College Basketball Betting Guide for 3/2/22: 3 Conference Tournament Bets to Make
March Madness is on its way, and conference tournaments are starting up all across the country.
Tonight, we see tournament action in the Big South, Ohio Valley Conference, and Northeast Conference.
Which games should draw our attention? Let's find out.
Please note that lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. Please check here to make sure you're seeing the most updated information. You can also look at our oddsFire tool to get a feel for what the betting public is doing.
Hampton Pirates at High Point Panthers
This game is part of the Big South Championship's first round with the High Point Panthers the 7 seed and the Hampton Pirates the 10 seed.
numberFire's model doesn't see a lot of value on the spread (High Point -5.5) or moneyline (High Point -255) but does like the under as a three-unit recommendation.
The projected total (67.9 to 62.2 for High Point) adds up to 130.1, and that's well shy of the posted total of 137.5. My model is projecting a total of 133.5 points as well, leaving some room for the under.
In their most recent meeting, the total was 135.5, and these two blasted past it for 165 total points. However, the Panthers posted an adjusted offensive rating of 126.6 (a season-high), and the Pirates were at 108.9 (a top-four mark for them).
Expect it to play more like their first matchup, which was a 132-point outing, with more typical efficiency.
St. Francis (PA) Red Flash vs. Wagner Seahawks
This matchup out of the Northeast Conference features a huge favorite.
The Wagner Seahawks, the 2 seed in the NEC tournament, are -800 on the moneyline and have a spread of -10.5.
The Saint Francis (PA) Red Flash, the 7 seed, are 2-8 in their past 10 games, a span that was kicked off by a 69-54 loss to the Seahawks back on January 27th.
Wagner, meanwhile, is 7-3 in their past 10, though that includes a 2-3 record in their past five. Two of their losses were in overtime, however.
numberFire's model likes the Seahawks to cover with a 72.8% probability, making this one a green-light special.
Sacred Heart Pioneers at Long Island University Sharks
Sticking in the NEC here for the 3-versus-6 matchup, we've got another sizable spread.
The Long Island University Sharks are 8.5-point favorites over the Sacred Heart Pioneers. They've got inverse records in their past 10 (7-3 for the Sharks and 3-7 for the Pioneers).
Sacred Heart boasts one of the absolute worst adjusted defenses in the nation. In total, their nERD score is -9.81, suggesting they should lose to an average team by 9.8 points on a neutral floor. LIU is at a -3.69, and this game is in Brooklyn.
numberFire's model likes LIU to win with an 83.7% probability -- besting their -385 moneyline odds (79.8%). They're rating as a one-star lean to cover the 8.5-point spread.
The under (155.5) is also getting a three-star suggestion -- same as the Long Island moneyline. These two teams have combined for 134 and 154 points in two games so far this season.
