NCAAB

March Madness: Previewing Thursday’s Round of 64 Matchups

Alex McDonald  —  @McDonaldA12 Mar 14th, 2017
What does our algorithm think will go down on Day 1 -- the real Day 1 -- of the NCAA Tournament?

Chances are, you haven't seen every NCAA Tournament team play this year. So, to help, let's take a quick look at each matchup that'll take place when the madness begins on Thursday, March 16th.

For reference, every game can be found on numberFire Live. Follow along there for stats and updated win probability as you watch the madness unfold in real time.

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Princeton (12) vs. Notre Dame (5)

The NCAA tournament tips off with the Princeton Tigers taking on the Notre Dame Fighting Irish. The Tigers are trying to be the fourth Ivy League team to advance to the Round of 32 in the last five years, and our metrics give them a 34% chance to do so. Both Princeton and Notre Dame play a little slower than most, and they are both in the top-10 in terms of limiting their turnovers among tournament teams.

Below are three players to keep an eye on from each team.

Player Team PPG RPG eFG%
Bonzie Colson Notre Dame 17.5 10.2 .549
V.J. Beachem Notre Dame 15.0 4.1 .540
Matt Farrell Notre Dame 14.2 2.0 .545
Devin Cannady Princeton 13.7 3.6 .563
Steven Cook Princeton 13.7 5.1 .578
Myles Stephens Princeton 12.6 4.6 .584


Here are some of the noteworthy offensive and defensive team stats for both Notre Dame and Princeton.

Team nERD O Rtg eFG% Reb% TO% D Rtg Opp. eFG% Opp. TO%
#5 Notre Dame 14.26 114.5 .540 48.7 12.4 101.6 .489 16.3
#12 Princeton 6.74 109.5 .538 50.2 13.7 93.4 .481 18.6

UNC Wilmington (12) vs. Virginia (5)

The second game of the tournament features North Carolina-Wilmington, who is back in the big dance as they face Virginia. Our metrics give Virginia a 69% chance to advance. Virginia has the slowest pace of any team in the country and they've given up 70-plus points just four times this year. UNC-Wilmington, on the other hand, is one of the faster teams in the tournament and posses the third-best offensive rating among tournament squads.

Below are three players to keep an eye on from each team.

Player Team PPG RPG eFG%
London Perrantes Virginia 12.5 3.1 .509
Devon Hall Virginia 8.7 4.4 .485
Marial Shayok Virginia 8.6 2.4 .476
C.J Bryce UNC-Wilmington 17.6 5.5 .536
Chris Flemmings UNC-Wilmington 15.8 5.5 .560
Devontae Cacok UNC-Wilmington 12.3 9.6 .799


Here is a quick breakdown of the team stats comparison.

Team nERD O Rtg eFG% Reb% TO% D Rtg Opp. eFG% Opp. TO%
#5 Virginia 17.31 109.1 .529 52.7 13.8 91.1 .458 18.9
#12 UNC-Wilmington 8.55 118.3 .557 51.5 12.5 104.1 .525 18.1

Winthrop (13) vs. Butler (4)

The third game of the tournament finds the 13-seeded Winthrop Eagles taking on the 4-seeded Butler Bulldogs. Our metrics give Butler a 71% chance to advance to the second round. Big South Player of the Year, Keon Johnson, will be a key player to watch as he tries to lead the upset for the Eagles.

Below are three players to keep an eye on from each team.

Player Team PPG RPG eFG%
Kelan Martin Butler 16.1 5.7 .497
Andrew Chrabascz Butler 11.0 4.6 .492
Kamar Baldwin Butler 10.0 3.6 .553
Keon Johnson Winthrop 22.5 3.9 .537
Xavier Cooks Winthrop 16.3 9.2 .536
Anders Broman Winthrop 8.2 1.4 .597


Here is a quick breakdown of the team stats comparison.

Team nERD O Rtg eFG% Reb% TO% D Rtg Opp. eFG% Opp. TO%
#4 Butler 14.65 113.1 .546 50.6 13.5 101.4 .507 17.8
#13 Winthrop 3.21 108.9 .537 50.7 16.0 95.9 .460 16.8

Bucknell (13) vs. West Virginia (4)

The 4-seeded West Virginia Mountaineers are one of the best defensive teams in the nation, forcing a turnover on 24.7% of their opponents possessions. Bucknell will take a balanced approach as they try to build on their Patriot League Championship.

Below are three players to keep an eye on from each team.

Player Team PPG RPG eFG%
Jevon Carter West Virginia 13.1 4.9 .537
Esa Ahmad West Virginia 11.2 4.2 .510
Nathan Adrian West Virginia 9.9 5.9 .482
Zach Thomas Bucknell 16.0 6.6 .551
Nana Foulland Bucknell 14.9 7.8 .628
Kimbral MacKenzie Bucknell 11.5 2.2 .570


Here is a quick breakdown of the team stats comparison.

Team nERD O Rtg eFG% Reb% TO% D Rtg Opp. eFG% Opp. TO%
#4 West Virginia 18.64 112.7 .518 51.8 14.2 91.2 .487 24.7
#13 Bucknell 6.23 108.1 .554 50.8 16.9 95.6 .479 17.5

South Dakota State (16) vs. Gonzaga (1)

The Gonzaga Bulldogs bring an incredible 32-1 record into the tournament, and we give them a 96% chance to beat the South Dakota State Jackrabbits. Coincidentally, Gonzaga has the best defensive rating of any team in the tournament, and South Dakota State has the worst defensive rating in the tournament. If the Jackrabbits are going to be the first 16 seed to win, they will have to get hot from deep, since 46% of their shots are three-pointers.

Below are three players to keep an eye on from each team.

Player Team PPG RPG eFG%
Nigel Williams-Goss Gonzaga 16.9 5.7 .570
Przemek Karnowski Gonzaga 12.6 6.0 .601
Jordan Mathews Gonzaga 10.4 3.2 .545
Mike Daum South Dakota St. 25.3 8.2 .591
Reed Tellinghuisen South Dakota St. 11.9 4.7 .518
Michael Orris South Dakota St. 8.3 1.9 .510


Here is a quick breakdown of the team stats comparison.

Team nERD O Rtg eFG% Reb% TO% D Rtg Opp. eFG% Opp. TO%
#1 Gonzaga 20.54 119.3 .580 55.3 14.1 86.2 .415 15.6
#16 South Dakota St. -1.17 110.8 .542 51 16.5 110.5 .539 14.5

East Tennessee State (13) vs. Florida (4)

East Tennessee State will have to be safe with the ball in this game, as they turn the ball over on 18.1% of their possessions. Our metrics give Florida a 75% chance to play again on Saturday.

Below are three players to keep an eye on from each team.

Player Team PPG RPG eFG%
KeVaughn Allen Florida 13.9 2.7 .569
Canyon Barry Florida 12.1 2.9 .500
Devin Robinson Florida 10.9 6.1 .538
T.J. Cromer East Tennessee St. 19.1 2.9 .562
Desonta Bradford East Tennessee St. 10.6 4.5 .534
Tevin Glass East Tennessee St. 8.9 6.2 .551


Here is a quick breakdown of the team stats comparison.

Team nERD O Rtg eFG% Reb% TO% D Rtg Opp. eFG% Opp. TO%
#4 Florida 18.5 110.1 .515 51.3 14.5 93.6 .457 18.4
#13 E. Tennessee St. 8.1 110.8 .558 53.3 18.1 96.1 .486 19.4

Middle Tennessee (12) vs. Minnesota (5)

Middle Tennessee enters the tournament with the best percentage chance to upset a 5 seed. They are on a 10-game winning streak and have won 20 of their last 21 games. To pile on, Minnesota really struggles shooting the ball with just a 48.6% eFG%. We still give Minnesota the slight edge, but if you're looking for the notorious 12-5 upset, this is it.

Below are three players to keep an eye on from each team.

Player Team PPG RPG eFG%
Nate Mason Minnesota 15.5 3.7 .440
Amir Coffey Minnesota 12.1 3.9 .502
Jordan Murphy Minnesota 11.2 8.8 .505
Jacorey Williams Middle Tennessee 17.3 7.3 .543
Giddy Potts Middle Tennessee 15.8 5.5 .587
Reggie Upshaw Middle Tennessee 14.5 6.8 .567


Here is a quick breakdown of the team stats comparison.

Team nERD O Rtg eFG% Reb% TO% D Rtg Opp. eFG% Opp. TO%
#5 Minnesota 12.03 104.5 .486 50.8 14.2 95.9 .449 15.2
#12 Middle Tennessee 9.41 112.5 .545 53.8 13.8 95 .474 18.1

Vanderbilt (9) vs. Northwestern (8)

Welcome to March Madness, Northwestern Wildcats! The drought is over, and they have drawn the 8 seed against the 9-seeded Vanderbilt Commodores. The Commodores take an astounding 48.6% of their shot attempts from beyond the arc. Our metrics have this game as the closest of the first round.

Below are three players to keep an eye on from each team.

Player Team PPG RPG eFG%
Bryant McIntosh Northwestern 14.4 2.7 .440
Scottie Lindsey Northwestern 14.2 3.8 .506
Vic Law Northwestern 12.5 5.7 .487
Matthew Fisher-Davis Vanderbilt 13.6 3.2 .519
Luke Kornet Vanderbilt 13.2 6.2 .483
Jeff Roberson Vanderbilt 11.0 7.1 .488


Here is a quick breakdown of the team stats comparison.

Team nERD O Rtg eFG% Reb% TO% D Rtg Opp. eFG% Opp. TO%
#8 Northwestern 10.95 107.1 .497 50.6 13.8 98.0 .460 15.5
#9 Vanderbilt 11.17 105.8 .523 50.1 16.5 101.1 .479 14.1

Xavier (11) vs. Maryland (6)

This season will likely be disappointing for the Xavier Musketeers. Senior guard Myles Davis is no longer with the school, and Edmond Sumner is out for the year with an injury. All things considered, the Musketeers have bounced back fairly well, and we give them a 43% chance to upset Maryland.

Below are three players to keep an eye on from each team.

Player Team PPG RPG eFG%
Melo Trimple Maryland 17.0 3.7 .511
Anthony Cowan Maryland 10.5 3.9 .484
Justin Jackson Maryland 10.4 6.1 .546
Trevon Bluiett Xavier 18.1 5.8 .531
J.P. Macura Xavier 14.5 4.2 .503
Rashid Gaston Xavier 8.0 6.4 .590


Here is a quick breakdown of the team stats comparison.

Team nERD O Rtg eFG% Reb% TO% D Rtg Opp. eFG% Opp. TO%
#6 Maryland 10.4 108.4 .525 50.5 16.5 99.1 .468 15.9
#11 Xavier 11.04 108.7 .516 54.8 16 104.0 .518 16

Mount St. Mary's/New Orleans (16) vs. Villanova (1)

The top-seeded Villanova Wildcats will take on the winner of Mount St. Mary's and New Orleans, who play Tuesday evening. Villanova will be heavily favored against either opponent, as you could have guessed. Mount St. Mary's has the worst offensive rating in the tournament field, and New Orleans turns the ball over the most of every team in the dance (a 20.4% rate).

Below are three players to keep an eye on from each team.

Player Team PPG RPG eFG%
Josh Hart Villanova 18.9 6.5 .589
Jalen Brunson Villanova 14.8 2.5 .608
Kris Jenkins Villanova 13.4 4.2 .520
Elijah Long Mount St. Mary's 15.4 5.4 .475
Junior Robinson Mount St. Mary's 14.1 1.6 .510
Miles Wilson Mount St. Mary's 11.3 3.6 .521
Erik Thomas New Orleans 19.5 7.8 .597
Christavious Gill New Orleans 11.6 2.2 .479
Nate Frye New Orleans 10.3 3.3 .497


Here is a quick breakdown of the team stats comparison.

Team nERD O Rtg eFG% Reb% TO% D Rtg Opp. eFG% Opp. TO%
#1 Villanova 20.13 118.0 .579 52.9 15.2 95.4 .481 17.7
#16 Mount St. Mary's -2.78 99.2 .509 44.6 17.3 99.6 .496 18.7
#16 New Orleans -1.08 103.3 .511 52.9 20.4 97.9 .496 20.1

Virginia Commonwealth (10) vs. Saint Mary's (7)


Saint Mary's is the second-best rebounding team in the tournament, as well as the second-slowest team in the field. They have also won their last 22 games against opponents not named Gonzaga. On the other side, Virginia Commonwealth has become a household name in recent years. The Rams bring a solid defense to the table and will look to force turnovers, as they have on 18.9% of opponents possessions.

Below are three players to keep an eye on from each team.

Player Team PPG RPG eFG%
Jock Landale St. Mary's 16.8 9.3 .615
Calvin Hermanson St. Mary's 13.0 2.9 .637
Emmett Naar St. Mary's 9.5 2.5 .526
JeQuan Lewis VCU 14.7 2.9 .543
Justin Tillman VCU 12.4 8.8 .590
Mo Alie-Cox VCU 9.7 4.3 .548


Here is a quick breakdown of the team stats comparison.

Team nERD O Rtg eFG% Reb% TO% D Rtg Opp. eFG% Opp. TO%
#7 St. Mary's 14.39 118.3 .579 57.5 15.1 92.9 .452 13.9
#10 VCU 10.14 106.9 .517 51.9 15.9 94.5 .470 18.9

Vermont (13) vs. Purdue (4)

The Vermont Catamounts bring a 21-game winning streak into the NCAA tournament and take on a very good rebounding team in Purdue. The Boilermakers will look to redeem themselves after being bounced in the first round as a 5 seed last year.

Below are three players to keep an eye on from each team.

Player Team PPG RPG eFG%
Caleb Swanigan Purdue 18.5 12.6 .575
Isaac Haas Purdue 12.8 5.1 .589
Vince Edwards Purdue 12.2 4.8 .548
Anthony Lamb Vermont 12.6 5.4 .543
Payton Henson Vermont 11.3 5.3 .563
Trae Bell-Haynes Vermont 11.1 2.6 .518


Here is a quick breakdown of the team stats comparison.

Team nERD O Rtg eFG% Reb% TO% D Rtg Opp. eFG% Opp. TO%
#4 Purdue 16.67 113.1 .557 55.0 16.3 94.8 .467 15.1
#13 Vermont 7.02 112.5 .555 53.1 15.2 94.2 .471 17.6

Florida Gulf Coast (14) vs. Florida State (3)

Florida Gulf Coast will try to shock the world yet again as they face Florida State in the first round. Both teams play at an above-average pace -- especially Florida State -- and both have an above-average offense. Look for points to be scored in this one.

Below are three players to keep an eye on from each team.

Player Team PPG RPG eFG%
Dwayne Bacon Florida State 16.9 4.0 .506
Jonathan Isaac Florida State 11.9 7.6 .564
Xavier Rathan-Mayes Florida State 10.4 3.0 .526
Brandon Goodwin Florida Gulf Coast 18.2 4.6 .582
Zach Johnson Florida Gulf Coast 11.8 2.8 .460
Demetris Morant Florida Gulf Coast 10.7 8.0 .757


Here is a quick breakdown of the team stats comparison.

Team nERD O Rtg eFG% Reb% TO% D Rtg Opp. eFG% Opp. TO%
#3 Florida St. 15.63 113.9 .539 52.5 14.1 98.5 .474 17.4
#14 FGCU 3.17 114.4 .557 54.5 15.6 99.1 .482 16.3

Virginia Tech (9) vs. Wisconsin (8)

Rebounding may decide this game. The Virginia Tech Hokies haul in the second-fewest offensive rebounds of any tournament team, and there is a large 6% gap in total rebounding percentage between the the Hokies and the Wisconsin Badgers. That may not seem like a lot, but it's one of the biggest rebounding gaps in the first round.

Below are three players to keep an eye on from each team.

Player Team PPG RPG eFG%
Bronson Koenig Wisconsin 14.1 2.1 .532
Ethan Happ Wisconsin 13.9 9.1 .584
Nigel Hayes Wisconsin 13.5 6.5 .479
Zach LeDay Virginia Tech 16.3 7.5 .550
Seth Allen Virginia Tech 13.1 2.3 .647
Chris Clarke Virginia Tech 11.4 7.3 .597


Here is a quick breakdown of the team stats comparison.

Team nERD O Rtg eFG% Reb% TO% D Rtg Opp. eFG% Opp. TO%
#8 Wisconsin 14.69 110.7 .519 54.6 14.1 93.4 .468 17.9
#9 Virginia Tech 10.45 112.5 .570 48.5 15.7 105.6 .509 14.6

North Dakota (15) vs. Arizona (2)

Our metrics really like the favorite in this game, with an 85% likelihood that Arizona will advance to Saturday. North Dakota won the Big Sky Conference Championship, but shouldn't be tough for Arizona. North Dakota does have one of the best team mascot names in the tournament as the Fighting Hawks, though.

Below are three players to keep an eye on from each team.

Player Team PPG RPG eFG%
Allonzo Trier Arizona 17.3 5.0 .566
Lauri Markkanen Arizona 15.6 7.1 .586
Rawle Alkins Arizona 11.0 5.1 .526
Quinton Hooker North Dakota 19.1 4.6 .563
Geno Crandall North Dakota 15.6 4.1 .562
Corey Baldwin North Dakota 10.3 3.9 .581


Here is a quick breakdown of the team stats comparison.

Team nERD O Rtg eFG% Reb% TO% D Rtg Opp. eFG% Opp. TO%
#2 Arizona 15.38 113.3 .537 55.1 15.0 97.2 .471 15.6
#15 North Dakota -0.19 108.7 .542 50.7 16.1 98.3 .497 18.4

Nevada (12) vs. Iowa State (5)

Both Nevada and Iowa State do a great job of protecting the ball, so there won't be many turnovers in their contest. Nevada has done a great job at defending the three-pointer this year, while Iowa State is one of the best three-point shooting teams out there. It'll be an interesting matchup to watch.

Below are three players to keep an eye on from each team.

Player Team PPG RPG eFG%
Monte Morris Iowa St. 16.3 4.8 .524
Nazareth Mitrou-Long Iowa St. 15.5 4.7 .601
Deonte Burton Iowa St. 14.8 6.2 .504
Marcus Marshall Nevada 19.8 2.4 .545
Cameron Oliver Nevada 15.8 8.7 .540
Jordan Caroline Nevada 14.8 9.2 .504


Here is a quick breakdown of the team stats comparison.

Team nERD O Rtg eFG% Reb% TO% D Rtg Opp. eFG% Opp. TO%
#5 Iowa St. 15.61 112.5 .548 47.5 12.6 100.1 .490 17.2
#12 Nevada 9.47 112.2 .527 52.6 13.7 99.5 .479 14.0