Watch March Madness With numberFire Live
numberFire Live is our one-of-a-kind platform that tracks games of various sports, including college basketball. Win probability is tracked for every play, and this shows exactly what that sequence added or subtracted from each squad's win probability.
And at the end of each game, that produces a handy-dandy win probability chart.
By using numberFire Live, you can see basic and advanced statistics in real time, from team field goal percentage to player usage rate and nERD. nERD -- our very own measure of a player's overall contributions, based on efficiency -- adds another feature to Live by telling us which player would be the most valuable, if the game were to end at any point in time. Basically, the player with the highest nERD in the game has been most efficient and most valuable to his squad.
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With all that covered, you're probably ready to run out and grab another computer monitor already. But before you do, let me give you an example of why March Madness and numberFire Live go together like bacon and eggs.
Not Another Play-In Game
In the final matchup of the First Four, the USC Trojans and Providence Friars provided us with one of the best play-in games we've probably ever seen. All the two teams were fighting for was an 11 seed and the opportunity to play SMU in the Round of 64, but with just one look at the final win probability chart, you'll know why the game was so exciting.
For those of you wondering, no, that is not the Appalachian mountain range. It's the colliding win probabilities of a classic March Madness basketball game.
Going into the game, the Trojans' probability of advancing to Round 1 was nearly 59%. That didn't last long, though, as USC's first-half win probability peaked at 78.96% with over 18 minutes remaining. From there, their chances slowly dropped to just over 64% with eight minutes to play, at which point in time the Trojans' chances fell off a cliff.
By the 7:08 mark, Providence had over a 54% likelihood of winning, and as the game progressed, they built upon that figure to max out at a win probability of 92.73%. From that lofty a height, the only way to go is down, and that's where the Friars went. And I mean all the way down.
With just under seven minutes left in the second half and the Friars holding onto a one-point lead, the game was a virtual toss-up. As you can see, from that point on, it was all Trojans. They gradually increased their chances of winning and out-scored the Friars 16-11 over the last seven minutes, en route to a 75-71 come-from-behind victory.
According to Live, the four most impactful plays revolved around a very crucial juncture in the game.
| Half | Time Left | Team | Play Type | WP Added |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2nd | 8:59 | USC | Three-point make | 10.8% |
| 2nd | 6:47 | USC | Two-point make | 9.5% |
| 2nd | 5:53 | USC | Two-point make | 9.3% |
| 2nd | 5:41 | PROV | Two-point make | 9.3% |
Outweighed three-to-one in game-shifting possessions down the stretch, it's no wonder Providence came out on the losing end of things. They just didn't make enough plays when it counted most.
They also fell victim to a big game from SC's Bennie Boatwright, who, by way of his 35.43 nERD, was the most valuable player of the game. On a usage of 32.1%, he tallied 24 points, 7 rebounds and 3 assists in 33 minutes of action, all for an offensive rating of 144.9 and a big-time tournament win.
With the craziness that is March Madness, numberFire Live is the perfect tool to keep track of all the action while trying to figure out if your bracket is still alive after the latest upset.
