NBA Player Prop Bets to Target: Heat at Celtics (Game 5)
Here, we'll focus on utilizing daily fantasy basketball projections and a slew of other tools to help make money betting player props. For this article, we are focusing on the NBA odds at FanDuel Sportsbook to pinpoint spots where value can be had tonight.
The prop-betting experience on FanDuel Sportsbook is getting even more fun. You can track your player props with real-time updates and place live in-game props with ease.
Please note that betting lines and our daily projections may change throughout the day after this article is published.
Jimmy Butler Under 0.5 Made Threes (+134)
Jimmy Butler has never been a high-volume three-point shooter or a particularly good three-point shooter.
He attempted 1.6 threes per game this past regular season, hitting 0.6 per night. Butler made just 23.3% of his three last year and is a career 32.3% shooter from deep.
While Butler is shooting 3.3 triples per game in these playoffs, a lot of that came against the Milwaukee Bucks in the first round. Over the last two series, Butler is taking 2.1 threes per game and has gone without a made three in six of nine games -- including in two of the past three outings -- while shooting a putrid 21.1% from beyond the arc. He's making 0.8 treys per night in the series versus the Boston Celtics.
There's also a slight chance for blowout risk as the Celtics are 8.0-point home favorites, something that could result in reduced minutes for Butler.
Butler will probably make a three today, which is why the over on this prop is priced at -172. But I think there's a better chance he goes without a made three than what is implied by the +134 price on the under, so that's the side I'll be on. Our model is in line, projecting Butler to make 0.7 of 2.3 from the three-point line in Game 5.
Grant Williams Over 7.5 Points (-120)
Grant Williams has become a key piece for the Celtics and is one of the reasons they're still alive.
Williams saw his first action of the series in Game 2, logging 25 minutes, and he has played 28 and 29 minutes over the previous two contests. He should be a lock for quality minutes in tonight's Game 5 -- projected for 27 minutes, per our model -- and 7.5 points isn't that high of a bar to clear for a guy who can shoot the three-ball and is going to get significant run.
Speaking of his shooting, Willams has drilled at least one three-pointer in each of the last three outings, going 7 for 11 from three in that span. While he won't maintain a 63.6% three-point percentage, Williams has a much better shot of sustaining his average of 3.7 three-point tries per night from that stretch, especially with Boston absolutely letting it fly from three of late, jacking up 87 threes across Games 3 and 4.
With Williams looking likely to get 25-plus minutes and take a handful of threes, I love his chances to net at least eight points.