College Basketball Betting Guide for Wednesday 3/9/22: 3 Conference Tournament Games to Target
March Madness is on its way, and conference tournaments are starting up all across the country.
Today, we see tournament action across quite a few conferences, including the ACC, Big East, Big Ten, Big 12, Pac-12, and SEC.
Which games should draw our attention? Let's find out.
Please note that lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. Please check here to make sure you're seeing the most updated information. You can also look at our oddsFire tool to get a feel for what the betting public is doing.
Binghamton Bearcats vs. Vermont Catamounts
With a plethora of college basketball games to choose from tonight, chances are this American East semifinal isn't at the top of most people's lists.
It has blowout written all over it, with the Vermont Catamounts favored by 21.5 points over the Binghamton Bearcats. Our model has Vermont winning this contest 94.7% of the time. Yikes.
And yet, this is a massive spread to cover, so there might be some value in backing the Bearcats -- if you can stomach it.
There's no denying that Vermont is the far, far better squad. They're a top-100 team in numberFire's power rankings, and according to BartTorvik. com, they're 40th in adjusted offense and 109th in adjusted defense.
On the other hand, the Bearcats are way down at 289th in our power rankings, and they rate poorly in both adjusted offense (324th) and defense (242nd). There's a reason they're a sub-.500 team.
That said, it isn't a gimme that the Catamounts trounce the Bearcats by over 21 points tonight. While Vermont bulldozed Binghamton by 31 points in their first meeting this season, the margin of victory was 17 in their second matchup.
And despite the talent disparity, there are paths to Binghamton staying within striking distance.
For all of their woes, the Bearcats shoots fairly well from long range (102nd in three-point percentage), which could help them keep things from getting out of hand.
They should also be able to prevent Vermont from getting easy second-chance points. Tthe Catamounts are just 297th in offensive rebounding rate, whereas the Bearcats are 142nd in defensive rebounding rate.
Lastly, Vermont plays at a slower pace, ranking just 279th in adjusted tempo, and fewer possessions may keep them from running up the score too much.
In all, our model sees the Binghamton covering at a 60.47% clip and rates the bet as a two-star play.
Navy Midshipmen vs. Colgate Raiders
The Patriots League championship features the Navy Midshipmen and Colgate Raiders, and the Raiders are favored by 7.0 points.
However, Navy might not be getting enough credit in this one. Although the Midshipmen are abysmal in adjusted offense (318th), they play good defense (44th) and are top-70 in both offensive and defensive rebounding rate.
Colgate is somewhat the opposite, as they're a top-100 adjusted offense but rank 200th in adjusted defense. That offense comes from their elite accuracy from beyond the arc; they're actually second overall in three-point percentage.
However, in addition to their lackluster defense, they struggle in other areas like offensive rebounding rate (218th) and free throw rate (300th).
While the Raiders blew the doors off the Midshipmen in their first meeting, Navy held their own in a five-point road loss the second time around. Both teams rank outside the top 100, per KenPom, so it's not like Colgate is an elite opponent for Navy, either.
As long as Colgate isn't lights out from deep, Navy should be able to hang around. numberFire's model predicts a Navy cover 53.29% of the time, which is a one-star wager.
Georgetown Hoyas vs. Seton Hall Pirates
Like our first pick, we have another game that isn't necessarily expected to be close, except this time we're siding with the favorite.
The Big East tournament gets underway today, and the Seton Hall Pirates (6 seed) are 9.5-point favorites over the Georgetown Hoyas (11 seed).
Seton Hall is solid in adjusted offense (74th), and they rate even better defensively (34th).
The same can't be said for Georgetown. They're middle-of-the-pack on offense (138th) but fall off when it comes to defense (250th). The Hoyas have really struggled this year, winning just six games overall and going winless in conference play.
KenPom rates Seton Hall as the 35th-best team in the country, while Georgetown is down at 182nd.
Our model projects a Pirates win 90.8% of the time and also gives them a 63.89% chance of covering the spread. Picking the Pirates to cover looks like the value play, and it's rated at three stars.
