NBA Playoff Primer: April 22, 2013
We're through one game a piece, and so far, absolutely nothing unexpected has happened. Each of the top seeds won, and only one game (Denver/Golden State) was won by less than seven points. Excuse me while I stifle a few yawns.
But tonight's contests have the potential to be closer: four/five seed games will do that. Despite what your eyes told you in Game 1, the Bulls and Grizzlies are actually much better than they looked.
But how much better, exactly? For full game projections, including betting lines and win odds, you'll need to consult our numberFire Premium Section.
As a taste, though, here are each the series win odds for each team playing tonight, as well as one stat that we're going to be focused upon that could decide the game.
Game 2: Chicago Bulls at Brooklyn Nets
Most Likely Result: Brooklyn Nets in 5
| 4 Games | 5 Games | 6 Games | 7 Games | Total Win Odds | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brooklyn | 10.52% | 20.33% | 16.05% | 18.21% | 65.10% |
| Chicago | 0.00% | 6.18% | 13.89% | 14.81% | 34.89% |
Stat to Know: Nets Outside Shooting Percentage
Wanna know something funny? The Chicago Bulls actually took down the Nets in two of the Four Factors categories, and their turnover rate fell just 0.8 percent shot of Brooklyn's mark. But that .597 effective field goal percentage (eFG%) for the Nets, .110 higher than the Bulls? Good luck overcoming that one if you're Chicago.
But honestly, how often are we going to see that type of shot percentage from the Nets? None of the Brooklyn's three primary guards - Deron Williams, Joe Johnson, and C.J. Watson - shot under .600 eFG%. Gerald Wallace contributed an incredible .786 eFG% of his own from the small forward position. When you shoot the lights out the way Brooklyn did in Game 1, it's pretty easy to average 1.250 points per possession for the game.
However, that field goal percentage from the guards plus Wallace isn't likely to keep going. Not a single one of the guards averaged over .514 eFG% on the season. Gerald Wallace suffered this season in the pit of despair at .448 eFG%. The Bulls, meanwhile, finished the regular season fourth in the NBA in defensive eFG% at .477. Something tells me a repeat of Game 1 is exceptionally unlikely.
Game 2: Memphis Grizzlies at Los Angeles Clippers
Most Likely Result: Los Angeles Clippers in 5
| 4 Games | 5 Games | 6 Games | 7 Games | Total Win Odds | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Los Angeles | 14.07% | 23.51% | 18.03% | 18.19% | 73.82% |
| Memphis | 0.00% | 4.02% | 11.02% | 11.16% | 26.17% |
Stat to Know: Clippers Offensive Rebound Percentage
Lamar Odom grabbed 23.2 percent of rebounds on the offensive end. Ronny Turiaf grabbed 15.8 percent. DeAndre Jordan grabbed 14.2 percent. Jamal "Allergic to Rebounds" Crawford grabbed 11.0 percent. Marc Gasol, meanwhile, only grabbed 3.4 percent of available rebounds.
Anybody else find these numbers odd? This isn't just an outlier alert; this is a Severe Outlier Warning.
The Memphis Grizzlies finished the regular season ninth in defensive rebounding, collecting 74.2 percent of available defensive boards. They grabbed only 57.6 percent of defensive boards in Game 1. For the math disinclined, a 16.6 percent difference is pretty significant and not likely to happen again.
But just how many offensive rebounds will the Grizzlies allow? That's tough to tell. The Clippers did end up eighth in the NBA with 28.8 percent of available offensive rebounds collected, and they collected at least 30 percent of offensive rebounds in two of their four games against Memphis during the regular season. It's safe to assume that they'll be hanging around the 30 percent mark, but 21 second-chance points will be an extremely tough mark to hit for the second time.
