NBA Betting Guide for Monday 2/6/23: Can the Kings Get Back on Track During a Long Road Trip?
Betting on the NBA can get a little overwhelming throughout the season because there are games every day, and there's just a lot to track throughout the season and entering every night -- spreads, over/unders, injuries, and so on.
But you can rely on numberFire to help. We have a detailed betting algorithm that projects out games to see how often certain betting lines hit. You can also track spread bet percentages at FanDuel Sportsbook.
Where do our algorithm, our power rankings, and the betting trends identify value in tonight's NBA odds?
(All offensive rating, defensive rating, and net rating splits come from PBPStats.com and account for medium-, high-, and very high-leverage situations unless otherwise noted. All injury news and notes come from the official NBA injury report unless otherwise noted.
Boston Celtics at Detroit Pistons
Under 230.5 (-110)
As always, we need to adjust for injuries in every single game. Tonight's matchup between the Boston Celtics and Detroit Pistons is no exception.
For Boston, Marcus Smart is out, and for Detroit, they're without Marvin Bagley III. They also list Isaiah Stewart as questionable.
The Celtics, in games with Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown but without Smart, have a non-garbage-time offensive rating of 115.2 with a still-great defensive rating of 108.6.
Detroit's offensive rating without Bagley, Stewart, and Cade Cunningham is only 112.0. They do allow 119.2 points per 100 possessions defensively, yet that's still not quite enough for a true over once we account for pace and the Celtics' defensive impact on a weak Detroit offense.
My model projects a total down near 226.0; numberFire's model likes the under as a one-star play, as well.
Sacramento Kings at Houston Rockets
Sacramento Kings Moneyline (-235)
Sacramento Kings -5.5 (-110)
It's pretty telling that the Kings are still 5.5-point favorites over any team while De'Aaron Fox's status is somewhat uncertain. He has missed two straight games due to personal reasons, and the Kings lost both of them. This is their sixth straight road game (they're 2-3 on the road trip), and they'll play in Houston again on Wednesday.
Even while simulating this game with Fox being inactive, my model likes the Kings to win and cover.
The Houston Rockets are listing Kevin Porter Jr. out, and my model shows a relevant offensive rating of 108.7 and a relevant defensive rating of 120.1 for a dreadful -11.4 net rating.
The Kings -- without Fox -- are at a +3.0.
numberFire's algorithm has the Kings' moneyline as a three-star play and their spread as a two-star suggestion.
Oklahoma City Thunder at Golden State Warriors
Oklahoma City Thunder +3.5 (-106)
This one is a bit strange.
The Golden State Warriors are a dominant home team with a 20-6 record and a 61.5% cover rate. But Stephen Curry is out (for a few weeks, mind you).
Across 643 possessions in games with Klay Thompson, Andrew Wiggins, and Draymond Green active but with Curry off the floor, Golden State has a net rating of -4.5.
The Thunder are a very respectable road team. Despite a 9-16 record, their point differential on the road is only -2.3. Adjusting for opponents, they're a -0.9, and that's helped lead to a spread-adjusted road differential of +2.6 (with a 64.0% road cover rate). Their relevant net rating for this game is +1.1.
This line is shifting around between 4.5 and 3.5. Naturally, we'd want the extra point. Even at +3.5, there's appeal for the Thunder, however, and that's a two-star suggestion from numberFire's model.
