March Madness: Previewing Friday’s Round of 64 Matchups
Chances are, you haven't seen every NCAA Tournament team play this year. So, to help, let's take a quick look at each matchup that'll take place when the madness rolls on Friday, March 17th.
For reference, every game can be found on numberFire Live. Follow along there for stats and updated win probability as you watch the madness unfold in real time.
Oklahoma State (10) vs. Michigan (7)
Friday tips off with two of the best offenses in the tournament. The Oklahoma State Cowboys take on the Big Ten Conference Champion Michigan. The biggest difference with these teams is the pace in which they play -- the Cowboys play at the third-fastest pace of any tournament team while the Wolverines play at the third-slowest pace. As you can see below, both teams have strong nERD ratings, which measures the number of points we'd expect a team to win by against an average squad on a neutral court.
Below are three players to keep an eye on from each team.
Player | Team | PPG | RPG | eFG% |
---|---|---|---|---|
Derrick Walton | Michigan | 15.2 | 4.7 | 0.453 |
Zak Irvin | Michigan | 12.8 | 4.5 | 0.407 |
Moritz Wagner | Michigan | 12.0 | 4.2 | 0.532 |
Jawun Evans | Oklahoma St. | 19.0 | 3.3 | 0.479 |
Jeffrey Carroll | Oklahoma St. | 17.4 | 6.6 | 0.609 |
Phil Forte | Oklahoma St. | 13.3 | 2.6 | 0.564 |
Here is a quick breakdown of the team stats comparison.
Team | nERD | O Rtg | eFG% | Reb% | TOV% | D Rtg | Opp. eFG% | Opp. TOV% |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
#7 Michigan | 14.42 | 116.1 | 0.567 | 48.5 | 13.2 | 102.1 | 0.519 | 17.6 |
#10 OK St. | 15.01 | 117.3 | 0.537 | 52.5 | 15.4 | 107.0 | 0.531 | 18.4 |
New Mexico State (14) vs. Baylor (3)
Baylor has been upset in the first round in each of the last two years of the tournament. They'll try to end that streak as they take on New Mexico State. Both teams are above-average rebounding teams, hauling in nearly 55% of available rebounds. If the 14-seeded New Mexico State is going to pull off the upset, the rebounding battle will likely play a large role.
Below are three players to keep an eye on from each team.
Player | Team | PPG | RPG | eFG% |
---|---|---|---|---|
Johnathan Motley | Baylor | 17.3 | 9.9 | 0.528 |
Manu Lecomte | Baylor | 12.4 | 1.9 | 0.563 |
Jo Acuil | Baylor | 9.2 | 7.0 | 0.560 |
Ian Baker | New Mexico St. | 16.6 | 4.3 | 0.469 |
Braxton Huggins | New Mexico St. | 13.6 | 2.7 | 0.571 |
Eli Chuha | New Mexico St. | 12.4 | 9.0 | 0.611 |
Here is a quick breakdown of the team stats comparison.
Team | nERD | O Rtg | eFG% | Reb% | TOV% | D Rtg | Opp. eFG% | Opp. TOV% |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
#3 Baylor | 16.61 | 112.0 | 0.532 | 56.6 | 17.4 | 96.6 | 0.453 | 15.0 |
#14 NM St. | 5.08 | 112.4 | 0.532 | 54.7 | 16.7 | 95.7 | 0.463 | 17.1 |
Seton Hall (9) vs. Arkansas (8)
Arkansas versus Seton Hall is one of the closer matchups that we expect to see in the first round. Seton Hall is a good rebounding team lead by Angel Delgado's 13.1 rebounds per game.
Below are three players to keep an eye on from each team.
Player | Team | PPG | RPG | eFG% |
---|---|---|---|---|
Dusty Hannahs | Arkansas | 14.6 | 1.6 | 0.535 |
Daryl Macon | Arkansas | 13.4 | 2.6 | 0.557 |
Moses Kingsley | Arkansas | 11.8 | 7.9 | 0.469 |
Khadeen Carrington | Seton Hall | 16.9 | 3.1 | 0.492 |
Desi Rodriguez | Seton Hall | 15.9 | 5.1 | 0.506 |
Angel Delgado | Seton Hall | 15.3 | 13.1 | 0.548 |
Here is a quick breakdown of the team stats comparison.
Team | nERD | O Rtg | eFG% | Reb% | TOV% | D Rtg | Opp. eFG% | Opp. TOV% |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
#8 Arkansas | 11.25 | 112.1 | 0.517 | 50.3 | 14.2 | 103.0 | 0.480 | 15.7 |
#9 Seton Hall | 9.76 | 105.2 | 0.502 | 54.6 | 16.5 | 100.7 | 0.490 | 15.8 |
Iona (14) vs. Oregon (3)
The Iona Gaels are back in the tournament and take on the 3-seeded Oregon Ducks. The Ducks have nearly a 15-point advantage in terms of net rating, and our metrics really like them to advance to the Round of 32.
Below are three players to keep an eye on from each team.
Player | Team | PPG | RPG | eFG% |
---|---|---|---|---|
Dillon Brooks | Oregon | 16.3 | 2.9 | 0.582 |
Tyler Dorsey | Oregon | 13.3 | 3.3 | 0.542 |
Chris Boucher | Oregon | 11.8 | 6.1 | 0.591 |
Jordan Washington | Iona | 17.9 | 7.4 | 0.552 |
Jon Severe | Iona | 11.3 | 3.7 | 0.555 |
Rickey McGill | Iona | 10.8 | 3.9 | 0.529 |
Here is a quick breakdown of the team stats comparison.
Team | nERD | O Rtg | eFG% | Reb% | TOV% | D Rtg | Opp. eFG% | Opp. TOV% |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
#3 Oregon | 16.33 | 114.4 | 0.555 | 52.7 | 14.7 | 94.1 | 0.459 | 17.3 |
#14 Iona | 2.43 | 110.0 | 0.534 | 48.4 | 14.7 | 104.3 | 0.496 | 15.6 |
Jacksonville State (15) vs. Louisville (2)
Jacksonville State doesn't excel in any one aspect of the game, and pose a little threat to Louisville. We give just an 8% chance that we see a major upset in this game.
Below are three players to keep an eye on from each team.
Player | Team | PPG | RPG | eFG% |
---|---|---|---|---|
Donovan Mitchell | Louisville | 15.7 | 4.6 | 0.506 |
Quentin Snider | Louisville | 12.7 | 2.7 | 0.491 |
Deng Adel | Louisville | 11.9 | 4.5 | 0.473 |
Malcolm Drumwright | Jacksonville St. | 12.6 | 2.4 | 0.536 |
Erik Durham | Jacksonville St. | 11.1 | 5.0 | 0.669 |
Norbertas Giga | Jacksonville St. | 10.4 | 8.1 | 0.508 |
Here is a quick breakdown of the team stats comparison.
Team | nERD | O Rtg | eFG% | Reb% | TOV% | D Rtg | Opp. eFG% | Opp. TOV% |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
#2 Louisville | 18.36 | 111.6 | 0.514 | 53.9 | 13.6 | 94.8 | 0.451 | 17.3 |
#15 JV St. | -0.58 | 105.8 | 0.526 | 53.1 | 18.0 | 102.6 | 0.485 | 14.7 |
Southern California (11) vs. Southern Methodist (6)
Southern California is coming off of a thrilling win in their play-in game against Providence on Wednesday night. Our metrics really like Southern Methodist, though, and we give them nearly a 20% chance to advance to the Elite Eight, which would potentially include a win over Duke.
Below are three players to keep an eye on from each team.
Player | Team | PPG | RPG | eFG% |
---|---|---|---|---|
Semi Ojeleye | SMU | 18.8 | 6.7 | 0.580 |
Sterling Brown | SMU | 13.3 | 6.5 | 0.540 |
Shake Milton | SMU | 13.1 | 4.1 | 0.558 |
Bennie Boatwright | USC | 14.6 | 4.3 | 0.518 |
Chimezie Metu | USC | 14.5 | 7.8 | 0.549 |
Jordan McLaughlin | USC | 13.1 | 3.4 | 0.530 |
Here is a quick breakdown of the team stats comparison.
Team | nERD | O Rtg | eFG% | Reb% | TOV% | D Rtg | Opp. eFG% | Opp. TOV% |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
#6 SMU | 15.78 | 116.7 | 0.547 | 56.9 | 14.5 | 93.7 | 0.461 | 16.3 |
#11 USC | 9.0 | 110.7 | 0.519 | 50.3 | 13.8 | 102.9 | 0.497 | 15.6 |
Texas Southern (16) vs. North Carolina (1)
North Carolina is obviously one of our favorite teams in the tournament -- we currently give them the second-highest chance to win the National Championship. Texas Southern is coming off a Southwest Athletic Conference Championship and draw last year's National Championship finalist.
Below are three players to keep an eye on from each team.
Player | Team | PPG | RPG | eFG% |
---|---|---|---|---|
Justin Jackson | UNC | 18.1 | 4.6 | 0.534 |
Joel Berry | UNC | 14.8 | 3.3 | 0.566 |
Kennedy Meeks | UNC | 12.6 | 9.1 | 0.542 |
Zach Lofton | TXSO | 17.0 | 3.8 | 0.465 |
Demontrae Jefferson | TXSO | 14.3 | 2.1 | 0.434 |
Kevin Scott | TXSO | 9.7 | 4.9 | 0.495 |
Here is a quick breakdown of the team stats comparison.
Team | nERD | O Rtg | eFG% | Reb% | TOV% | D Rtg | Opp. eFG% | Opp. TOV% |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
#1 UNC | 19.54 | 117.1 | 0.526 | 58.5 | 13.6 | 97.4 | 0.484 | 16.9 |
#16 TXSO | -2.3 | 106.2 | 0.482 | 48.9 | 14.5 | 102.5 | 0.489 | 16.6 |
Rhode Island (11) vs. Creighton (6)
Rhode Island is one of our favorite first-round upset picks as they take on Creighton. The 6-seeded Creighton is just 5-6 in their last 11 games. Meanwhile, Rhode Island is on an eight-game winning streak entering the tournament.
Below are three players to keep an eye on from each team.
Player | Team | PPG | RPG | eFG% |
---|---|---|---|---|
Marcus Foster | Creighton | 18.3 | 2.9 | 0.537 |
Justin Patton | Creighton | 13.1 | 6.2 | 0.708 |
Khyri Thomas | Creighton | 12.3 | 5.7 | 0.570 |
E.C. Matthews | Rhode Island | 14.9 | 4.2 | 0.521 |
Hassan Martin | Rhode Island | 14.1 | 7.0 | 0.597 |
Jared Terrell | Rhode Island | 12.5 | 2.8 | 0.481 |
Here is a quick breakdown of the team stats comparison.
Team | nERD | O Rtg | eFG% | Reb% | TOV% | D Rtg | Opp. eFG% | Opp. TOV% |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
#6 CREI | 14.16 | 112.8 | 0.579 | 49.3 | 15.4 | 99.6 | 0.498 | 17.1 |
#11 URI | 10.66 | 108.3 | 0.506 | 52.3 | 14.4 | 95.7 | 0.452 | 17.4 |
UC-Davis (16) vs. Kansas (1)
There isn't much to see here, as usual with the 1 seed versus 16 seed games. The Kansas Jayhawks are one of the best teams in the country, and they will face the California-Davis Aggies after their win on Wednesday night in the play-in game. The Aggies have the second-worst offensive rating of any team in the tournament field.
Below are three players to keep an eye on from each team.
Player | Team | PPG | RPG | eFG% |
---|---|---|---|---|
Frank Mason | Kansas | 20.8 | 4.1 | 0.572 |
Josh Jackson | Kansas | 16.4 | 7.2 | 0.549 |
Devonte' Graham | Kansas | 13.1 | 3.3 | 0.547 |
Brynton Lemar | UC-Davis | 16.1 | 3.3 | 0.514 |
Chima Moneke | UC-Davis | 14.4 | 9.4 | 0.522 |
Siler Schneider | UC-Davis | 10.5 | 3.4 | 0.480 |
Here is a quick breakdown of the team stats comparison.
Team | nERD | O Rtg | eFG% | Reb% | TOV% | D Rtg | Opp. eFG% | Opp. TOV% |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
#1 Kansas | 18.34 | 114.4 | 0.559 | 52.8 | 15.7 | 100.1 | 0.479 | 16.1 |
#16 UC-Davis | -3.11 | 99.5 | 0.493 | 51.0 | 17.7 | 97.3 | 0.485 | 17.7 |
Wichita State (10) vs. Dayton (7)
This is one of the most interesting games in the first round. We have Wichita State as the 10th-best team in the entire country with a 17.27 nERD. Dayton is a solid team as well, especially since they have gotten healthy. However, we still give Wichita State a 66% chance to pull of the "upset".
Below are three players to keep an eye on from each team.
Player | Team | PPG | RPG | eFG% |
---|---|---|---|---|
Charles Cooke | Dayton | 16.1 | 5.1 | 0.540 |
Kendall Pollard | Dayton | 14.1 | 5.1 | 0.546 |
Scoochie Smith | Dayton | 13.5 | 3.1 | 0.549 |
Markis McDuffie | Wichita St. | 11.8 | 5.7 | 0.535 |
Landry Shamet | Wichita St. | 11.1 | 2.8 | 0.606 |
Darral Willis Jr. | Wichita St. | 10.2 | 5.3 | 0.543 |
Here is a quick breakdown of the team stats comparison.
Team | nERD | O Rtg | eFG% | Reb% | TOV% | D Rtg | Opp. eFG% | Opp. TOV% |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
#7 Dayton | 11.15 | 109.5 | 0.544 | 50.1 | 15.4 | 95.2 | 0.477 | 18.9 |
#10 Wich St. | 17.27 | 117.7 | 0.547 | 56.0 | 13.8 | 89.5 | 0.438 | 17.8 |
Troy (15) vs. Duke (2)
The preseason favorite, Duke, may have not lived up to the hype in the regular season, but they are still a 2 seed and we give them a 74% chance to make the Sweet 16. Troy will look to take advantage of Duke losing in the first round in two of the last four tournaments in which they were at least a 3 seed.
Below are three players to keep an eye on from each team.
Player | Team | PPG | RPG | eFG% |
---|---|---|---|---|
Luke Kennard | Duke | 20.1 | 5.3 | 0.591 |
Jayson Tatum | Duke | 16.9 | 7.3 | 0.507 |
Grayson Allen | Duke | 14.1 | 3.7 | 0.500 |
Jordon Varnado | Troy | 16.5 | 7.1 | 0.557 |
Wesley Person | Troy | 14.8 | 2.6 | 0.557 |
Jeremy Hollimon | Troy | 12.1 | 2.5 | 0.561 |
Here is a quick breakdown of the team stats comparison.
Team | nERD | O Rtg | eFG% | Reb% | TOV% | D Rtg | Opp. eFG% | Opp. TOV% |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
#2 Duke | 17.12 | 115.7 | 0.548 | 52.0 | 14.3 | 100.2 | 0.475 | 15.0 |
#15 Troy | 1.25 | 111.6 | 0.536 | 52.0 | 15.5 | 102.0 | 0.493 | 15.6 |
Kansas State (11) vs. Cincinnati (5)
Cincinnati is one of the best teams in the country at protecting the ball, they turn the ball over on just 13.1% on their possessions. Kansas State is coming off a 95-88 win over Wake Forest in the play-in game on Tuesday night.
Below are three players to keep an eye on from each team.
Player | Team | PPG | RPG | eFG% |
---|---|---|---|---|
Jacob Evans | Cincinnati | 13.7 | 4.1 | 0.567 |
Kyle Washington | Cincinnati | 13.1 | 6.7 | 0.535 |
Gary Clark | Cincinnati | 10.6 | 7.8 | 0.548 |
Wesley Iwundu | Kansas St. | 12.9 | 6.4 | 0.528 |
Kamau Stokes | Kansas St. | 11.9 | 2.6 | 0.457 |
D.J. Johnson | Kansas St. | 11.4 | 5.8 | 0.626 |
Here is a quick breakdown of the team stats comparison.
Team | nERD | O Rtg | eFG% | Reb% | TOV% | D Rtg | Opp. eFG% | Opp. TOV% |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
#6 Cincinnati | 14.92 | 113.6 | 0.523 | 53.3 | 13.1 | 91.6 | 0.443 | 18.3 |
#11 Kansas St. | 11.9 | 105.6 | 0.524 | 49.1 | 17.0 | 98.6 | 0.489 | 19.4 |
Michigan State (9) vs. Miami (8)
Michigan State is a popular school when it comes to March Madness. This year's team is a little worse than normal, and they've drawn the 9 seed. Miami joins Michigan State with a below-average offense as they are both in the bottom 13 teams in terms of offensive rating. The winner of this game will get the reward of likely playing Kansas in the Round of 32.
Below are three players to keep an eye on from each team.
Player | Team | PPG | RPG | eFG% |
---|---|---|---|---|
Davon Reed | Miami | 15.0 | 4.8 | 0.537 |
Ja'Quan Newton | Miami | 13.4 | 3.6 | 0.470 |
Bruce Brown | Miami | 11.9 | 5.8 | 0.514 |
Miles Bridges | Michigan St. | 16.7 | 8.3 | 0.558 |
Nick Ward | Michigan St. | 13.7 | 6.5 | 0.583 |
Cassius Winston | Michigan St. | 6.7 | 1.9 | 0.494 |
Here is a quick breakdown of the team stats comparison.
Team | nERD | O Rtg | eFG% | Reb% | TOV% | D Rtg | Opp. eFG% | Opp. TOV% |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
#8 Miami | 11.83 | 106.7 | 0.512 | 53.4 | 16.8 | 97.9 | 0.472 | 16.1 |
#9 Mich St. | 10.23 | 104.8 | 0.539 | 52.6 | 18.3 | 99.9 | 0.463 | 14.1 |
Northern Kentucky (15) vs. Kentucky (2)
The battle to truly find out who the best team in Kentucky is! In all seriousness, the in-state matchup does offer at least some intrigue. The Kentucky Wildcats are one of the best teams in the country and, as usual, are loaded with NBA talent. The Northern Kentucky Norse shoot a three-pointer on 42.1% of their shots attempts, which should be fun to watch.
Below are three players to keep an eye on from each team.
Player | Team | PPG | RPG | eFG% |
---|---|---|---|---|
Malik Monk | Kentucky | 20.4 | 2.5 | 0.550 |
De'Aaron Fox | Kentucky | 16.1 | 4.1 | 0.494 |
Edrice Adebayo | Kentucky | 13.3 | 7.8 | 0.614 |
Drew McDonald | Northern Kentucky | 16.4 | 7.7 | 0.543 |
LaVone Holland | Northern Kentucky | 14.3 | 2.8 | 0.514 |
Carson Williams | Northern Kentucky | 10.5 | 5.8 | 0.597 |
Here is a quick breakdown of the team stats comparison.
Team | nERD | O Rtg | eFG% | Reb% | TOV% | D Rtg | Opp. eFG% | Opp. TOV% |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
#2 Kentucky | 19.62 | 114.4 | 0.532 | 53.4 | 13.7 | 95.4 | 0.474 | 17.3 |
#15 NKU | 0.91 | 107.7 | 0.534 | 53.3 | 16.8 | 101.0 | 0.495 | 15.3 |
Marquette (10) vs. South Carolina (7)
Another really close 7 vs 10 matchup showcases South Carolina and Marquette. These two teams are very different. South Carolina wins games with their defense -- they turn opponents over on 21.4% of possessions and have a 90.8 defensive rating. They really struggle on the offensive end as they have an offensive rating of just 101.5 and have an effective field goal percentage (eFG%) of 47.2% which is the worst in the entire tournament field.
Marquette, on the other hand, thrives on offense and struggles on defense. The Golden Eagles have an effective field goal percentage of 57.6%, over 10 points higher than the Gamecocks. However, they also let up an effective field goal rate of 51.9% to their opponents, which is the sixth-worst in the field.
Below are three players to keep an eye on from each team.
Player | Team | PPG | RPG | eFG% |
---|---|---|---|---|
Sindarius Thornwell | South Carolina | 21.0 | 7.2 | 0.501 |
PJ Dozier | South Carolina | 13.6 | 4.8 | 0.439 |
Chris Silva | South Carolina | 9.8 | 5.7 | 0.550 |
Markus Howard | Marquette | 13.2 | 2.3 | 0.658 |
JaJuan Johnson | Marquette | 11.8 | 4.0 | 0.525 |
Luke Fischer | Marquette | 11.0 | 5.9 | 0.646 |
Here is a quick breakdown of the team stats comparison.
Team | nERD | O Rtg | eFG% | Reb% | TOV% | D Rtg | Opp. eFG% | Opp. TOV% |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
#7 S. Carolina | 12.29 | 101.5 | 0.472 | 50.7 | 16.1 | 90.8 | 0.448 | 21.4 |
#10 Marquette | 12.36 | 115.7 | 0.576 | 49.7 | 15.3 | 105.2 | 0.519 | 16.4 |
Kent State (14) vs. UCLA (3)
If you enjoy offense, UCLA is one of the most fun teams to watch. They play at the second-fastest pace in the tournament, have the best offensive rating, and have the highest effective field goal percentage of any team as well. Kent State is not nearly as powerful on the offensive end with just an effective field goal rate of 48.4%.
Below are three players to keep an eye on from each team.
Player | Team | PPG | RPG | eFG% |
---|---|---|---|---|
Lonzo Ball | UCLA | 14.6 | 6.1 | 0.660 |
TJ Leaf | UCLA | 16.2 | 8.3 | 0.652 |
Bryce Alford | UCLA | 15.8 | 2.5 | 0.603 |
Jimmy Hall | Kent St. | 18.9 | 10.5 | 0.524 |
Jaylin Walker | Kent St. | 15.6 | 4.3 | 0.490 |
Deon Edwin | Kent St. | 13.0 | 5.6 | 0.509 |
Here is a quick breakdown of the team stats comparison.
Team | nERD | O Rtg | eFG% | Reb% | TOV% | D Rtg | Opp. eFG% | Opp. TOV% |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
#3 UCLA | 16.39 | 120.7 | 0.595 | 52.7 | 13.7 | 100.6 | 0.484 | 14.1 |
#14 Kent State | 1.43 | 106.8 | 0.484 | 54.1 | 15.2 | 100.4 | 0.492 | 17.2 |