NBA

NBA Finals: Player Prop Bets to Target for Game 3 (Nuggets at Heat)

Austan Kas  —  @AustanKas Jun 7th, 2023

Here, we'll focus on utilizing daily fantasy basketball projections and a slew of other tools to help make money betting player props. For this article, we are focusing on the NBA odds at FanDuel Sportsbook to pinpoint spots where value can be had tonight.

The prop-betting experience on FanDuel Sportsbook is getting even more fun. You can track your player props with real-time updates and place live in-game props with ease.

Please note that betting lines and our daily projections may change throughout the day after this article is published.

Jamal Murray Under 24.5 Points (-106)

One of the knock-on effects of Kevin Love being moved into the starting five in Game 2 was that it allowed the Miami Heat to put Jimmy Butler on Jamal Murray (with Love taking Aaron Gordon, which Caleb Martin wasn't doing). It worked like a charm for Miami, as Murray was held in check.

Murray finished Game 2 with 18 points on 7-of-15 shooting. The 15 shots tied for Murray's fewest of the postseason, and the 18 points were his second-fewest. Butler gave him fits.

While I'm sure the Denver Nuggets will have some kind of countermove up their sleeves today, I think Butler's defense can continue to cause Murray problems, and that puts me on the under for Murray's points prop. Our model is in line, pegging Murray to score 23.9 points.

I also like Murray to go under 3.5 made threes, although that's juiced up to -178.

Michael Porter Jr. Over 2.5 Made Threes (-113)

Michael Porter Jr. is having a nightmare NBA Finals so far, but I think he bounces back, particularly from deep.

MPJ scored only five points last game, and he's just 3 of 17 from three in the series. However, the positive is that he's still taking a bunch of threes. There's a good chance that holds true tonight as the Heat give up a lot of three-point looks, with Miami permitting the second-highest three-point attempt rate in the regular season (43.0%) and the third-highest in the postseason (44.0%).

We know what kind of shooter Porter is. He's got the sixth-highest career three-point percentage (41.7%) among active players, and he made 41.4% of his threes this past regular season.

This prop is priced almost evenly, with the under at -111. Given Miami's defensive tendencies and MPJ's elite-level shooting, I'm jumping at the chance to grab the over at this price.