NCAA Bracketology Update: Miami Makes a Move
One of the best parts of March Madness is the build up, the road to get in. Even if some schools get slotted into an ill-fated 16 seed, an NCAA Tournament berth can be historic for programs with a lacking track record.
Of course, some schools -- power conference teams and teams firmly in the AP Top 25 -- are pretty much shoo-ins to lock up a spot even before guaranteed bids are earned or conference tournaments start.
Which teams never ranked in the AP top 25 this season are looking likely to get a chance to dance, based on our bracketology projections?
These are the schools without an AP rank during the season with at least a 50% chance shot to make the tournament, per our algorithm. nERD indicates expected point differential compared to an average team.
| nF Rank | School | nERD | Proj. Record | Tournament Odds | Proj. Seed |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 57 | Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders | 8.78 | 24.5-5.5 | 89.39% | 10 |
| 46 | Illinois State Redbirds | 10.14 | 22.4-6.6 | 88.17% | 11 |
| 72 | Belmont Bruins | 6.86 | 21.0-5.0 | 87.51% | 14 |
| 58 | North Carolina-Wilmington Seahawks | 8.74 | 23.3-5.7 | 87.42% | 10 |
| 48 | Virginia Commonwealth Rams | 9.97 | 23.3-7.7 | 87.17% | 12 |
| 91 | New Mexico State Aggies | 5.26 | 22.7-4.3 | 86.81% | 13 |
| 78 | Vermont Catamounts | 6.13 | 23.8-6.2 | 86.34% | 14 |
| 35 | Dayton Flyers | 11.55 | 21.5-7.5 | 83.97% | 11 |
| 95 | Monmouth Hawks | 5.12 | 23.8-7.2 | 82.03% | 12 |
| 107 | Akron Zips | 4.13 | 23.2-6.8 | 80.66% | 13 |
| 66 | Nevada Wolf Pack | 7.64 | 23.3-7.7 | 77.41% | 12 |
| 89 | Valparaiso Crusaders | 5.4 | 22.9-7.1 | 75.81% | 13 |
| 111 | North Carolina-Asheville Bulldogs | 3.58 | 20.6-8.4 | 72.26% | 14 |
| 79 | Texas-Arlington Mavericks | 6.12 | 20.1-8.9 | 69.92% | 13 |
| 91 | Bucknell Bison | 5.26 | 22.5-8.5 | 68.11% | 15 |
| 64 | East Tennessee State Buccaneers | 7.77 | 20.8-8.2 | 67.59% | 14 |
| 31 | Texas Christian Horned Frogs | 11.67 | 19.1-10.9 | 66.77% | 7 |
| 21 | Oklahoma State Cowboys | 14.68 | 17.9-12.1 | 64.11% | 8 |
| 38 | Miami (FL) Hurricanes | 11.25 | 19.1-10.9 | 62.37% | 8 |
| 93 | Princeton Tigers | 5.2 | 17.3-8.8 | 62.26% | 15 |
| 52 | Seton Hall Pirates | 9.39 | 18.4-11.6 | 60.44% | 9 |
| 118 | Florida Gulf Coast Eagles | 2.89 | 18.9-8.1 | 57.61% | 15 |
| 34 | Wake Forest Demon Deacons | 11.6 | 17.0-13.0 | 57.41% | 8 |
- This week features four teams that weren't on the list last week: the North Carolina-Asheville Bulldogs, Seton Hall Pirates, Princeton Tigers, and Miami (FL) Hurricanes.
- UNC-Asheville (111th in nERD) has won six straight games and 11 of their past 12. Last week, they bested the High Point Panthers (254th) 74-71 and the Winthrop Eagles (125th) 104-101 in double overtime. A week ago, Winthrop owned a 61.52% chance to reach the tournament, but that dropped to just 24.11%. The Bulldogs took over as the most-likely team from the Big South to reach the Big Dance as a result.
- Seton Hall (52nd in nERD) is just 3-5 in their past eight games, but their schedule isn't exactly easy. Last week, though, they beat Georgetown (56th) on the road 68-66 in overtime as well as Providence (63rd) at home 72-70 in overtime.
- Princeton (93rd in nERD) was projected for a 15 seed last week but had just a 42.61% chance to secure a tournament spot. They've improved their odds to 62.26%. They've reeled off nine straight wins, and their three games last week were all road tilts. They beat Dartmouth (314th) 69-64, Harvard (133rd) 57-56, and Penn (181st) 64-49.
- Miami (38th in nERD) won both of their games last week, a road game against North Carolina State (83rd) 84-79 and a homestand against the Virginia Tech Hokies (55th) 74-68.
- Along with Winthrop, three teams left the list who made the cut last week. Clemson's chances dropped from 58.12% to 45.04% after an 0-2 week. Arkansas also dropped two games last week and saw their odds plummet from 76.05% to a scant 22.49%. Southern Methodist no longer made the cut but only because they climbed into the top 25 this past week. Their odds sit at 93.62%.
