) to that list if Draymond sits.