NBA Betting Guide for Tuesday 5/16/23: Will Offense or Defense Prevail in Denver?
Betting on the NBA can get a little overwhelming throughout the season because there are games every day, and there's just a lot to track throughout the season and entering every night -- spreads, over/unders, injuries, and so on.
But you can rely on numberFire to help. We have a detailed betting algorithm that projects out games to see how often certain betting lines hit. You can also track spread bet percentages at FanDuel Sportsbook.
Where can we identify value in tonight's NBA odds?
(All offensive rating, defensive rating, and net rating splits come from PBPStats.com and account for medium-, high-, and very high-leverage situations unless otherwise noted. All injury news and notes come from the official NBA injury report unless otherwise noted.)
Los Angeles Lakers at Denver Nuggets
Los Angeles Lakers +6.0 (-108)
This is a fitting Western Conference Finals.
Through the trade deadline, Denver's +5.3 net rating led the conference. After it, the Lakers (+4.3) trailed only the Grizzlies and Warriors, who they vanquished in six games apiece. I just don't think oddsmakers or the public are trusting an L.A. squad that seems cobbled together, but they should.
That's because this defense is the difference. L.A. had the 11th-worst defensive rating (114.1) leading up to the deadline, and it was 110.9 from then until the end of the regular season. Against those two elite aforementioned offenses, their defensive rating is just 106.5.
To me, the gap between that and Denver's defense in this series will be the difference. The Nuggets excel at chasing teams off the three-point line; the 29.7 attempts per game they've ceded in the playoffs are fewer than anyone except the Clippers. The Lakers, as the sixth-worst team shooting threes in the regular season, probably doesn't mind driving to the basket instead.
That's where the Nuggets' D is at its worse. They ceded a 70.0% field-goal rate there against Phoenix.
Personally, Anthony Davis and the Lakers' interior defense should feel more like Denver's series with Minnesota, which was pretty close. Each of the last four games was decided by fewer than nine points.
Backing the Lakers with six seems like an obvious move with their offense (116.6 rating) a good bit ahead of the Timberwolves' (109.6).
Under 222.5 (-110)
We should see lower scores than this mark, which is eerily similar to many of the totals we saw in these teams' respective last series.
The pace they play should combine to be very slow. L.A. is sixth in pace (99.8) in the playoffs, and Denver is sixth from the bottom (96.3). They've just relied on tremendous shooting that -- especially on the Denver side -- I'm not expecting to stick.
When outside of five feet from the basket, opponents aren't shooting better than 38.7% from the floor against L.A in any one area. Their 55.3 eFG%, in all likelihood, will drop in this series.
These sides correlate today. If you're expecting the Lakers to keep it close, it's probably not outgunning the league's top offense on the road. If Denver finds success against this vaunted Lakers D after all to cover, they've likely posted a bushel of points along the way.
