FanDuel Daily Fantasy Basketball Helper: Tuesday 5/9/23
Since it's much simpler to predict than baseball or football, daily fantasy basketball would get plenty of votes as the best sport to play on FanDuel. Players usually stick to the same minutes and produce at roughly the same rate. Sounds easy, right?
As a result, NBA daily fantasy is highly reliant on a player's opportunity, so you'll need to ensure that you're up-to-date with key injuries. Our projections update up until tip-off to reflect current news, we have player news updates, and the FanDuel Scout app will send push notifications for pressing updates regarding your players.
With so much changing so quickly, we're here with plenty of tools to help you. We have daily projections, a matchup heat map, a lineup optimizer, and a bunch of other great resources to help give you an edge.
We'll also come at you with this primer daily, breaking down a few of the day's top plays at each position.
Let's break down today's main slate on FanDuel.
The Slate and Key Injuries
Honestly, I'll probably look to fade Devin Booker ($10,500) until he's cooled completely off.
The math just isn't on his side with a 67.9 eFG% in the playoffs with a shot diet where 56.5% of his looks are pull-up jump shots. His run truly defies modern NBA logic.
James Harden ($9,600) exploded in Game 4 with a near-triple-double, but it'll be a question of which "Beard" we get in Boston. He's exceeded 58 FanDuel points in two games of the series and fallen below 38 in the other two.
I prefer Jamal Murray ($9,200) to rebound at home at his similar salary. Murray has had a 57.1 eFG% at home in the playoffs to 47.8% on the road. It wouldn't be a shock to see him return to at least 24 points, which he's totaled in four of five games at Ball Arena.
Tyrese Maxey ($6,500) is one of the best plays on the slate at his salary when consistently logging over 40 minutes. Marcus Smart ($6,300), Malcolm Brogdon ($5,700), and Derrick White ($5,000) also eclipsed 30 each for the C's, so the rotation is now thin enough that you'll probably need all of them in tournaments.
I'll also be looking to buy back into De'Anthony Melton ($4,300), who led all Sixers outside of Embiid in FanDuel points in Game 3. He still saw 24 minutes in Game 4 despite the dud.
Officials haven't called many fouls on the home team in Denver all postseason, which could pull Kevin Durant ($11,200) back tonight.
Durant used 29 free throw attempts to boost his totals in Phoenix, but the Nuggets are only allowing 17.2 per game total at home in the playoffs against Minnesota and Phoenix, two teams who draw them. The raucous home crowd appears to have an impact there.
I can't wait to fade Jayson Tatum to roster Jaylen Brown ($8,300) today. Tatum needed career-playoff-high marks in rebounds (18) and blocks (4) to post 67.6 FanDuel points on Sunday. Brown hasn't eclipsed 30 points scored in this series despite a 24.1% usage rate that isn't too far behind Tatum's (27.8%).
Though one-dimensional, Michael Porter Jr. ($6,700) has stayed on the floor. He even logged 40 minutes in Game 4. Only 44.0% of his FanDuel production has come from scoring in this series, so if he's logging minutes, he's likely producing. Thankfully, Tobias Harris ($6,000) has also tumbled in salary to a mark that's a no-brainer. He played 40 regulation minutes in Game 4.
Your star center of choice tonight might depend on forecasting which game stays closer.
Nikola Jokic ($12,400) is undeniable, eclipsing 70 FanDuel points in three straight. However, beyond the poor punt-level value options on the slate, there is no margin for error in a potential blowout at that salary.
On the flip side, Joel Embiid ($10,900) faces a larger spread (7.5), but his salary is far more forgiving with an equal per-dollar justification. He's eclipsed 56 FanDuel points in consecutive games as he ramps back from the knee issue. I prefer Embiid just because of the gap in the quality of parts you can put around him.
Of course, Phoenix has a pair of options, too. Deandre Ayton ($6,000) has fought foul trouble against Jokic in all three games, which has opened the door for Jock Landale ($4,200) in spurts. That said, at 0.96 FanDuel points per minute in the past two, Landale's ceiling doesn't get much better. He was just at 1.00 in the regular season with better usage.
Ayton's tumbling salary could be a value if he can avoid the ticky-tack calls.
Power forward is incredibly simple behind them. Al Horford ($7,200), Aaron Gordon ($6,400), and P.J. Tucker ($3,800) were the only options to eclipse 12 minutes in their respective Game 4s, and each sailed past 31 minutes on the court. The inactive Tucker is more viable today than ever if Jokic, Booker, and Durant are key priorities.