NCAAB

March Madness: Previewing Friday’s Round of 64 Matchups

Chances are, you haven't seen every NCAA Tournament team play this year. So, to help, let's take a quick look at each matchup that'll take place when the madness rolls on Friday, March 17th.

For reference, every game can be found on numberFire Live. Follow along there for stats and updated win probability as you watch the madness unfold in real time.

Oklahoma State (10) vs. Michigan (7)

Friday tips off with two of the best offenses in the tournament. The Oklahoma State Cowboys take on the Big Ten Conference Champion Michigan. The biggest difference with these teams is the pace in which they play -- the Cowboys play at the third-fastest pace of any tournament team while the Wolverines play at the third-slowest pace. As you can see below, both teams have strong nERD ratings, which measures the number of points we'd expect a team to win by against an average squad on a neutral court.

Below are three players to keep an eye on from each team.

Player Team PPG RPG eFG%
Derrick Walton Michigan 15.2 4.7 0.453
Zak Irvin Michigan 12.8 4.5 0.407
Moritz Wagner Michigan 12.0 4.2 0.532
Jawun Evans Oklahoma St. 19.0 3.3 0.479
Jeffrey Carroll Oklahoma St. 17.4 6.6 0.609
Phil Forte Oklahoma St. 13.3 2.6 0.564


Here is a quick breakdown of the team stats comparison.

Team nERD O Rtg eFG% Reb% TOV% D Rtg Opp. eFG% Opp. TOV%
#7 Michigan 14.42 116.1 0.567 48.5 13.2 102.1 0.519 17.6
#10 OK St. 15.01 117.3 0.537 52.5 15.4 107.0 0.531 18.4


New Mexico State (14) vs. Baylor (3)

Baylor has been upset in the first round in each of the last two years of the tournament. They'll try to end that streak as they take on New Mexico State. Both teams are above-average rebounding teams, hauling in nearly 55% of available rebounds. If the 14-seeded New Mexico State is going to pull off the upset, the rebounding battle will likely play a large role.

Below are three players to keep an eye on from each team.

Player Team PPG RPG eFG%
Johnathan Motley Baylor 17.3 9.9 0.528
Manu Lecomte Baylor 12.4 1.9 0.563
Jo Acuil Baylor 9.2 7.0 0.560
Ian Baker New Mexico St. 16.6 4.3 0.469
Braxton Huggins New Mexico St. 13.6 2.7 0.571
Eli Chuha New Mexico St. 12.4 9.0 0.611


Here is a quick breakdown of the team stats comparison.

Team nERD O Rtg eFG% Reb% TOV% D Rtg Opp. eFG% Opp. TOV%
#3 Baylor 16.61 112.0 0.532 56.6 17.4 96.6 0.453 15.0
#14 NM St. 5.08 112.4 0.532 54.7 16.7 95.7 0.463 17.1


Seton Hall (9) vs. Arkansas (8)

Arkansas versus Seton Hall is one of the closer matchups that we expect to see in the first round. Seton Hall is a good rebounding team lead by Angel Delgado's 13.1 rebounds per game.

Below are three players to keep an eye on from each team.

Player Team PPG RPG eFG%
Dusty Hannahs Arkansas 14.6 1.6 0.535
Daryl Macon Arkansas 13.4 2.6 0.557
Moses Kingsley Arkansas 11.8 7.9 0.469
Khadeen Carrington Seton Hall 16.9 3.1 0.492
Desi Rodriguez Seton Hall 15.9 5.1 0.506
Angel Delgado Seton Hall 15.3 13.1 0.548


Here is a quick breakdown of the team stats comparison.

Team nERD O Rtg eFG% Reb% TOV% D Rtg Opp. eFG% Opp. TOV%
#8 Arkansas 11.25 112.1 0.517 50.3 14.2 103.0 0.480 15.7
#9 Seton Hall 9.76 105.2 0.502 54.6 16.5 100.7 0.490 15.8


Iona (14) vs. Oregon (3)

The Iona Gaels are back in the tournament and take on the 3-seeded Oregon Ducks. The Ducks have nearly a 15-point advantage in terms of net rating, and our metrics really like them to advance to the Round of 32.

Below are three players to keep an eye on from each team.

Player Team PPG RPG eFG%
Dillon Brooks Oregon 16.3 2.9 0.582
Tyler Dorsey Oregon 13.3 3.3 0.542
Chris Boucher Oregon 11.8 6.1 0.591
Jordan Washington Iona 17.9 7.4 0.552
Jon Severe Iona 11.3 3.7 0.555
Rickey McGill Iona 10.8 3.9 0.529


Here is a quick breakdown of the team stats comparison.

Team nERD O Rtg eFG% Reb% TOV% D Rtg Opp. eFG% Opp. TOV%
#3 Oregon 16.33 114.4 0.555 52.7 14.7 94.1 0.459 17.3
#14 Iona 2.43 110.0 0.534 48.4 14.7 104.3 0.496 15.6


Jacksonville State (15) vs. Louisville (2)

Jacksonville State doesn't excel in any one aspect of the game, and pose a little threat to Louisville. We give just an 8% chance that we see a major upset in this game.

Below are three players to keep an eye on from each team.

Player Team PPG RPG eFG%
Donovan Mitchell Louisville 15.7 4.6 0.506
Quentin Snider Louisville 12.7 2.7 0.491
Deng Adel Louisville 11.9 4.5 0.473
Malcolm Drumwright Jacksonville St. 12.6 2.4 0.536
Erik Durham Jacksonville St. 11.1 5.0 0.669
Norbertas Giga Jacksonville St. 10.4 8.1 0.508


Here is a quick breakdown of the team stats comparison.

Team nERD O Rtg eFG% Reb% TOV% D Rtg Opp. eFG% Opp. TOV%
#2 Louisville 18.36 111.6 0.514 53.9 13.6 94.8 0.451 17.3
#15 JV St. -0.58 105.8 0.526 53.1 18.0 102.6 0.485 14.7


Southern California (11) vs. Southern Methodist (6)

Southern California is coming off of a thrilling win in their play-in game against Providence on Wednesday night. Our metrics really like Southern Methodist, though, and we give them nearly a 20% chance to advance to the Elite Eight, which would potentially include a win over Duke.

Below are three players to keep an eye on from each team.

Player Team PPG RPG eFG%
Semi Ojeleye SMU 18.8 6.7 0.580
Sterling Brown SMU 13.3 6.5 0.540
Shake Milton SMU 13.1 4.1 0.558
Bennie Boatwright USC 14.6 4.3 0.518
Chimezie Metu USC 14.5 7.8 0.549
Jordan McLaughlin USC 13.1 3.4 0.530


Here is a quick breakdown of the team stats comparison.

Team nERD O Rtg eFG% Reb% TOV% D Rtg Opp. eFG% Opp. TOV%
#6 SMU 15.78 116.7 0.547 56.9 14.5 93.7 0.461 16.3
#11 USC 9.0 110.7 0.519 50.3 13.8 102.9 0.497 15.6


Texas Southern (16) vs. North Carolina (1)

North Carolina is obviously one of our favorite teams in the tournament -- we currently give them the second-highest chance to win the National Championship. Texas Southern is coming off a Southwest Athletic Conference Championship and draw last year's National Championship finalist.

Below are three players to keep an eye on from each team.

Player Team PPG RPG eFG%
Justin Jackson UNC 18.1 4.6 0.534
Joel Berry UNC 14.8 3.3 0.566
Kennedy Meeks UNC 12.6 9.1 0.542
Zach Lofton TXSO 17.0 3.8 0.465
Demontrae Jefferson TXSO 14.3 2.1 0.434
Kevin Scott TXSO 9.7 4.9 0.495


Here is a quick breakdown of the team stats comparison.

Team nERD O Rtg eFG% Reb% TOV% D Rtg Opp. eFG% Opp. TOV%
#1 UNC 19.54 117.1 0.526 58.5 13.6 97.4 0.484 16.9
#16 TXSO -2.3 106.2 0.482 48.9 14.5 102.5 0.489 16.6


Rhode Island (11) vs. Creighton (6)

Rhode Island is one of our favorite first-round upset picks as they take on Creighton. The 6-seeded Creighton is just 5-6 in their last 11 games. Meanwhile, Rhode Island is on an eight-game winning streak entering the tournament.

Below are three players to keep an eye on from each team.

Player Team PPG RPG eFG%
Marcus Foster Creighton 18.3 2.9 0.537
Justin Patton Creighton 13.1 6.2 0.708
Khyri Thomas Creighton 12.3 5.7 0.570
E.C. Matthews Rhode Island 14.9 4.2 0.521
Hassan Martin Rhode Island 14.1 7.0 0.597
Jared Terrell Rhode Island 12.5 2.8 0.481


Here is a quick breakdown of the team stats comparison.

Team nERD O Rtg eFG% Reb% TOV% D Rtg Opp. eFG% Opp. TOV%
#6 CREI 14.16 112.8 0.579 49.3 15.4 99.6 0.498 17.1
#11 URI 10.66 108.3 0.506 52.3 14.4 95.7 0.452 17.4


UC-Davis (16) vs. Kansas (1)

There isn't much to see here, as usual with the 1 seed versus 16 seed games. The Kansas Jayhawks are one of the best teams in the country, and they will face the California-Davis Aggies after their win on Wednesday night in the play-in game. The Aggies have the second-worst offensive rating of any team in the tournament field.

Below are three players to keep an eye on from each team.

Player Team PPG RPG eFG%
Frank Mason Kansas 20.8 4.1 0.572
Josh Jackson Kansas 16.4 7.2 0.549
Devonte' Graham Kansas 13.1 3.3 0.547
Brynton Lemar UC-Davis 16.1 3.3 0.514
Chima Moneke UC-Davis 14.4 9.4 0.522
Siler Schneider UC-Davis 10.5 3.4 0.480


Here is a quick breakdown of the team stats comparison.

Team nERD O Rtg eFG% Reb% TOV% D Rtg Opp. eFG% Opp. TOV%
#1 Kansas 18.34 114.4 0.559 52.8 15.7 100.1 0.479 16.1
#16 UC-Davis -3.11 99.5 0.493 51.0 17.7 97.3 0.485 17.7


Wichita State (10) vs. Dayton (7)

This is one of the most interesting games in the first round. We have Wichita State as the 10th-best team in the entire country with a 17.27 nERD. Dayton is a solid team as well, especially since they have gotten healthy. However, we still give Wichita State a 66% chance to pull of the "upset".

Below are three players to keep an eye on from each team.

Player Team PPG RPG eFG%
Charles Cooke Dayton 16.1 5.1 0.540
Kendall Pollard Dayton 14.1 5.1 0.546
Scoochie Smith Dayton 13.5 3.1 0.549
Markis McDuffie Wichita St. 11.8 5.7 0.535
Landry Shamet Wichita St. 11.1 2.8 0.606
Darral Willis Jr. Wichita St. 10.2 5.3 0.543


Here is a quick breakdown of the team stats comparison.

Team nERD O Rtg eFG% Reb% TOV% D Rtg Opp. eFG% Opp. TOV%
#7 Dayton 11.15 109.5 0.544 50.1 15.4 95.2 0.477 18.9
#10 Wich St. 17.27 117.7 0.547 56.0 13.8 89.5 0.438 17.8


Troy (15) vs. Duke (2)

The preseason favorite, Duke, may have not lived up to the hype in the regular season, but they are still a 2 seed and we give them a 74% chance to make the Sweet 16. Troy will look to take advantage of Duke losing in the first round in two of the last four tournaments in which they were at least a 3 seed.

Below are three players to keep an eye on from each team.

Player Team PPG RPG eFG%
Luke Kennard Duke 20.1 5.3 0.591
Jayson Tatum Duke 16.9 7.3 0.507
Grayson Allen Duke 14.1 3.7 0.500
Jordon Varnado Troy 16.5 7.1 0.557
Wesley Person Troy 14.8 2.6 0.557
Jeremy Hollimon Troy 12.1 2.5 0.561


Here is a quick breakdown of the team stats comparison.

Team nERD O Rtg eFG% Reb% TOV% D Rtg Opp. eFG% Opp. TOV%
#2 Duke 17.12 115.7 0.548 52.0 14.3 100.2 0.475 15.0
#15 Troy 1.25 111.6 0.536 52.0 15.5 102.0 0.493 15.6


Kansas State (11) vs. Cincinnati (5)

Cincinnati is one of the best teams in the country at protecting the ball, they turn the ball over on just 13.1% on their possessions. Kansas State is coming off a 95-88 win over Wake Forest in the play-in game on Tuesday night.

Below are three players to keep an eye on from each team.

Player Team PPG RPG eFG%
Jacob Evans Cincinnati 13.7 4.1 0.567
Kyle Washington Cincinnati 13.1 6.7 0.535
Gary Clark Cincinnati 10.6 7.8 0.548
Wesley Iwundu Kansas St. 12.9 6.4 0.528
Kamau Stokes Kansas St. 11.9 2.6 0.457
D.J. Johnson Kansas St. 11.4 5.8 0.626


Here is a quick breakdown of the team stats comparison.

Team nERD O Rtg eFG% Reb% TOV% D Rtg Opp. eFG% Opp. TOV%
#6 Cincinnati 14.92 113.6 0.523 53.3 13.1 91.6 0.443 18.3
#11 Kansas St. 11.9 105.6 0.524 49.1 17.0 98.6 0.489 19.4


Michigan State (9) vs. Miami (8)

Michigan State is a popular school when it comes to March Madness. This year's team is a little worse than normal, and they've drawn the 9 seed. Miami joins Michigan State with a below-average offense as they are both in the bottom 13 teams in terms of offensive rating. The winner of this game will get the reward of likely playing Kansas in the Round of 32.

Below are three players to keep an eye on from each team.

Player Team PPG RPG eFG%
Davon Reed Miami 15.0 4.8 0.537
Ja'Quan Newton Miami 13.4 3.6 0.470
Bruce Brown Miami 11.9 5.8 0.514
Miles Bridges Michigan St. 16.7 8.3 0.558
Nick Ward Michigan St. 13.7 6.5 0.583
Cassius Winston Michigan St. 6.7 1.9 0.494


Here is a quick breakdown of the team stats comparison.

Team nERD O Rtg eFG% Reb% TOV% D Rtg Opp. eFG% Opp. TOV%
#8 Miami 11.83 106.7 0.512 53.4 16.8 97.9 0.472 16.1
#9 Mich St. 10.23 104.8 0.539 52.6 18.3 99.9 0.463 14.1


Northern Kentucky (15) vs. Kentucky (2)

The battle to truly find out who the best team in Kentucky is! In all seriousness, the in-state matchup does offer at least some intrigue. The Kentucky Wildcats are one of the best teams in the country and, as usual, are loaded with NBA talent. The Northern Kentucky Norse shoot a three-pointer on 42.1% of their shots attempts, which should be fun to watch.

Below are three players to keep an eye on from each team.

Player Team PPG RPG eFG%
Malik Monk Kentucky 20.4 2.5 0.550
De'Aaron Fox Kentucky 16.1 4.1 0.494
Edrice Adebayo Kentucky 13.3 7.8 0.614
Drew McDonald Northern Kentucky 16.4 7.7 0.543
LaVone Holland Northern Kentucky 14.3 2.8 0.514
Carson Williams Northern Kentucky 10.5 5.8 0.597


Here is a quick breakdown of the team stats comparison.

Team nERD O Rtg eFG% Reb% TOV% D Rtg Opp. eFG% Opp. TOV%
#2 Kentucky 19.62 114.4 0.532 53.4 13.7 95.4 0.474 17.3
#15 NKU 0.91 107.7 0.534 53.3 16.8 101.0 0.495 15.3


Marquette (10) vs. South Carolina (7)

Another really close 7 vs 10 matchup showcases South Carolina and Marquette. These two teams are very different. South Carolina wins games with their defense -- they turn opponents over on 21.4% of possessions and have a 90.8 defensive rating. They really struggle on the offensive end as they have an offensive rating of just 101.5 and have an effective field goal percentage (eFG%) of 47.2% which is the worst in the entire tournament field.

Marquette, on the other hand, thrives on offense and struggles on defense. The Golden Eagles have an effective field goal percentage of 57.6%, over 10 points higher than the Gamecocks. However, they also let up an effective field goal rate of 51.9% to their opponents, which is the sixth-worst in the field.

Below are three players to keep an eye on from each team.

Player Team PPG RPG eFG%
Sindarius Thornwell South Carolina 21.0 7.2 0.501
PJ Dozier South Carolina 13.6 4.8 0.439
Chris Silva South Carolina 9.8 5.7 0.550
Markus Howard Marquette 13.2 2.3 0.658
JaJuan Johnson Marquette 11.8 4.0 0.525
Luke Fischer Marquette 11.0 5.9 0.646


Here is a quick breakdown of the team stats comparison.

Team nERD O Rtg eFG% Reb% TOV% D Rtg Opp. eFG% Opp. TOV%
#7 S. Carolina 12.29 101.5 0.472 50.7 16.1 90.8 0.448 21.4
#10 Marquette 12.36 115.7 0.576 49.7 15.3 105.2 0.519 16.4


Kent State (14) vs. UCLA (3)

If you enjoy offense, UCLA is one of the most fun teams to watch. They play at the second-fastest pace in the tournament, have the best offensive rating, and have the highest effective field goal percentage of any team as well. Kent State is not nearly as powerful on the offensive end with just an effective field goal rate of 48.4%.

Below are three players to keep an eye on from each team.

PlayerTeamPPGRPGeFG%
Lonzo BallUCLA14.66.10.660
TJ LeafUCLA16.28.30.652
Bryce AlfordUCLA15.82.50.603
Jimmy HallKent St.18.910.50.524
Jaylin WalkerKent St.15.64.30.490
Deon EdwinKent St.13.05.60.509


Here is a quick breakdown of the team stats comparison.

Team nERD O Rtg eFG% Reb% TOV% D Rtg Opp. eFG% Opp. TOV%
#3 UCLA 16.39 120.7 0.595 52.7 13.7 100.6 0.484 14.1
#14 Kent State 1.43 106.8 0.484 54.1 15.2 100.4 0.492 17.2