Breaking Down 5 Potential Cinderella Squads in the 2015 NCAA Tournament

Stephen F. Austin Lumberjacks

Stephen F. Austin comes in with the best nERD score among the teams who earned a 12 seed or worse. The Lumberjacks actually ranked 34th in RPI this year, and they have stellar offense and defense, too.

According to our math, Stephen F. Austin's offense is better than 99.5 percent of schools in the country, and their Offensive Rating (116.0) ranks 12th in the nation this year.

Thomas Walkup, a 6'4" junior guard, finds himself in the top 20 in a slew of statistics. His field goal percentage of 57.1 percent ranks 20th nationally, his Player Efficiency Rating (29.3) ranks 19th, his Offensive Rating (129.8) ranks 14th, his Offensive Win Shares (4.6) is 13th, his Win Shares (6.5) are 15th, and his Win Shares per 40 minutes (.287) ranks seventh.

The Lumberjacks aren't a one-man show, though. Jacob Parker, a 6'6" senior, has a true shooting percentage of 66.3 percent (ninth in the nation) and an Offensive Rating of 130.6 (eighth). His Win Shares per 40 minutes (.252) ranks 17th in the nation, too.

Oh, and their defense ranks in the 91st percentile in the country, and their Defensive Rating (94.3) ranks 36th nationally.

Unfortunately for the Lumberjacks, they drew a matchup with Utah, whose nERD is 16.75 (eighth in the country). Our metrics suggest that Utah is very underrated, which could spell trouble for Stephen F. Austin and the high-powered Lumberjack offense, which is the fifth best in the tournament.