FanDuel Single-Game Daily Fantasy Basketball Helper: Celtics at Heat (Game 6)
In a traditional FanDuel NBA lineup, you have a $60,000 salary cap to roster nine players. The salary cap is the same in the single-game setup, but the lineup requirements are different.
You select five players of any position. One of your players will be your MVP, whose FanDuel points are multiplied by two. You also choose a STAR player (whose production is multiplied by 1.5) and a PRO (multiplied by 1.2). Two UTIL players round out the roster, and they don't receive a multiplier for their production.
This makes the five players you select essential in more than one way; you need to focus on slotting in the best plays in the multiplier slots rather than just nailing the best overall plays of the game.
At The Top
If Boston's usage tree is anything like it was in Game 5, this section is quite interesting.
Of course, they'll all take a backseat to Jimmy Butler ($17,000) as the clear standout from the Heat side after he guaranteed they'll win Game 6. Butler resides in a different galaxy from his Miami teammates in terms of offensive role, amassing team-best marks in usage rate (29.2%), potential assists per game (9.4), and touches per game (72.4) during this series. There isn't a realistic second candidate.
As for the visitors, Jayson Tatum ($17,500) isn't quite the slam dunk you'd think as the back-to-back optimal MVP in these previous wins. Tatum was second in usage rate to Marcus Smart ($12,500) at 26.5%. Smart was at 27.0%, and Jaylen Brown ($13,500) was right behind them at 25.5%.
Tatum was buoyed by 11 assists on 15 potential assists, which was a conversion rate as hot as Boston's 60.7 eFG%. As more of a role player, Smart might be a bit of a stretch for me at the MVP spot in this road contest, but Brown is interesting.
He's mirrored Tatum in usage for the series but struggled through 3-for-25 shooting (12.0%) from deep in the first four games. Banging three of his five attempts in Game 5, I am starting to see the path to the 35-point scoring effort that would make him worthy of a contrarian choice at MVP.
In The Middle
Marcus Smart and Bam Adebayo ($14,500) are clearly the class of the field in this tier, but Adebayo is firmly in it.
With just a 23.2% usage rate in the past three games (fifth on Miami), Adebayo's scoring role just isn't what you'd hope for from a top candidate at the multiplier. If not for six turnovers, he'd have had a solid night in Game 5, but I'm also concerned about a dip in rebounds (only 16 in these three games), too.
With Brogdon's injury, we can count on Derrick White ($11,000) and Al Horford ($10,500) in this spot for a 30-minute role. White's struggles against Philadelphia are well behind him at this point with a rotation-best 78.6 eFG% in this series. I kind of want to be underweight knowing that'll plummet at some point, but his role is good.
As for Horford, it was excellent to see him top 30 FanDuel points with just 6 real-life ones and minimal stocks (steals plus blocks). He's got nightly upside averaging 3.47 stocks per 36 minutes in the playoffs. If he snags eight in one game, you'll have wished you went to a STAR spot.
Caleb Martin ($10,000) also seems firmly entrenched in a full role for the Heat here, but like White, his 71.2 eFG% in this series will drop at some point.
At The Bottom
I was looking to fade another hefty eFG% (72.4%) from Gabe Vincent ($9,500), but his ankle issue now only further provides a path to regression.
At this point, there's uncertainty if Vincent suits up, and even if he does, no one knows how much he'd play compared to normal. The ineffectiveness of Kyle Lowry ($9,000), who went just 2-for-5 from the field with 4 turnovers in 30 minutes, adds a confusing wrinkle to this.
My favorite outcome would be Vincent playing and starting, but it would be to slam Lowry as a reserve. We've seen Lowry top 25 FanDuel points eight different times in the playoffs off the bench, and I'd expect he puts forth a much better effort than Thursday's at a fraction of the popularity.
Interestingly, Haywood Highsmith ($8,500) might have made a case to play ahead of Duncan Robinson ($7,500) or Max Strus ($7,000) even if Vincent returns. Highsmith's production on Thursday was as good as you'll get, shooting 66.7% from the field with a pair of steals. Still, his salary is not large for a full role if he's earned one. If he starts ahead of Kevin Love as he did in the second half on Thursday, we can go there.
Grant Williams ($7,000) seems to be Boston's clear sixth man with Brogdon's injury. He drew 27 minutes again on Thursday in a blowout. Robert Williams ($7,500) also played 17 minutes but flashed how quickly he can make those minutes count at a rate of 32.4 FanDuel points per 36. No other Celtic topped 10 minutes, and I wouldn't expect that to change in a tight game.