NBA Betting Guide for Wednesday 1/11/23: How to Handle Some Large Spreads
Betting on the NBA can get a little overwhelming throughout the season because there are games every day, and there's just a lot to track throughout the season and entering every night -- spreads, over/unders, injuries, and so on.
But you can rely on numberFire to help. We have a detailed betting algorithm that projects out games to see how often certain betting lines hit. You can also track spread bet percentages at FanDuel Sportsbook.
Where do our algorithm, our power rankings, and the betting trends identify value in tonight's NBA odds?
(All offensive rating, defensive rating, and net rating splits come from PBPStats.com and account for medium-, high-, and very high-leverage situations unless otherwise noted. All injury news and notes come from the official NBA injury report unless otherwise noted.)
Indiana Pacers at New York Knicks
New York Knicks Moneyline (-196)
The main injury note in this game is on the Knicks' side with RJ Barrett listed as questionable. However, the on/off splits for him are pretty tame for our purposes.
That leads us to be able to back the Knicks in Madison Square Garden. New York is just 10-11 at home but holds a +3.1 point differential and a +2.0 opponent-adjusted net rating at home.
The Indiana Pacers' adjusted net rating in road games is -4.2; at home, it's +6.4, so they're a very different squad when traveling.
My model thinks the Knicks should be favored by 6.2. Therefore, I don't love the spread (Knicks -5.0) as much as I do the moneyline -- and the same goes for numberFire's model.
New Orleans Pelicans at Boston Celtics
New Orleans Pelicans +9.5 (-110)
Under 231.0 (-110)
At face value, the Boston Celtics at home (where they're 16-5) against the Pelicans (8-11 on the road), who are without Zion Williamson and Brandon Ingram, should be an easy cover spot, but it's not always that simple.
Boston is listing both Marcus Smart and Robert Williams as questionable. That might make us think their defense plays poorly and that we should just back the over.
Well, the Celtics' defensive rating in games with Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown but with Smart and Williams off the floor is still 109.7.
And the Pelicans' offense without Zion and Ingram? Has to be terrible, right? Well, their offensive rating is about average at 113.2. That's good enough to stay relevant but not necessarily smash the over.
My model, then, is viewing the expected spread as 7.3, thus putting some value on the underdogs to cover.
My model also thinks the total should be 225.5.
numberFire's model likes the Pelicans +9.5 as a two-star play and the under as a one-star play.
Houston Rockets at Sacramento Kings
Sacramento Kings -9.5 (-110)
Over 237.5 (-110)
In this one, it's the home favorites we should want to back.
The Kings (12-9 at home) host the Houston Rockets (4-16 on the road).
Sacramento's relevant net rating for this matchup is +1.8; Houston's is -8.3.
Both sides have a defensive rating of 117.2 or higher, so this is an over-friendly setup -- especially with Sacramento's good offense (119.0 in the split I'm using).
numberFire's algorithm thinks the Kings win by an average of 11.8 points, making them 57.5% likely to cover -- good for an expected return of 9.9%.
Both my model and numberFire's like the over, as well.
