College Basketball Daily Fantasy Helper: Wednesday 12/5/18
College basketball season is back! And this year, with it comes the return of college basketball DFS.
March Madness is still four months away, but you can get in all the college hoops hype by playing daily contests at FanDuel today. If you've played NBA DFS before, it's quite simple: pick a total of eight players -- four guards, three forwards and one utility spot you can use for either position. Stay within the $50,000 salary cap and field the team you think will score the most fantasy points.
Where scoring differs from NBA is in the blocks and steals categories, with each worth two FanDuel points apiece rather than the three you get in daily NBA contests.
Now that you're in the know, we can attack today's main slate, which locks at 7:00 p.m. EST and consists of seven games. We get four games with at least a 145.0 over/under and four involving a top-25 team.
|Wednesday, December 5th|
|#19 Ohio State at Illinois|
|VCU at Texas|
|Oklahoma State at Tulsa|
|Temple at #21 Villanova|
|#24 Nebraska at Minnesota|
|TCU at SMU|
|Washington at #1 Gonzaga|
Which players should you be targeting, and why?
Alex Robinson, TCU ($8,600): Tonight's Texas-sized matchup between the TCU Horned Frogs and SMU Mustangs has been given a 145.5 over/under with just a one-point spread in favor of TCU. That puts the Frogs' implied total at 73.25 points -- sixth on the slate but 1.75 back of the second-highest. Of the 14 teams on the slate, SMU is the worst by KenPom.com's adjusted defensive efficiency, ranking 184th and giving up 103.7 points per 100 possessions. TCU's offense tallied 110.2 per 100, so it wouldn't be surprising to see they put up 75 or more. And if that's the case, expect Alex Robinson to be heavily involved. To this point, the senior guard has averaged 34.3 FanDuel points with 13.5 points, 9.5 assists, 4.2 rebounds and 1.7 steals per game. His 20.6% usage rate is fifth on the team, however, his 48.3% assist rate is over 17% higher than anyone else on the team, per Sports Reference.
James Palmer Jr., Nebraska ($7,700): A 139.5 over/under and 72.50 implied total doesn't really scream, "Roster Nebraska Cornhuskers!" However, with teams bunched up between 70 and 75 points, the 'Huskers are still within 2.75 points of the second-highest total (owned by Villanova Wildcats). Plus, Nebraska should get a slight boost in tempo as they face the Minnesota Golden Gophers, who average 3.5 more possessions per 100 by Ken Pom's adjusted tempo. Palmer is set up for a high-ceiling game. The senior carries a ridiculously high 32.5% usage and averages a team-high 18.3 points on 13.3 field goal attempts and 6.3 from three. While he may be a little risky in cash games, he's a prime tournament option if you want to pivot off of Robinson, Bane and others price above $8K on FanDuel.
Jaylen Fisher, TCU ($6,400): Paying up for Robinson or fellow backcourt mate Desmond Bane -- $8,100 -- isn't a bad idea, but Fisher could turn the tide for your Wednesday lineups. After missing the first three games of the season with a knee injury, the 6'2" guard has played 7, 31 and 28 minutes since his return. Last time out, he started his second game of the season and produced 14 points, 6 rebounds and 3 assists, with 2 combined blocks and steals, all for a total of 28.7 FanDuel points. To hit four-times value, all he needs is 25.6 FanDuel points at tonight's price tag, which is certainly within reach given the matchup.
Keyshawn Woods, Ohio State ($5,200): The Ohio State Buckeyes should be one of the main teams to target this evening, as their 74.50 total is third on the slate after Gonzaga and 'Nova. Instead of paying the prices that come with those teams and their top players, roster some value and give yourself flexibility with Woods. Teammate Luther Muhammad is considered a game-time decision on Wednesday, and if he sits it would vacate 27.9 minutes. Woods is first in line for more minutes, having started two games and averaging 25.9 minutes a game in the Buckeye backcourt. In the only two games he's logged 30 or more minutes, Woods has accounted for 28.6 and 25.8 FanDuel points. You're looking for just over 20 for him to hit value, but he has a 25-plus point ceiling, making him viable in all formats.
Lawson Korita, Tulsa ($4,900): Treating Korita as a straight punt play could be a good strategy to employ if you want to fit in two guys above $8,000. However, he should return you some decent production. After starting just one game through the first six, the junior guard has started two straight for Tulsa, while he's played 36 and 27 minutes, respectively. With the uptick in playing time, he's turned the opportunity into 23.0 and 18.1 FanDuel points on nine shots in each game. This game against Oklahoma State is expected to be the second-highest score on of the night, with a 147.0 over/under on the Hurricane's home floor. Take the obvious value and move on.
Rui Hachimura, Gonzaga ($8,300): Hachimura is one of the best players in the country, hands down. He was named to the Watch List for the Citizen Naismith Trophy prior to the season, and he's expected to be a top pick in the upcoming NBA Draft. Through eight games, he has a 28.3 player efficiency rating (PER) while he boasts averages of 21.9 points, 6.1 rebounds, 1.5 assists and 1.5 blocks-plus steals (32.3 FanDuel points). He is averaging 35.0 FanDuel points over the last four games, which have included matchups against Creighton, Duke and Arizona. As Ken Pom's 52nd-ranked team, Washington is a step down in competition and expected to cede a slate-high 85.25 points to the high-power Zags.
Eric Paschall, Villanova ($7,000): As previously mentioned, the defending champion Wildcats have the second-highest total of the night as they get set to take on Temple in the fight for Philadelphia. They won't go overlooked by name value, but they could still be a little undervalued. At his price, Paschall could be the best point-per-dollar play of the night. The Owls are 72nd in defensive efficiency and come into the game having given up 70 or more points in three of eight games. They're also outside the top 200 in defensive rebounding and outside the top 100 in total rebounding. Paschall averages 5.3 rebounds to go with his 15.8 points per game, he's playing 35-plus minutes, and is fresh off a 27-point outing. Don't overthink it.
Isiaha Mike, SMU ($6,500): On the other side of that Big 12-American battle in Dallas, you have a couple of options in the Mustangs' backcourt. Ethan Chargois has flashed a higher ceiling -- averaging 27.9 FanDuel points -- but he comes in at $7,500, or a cool grand more than Mike. At first glance, Mike's 18.1 FanDuel points per game are nowhere near worthy of a price in the mid-6,000s, but he's really upped his production of late. Going back to November 20, he has been handed 27 to 31 minutes in each of SMU's five games in that span. Outside of the first game -- in which he tallied 17.2 FanDuel points -- he has at least 21.5 FanDuel points in each, topping 26 -- tonight's salary-implied value -- on two occasions. As more of a stretch-four, he should avoid the tough defense of big man Kevin Samuel down low.
Kyle Young, Ohio State ($5,600): The Buckeyes are in a good spot, but they seem to spread the love by both minutes and points, so it follows that production (from all standpoints, including fantasy) is fairly even across the team. But that's the same reason we're looking to the guys below $6,000. A starter in seven of eight, Young is contributing 7.9 points, 5.1 rebounds, 1.0 assists and 0.9 blocks-plus-steals en route to 16.9 FanDuel points a game. That's not awful, but Young hasn't always been the recipient of fantasy-relevant minutes. He has only played 23 or more minutes in 4 games, but in 3 of those he's gone for double-digit points, tallying 13.2, 18.6, 20.8 and 29.1 FanDuel points in them. He's averaged 25.0 in the last two alone, which would return nearly 4.5 FanDuel poitns per $1,000 at this price.
Brett Oswalt is not a FanDuel employee. In addition to providing DFS gameplay advice, Brett Oswalt also participates in DFS contests on FanDuel using his personal account, username BRO14THEKID. While the strategies and player selections recommended in his articles are his personal views, he may deploy different strategies and player selections when entering contests with his personal account. The views expressed in his articles are the author's alone and do not necessarily reflect the views of FanDuel.