The 4 Most Overrated Teams in the NCAA Tournament

It's not that the Selection Committee improperly rates teams based on their resumes, it's that a team's resume can be misleading. Winning close games over and over again, for instance, may lead to more victories, but that's also a recipe for regression. At some point, that team's going to start losing nail-biters.

And that's one of the reasons -- among many -- as to why the analysts here at numberFire won't just use win-loss record to determine how strong a team actually is. Instead, we analyze team strength through our nERD metric, which tells us the number of points we'd expect a team to win by against an average one on a neutral court. A team with a nERD of, say, 14, means that they should be an ordinary team by roughly 14 points. A nERD of -6 means they'd lose by 6.

So, according to nERD, which teams are the most overrated in this year's NCAA Tournament?

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