March Madness Betting Guide: The First Four
numberFire has built comprehensive algorithms to pinpoint the bets with the highest probability of returning money, whether you are betting on the total, the spread, or the moneyline. For those new to numberFire, we use a five-star system to show which bets you should be targeting for any given game. Stars represent how much you should risk on a wager relative to what you would normally bet.
For example, if you would normally bet $110 to win $100 on a -110 spread wager, if we give a three-star ranking, we suggest risking three times that amount: $330 to win $300. Here are the best bets for this weekend with guidance from our model.
Please note that lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. Please check here to make sure you're seeing the most updated information. You can also look at our oddsFire tool to get a feel for what the betting public is doing.
Texas Southern vs. Mount St. Mary’s
Mount St. Mary’s +2.0: 2 Stars out of 5
Mount St. Mary's had a good season in the NEC, but they were somewhat of a surprise champion in the conference tournament after finishing third in the regular season. Similarly, Texas Southern finished in third place in the SWAC, but they did have a strong 10-3 conference record with a 16-8 record overall.
We rank the Mountaineers 204th in our nERD rankings, putting them well ahead of 262nd-ranked Texas Southern. Our model predicts a 57.15% chance of a Mountaineers victory, and it projects a 58.45% likelihood of them covering the 2.0-point spread.
We like Mount Saint Mary’s to win outright despite being the slight underdog, so we rate MSM to cover 2.0 points as a two-star betting opportunity.
Appalachian State vs. Norfolk State
Over 133.5: 4 Stars out of 5
Appalachian State vs Norfolk State should be an exciting matchup, as our model projects a close game with App State winning by a score of 71.81-70.19. We give App State a 56.4% win probability, so this game is close to a toss up.
Norfolk scored 70-plus points in 17 of their 23 games this season, and App State scored 70-plus points in 14 of their 28 games. We project both teams to be around the 70-point mark, which would easily put the game over the 133.5-point total.
In fact, we forecast a point total of 142.0. This is 8.5 points higher than the listed game total. We project a 67.26% likelihood of the over hitting and have it as a four-star bet.
Michigan State vs. UCLA
UCLA +2.0: 2 Stars out of 5
Michigan State and UCLA are two of the blue bloods of college basketball, but after mediocre seasons, they both find themselves in the play-in round.
Michigan State had impressive wins against Illinois, Ohio State and Michigan over their last seven games of the season, but they also took three double-digit losses in that span, so they have been far from consistent. UCLA has been streaky, as well, losing their last four games but winning their previous four before that.
Our model gives UCLA a 55.4% win probability despite being a 2.0-point underdog. Our algorithm projects a 60.05% likelihood of the Bruins covering the 2.0-point spread, so we have this as a two-star bet for Thursday.
