College Basketball Betting Guide: Friday 3/12/21
numberFire has built comprehensive algorithms to pinpoint the bets with the highest probability of returning money, whether you are betting on the total, the spread, or the moneyline. For those new to numberFire, we use a five-star system to show which bets you should be targeting for any given game. Stars represent how much you should risk on a wager relative to what you would normally bet.
For example, if you would normally bet $110 to win $100 on a -110 spread wager, if we give a 3-star ranking, we suggest risking three times that amount: $330 to win $300. Here are the best bets for this weekend with guidance from our model.
Please note that lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. Please check here to make sure you're seeing the most updated information. You can also look at our oddsFire tool to get a feel for what the betting public is doing.
Baylor vs. Oklahoma State
Oklahoma State +9.0: 3 Stars out of 5
Baylor are 22-1 on the season, and they have likely wrapped up a 1 seed in the NCAA Tournament. But surely they will look to strive for success in the Big 12 Tournament, as well. They are clearly one of the top teams in the country, with our nERD-based rankings slotting them fifth.
Oklahoma State is a quality team who should not be overlooked, and we have them ranked 31st. The Cowboys have won back-to-back games against West Virginia (16th by nERD), so they are playing well and have proven they can compete against top competition.
Our model has Baylor winning a tight game at 72.54-69.26. Baylor are the clear favorites, but we hand Oklahoma State a 66.30% chance to cover the spread and give this betting opportunity a three-star rating.
Rutgers vs. Illinois
Rutgers +7.5: 3 Stars out of 5
Rutgers defeated Indiana in the first round of the Big Ten Tournament, and they appear poised to qualify for the NCAA Tournament for the first time since 1991. Our rankings have Rutgers at 21st in the country, so they certainly deserve respect, and they already defeated Illinois earlier this season.
We have Illinois ranked second, but they will still face a difficult challenge in this game. We project Rutgers to hang tough and the Illini to win 71.65-69.12. This is only a 2.53-point margin, so almost five points fewer than the 7.5-point spread.
Our model gives Rutgers a 64.38% chance to cover the 7.5-point spread and lists this as another three-star wager.
Missouri vs. Arkansas
Missouri +3.0: 1 Star out of 5
Missouri has had an inconsistent season, but they are capable of beating anyone when they are at their best. The Tigers have defeated Tennessee (18th by nERD), Illinois (2nd) and Alabama (7th) this season.
We rank Arkansas 15th, but Missouri has proven they can beat teams of this caliber. Our model projects this to be a tightly contested game, giving the Razorbacks a 56.8% chance to win outright. We have a projected score of 72.88-71.17, so we have this as a closer matchup than the betting line indicates.
Overall, our model forecasts a 54.39% likelihood of Missouri covering the 3.0-point spread, and that is enough to make this a modest one-star bet for Friday night.
